Delaware Political Weekly: January 26-February 1, 2024
1. The Congressional Hauls. Sarah McBride, of course, leads the way. The figures:
Sarah McBride
Q4 Raise – $457k
Total Raise – $1.23m
On Hand – $850k
Eugene Young
Q4 Raise – $104k
Total Raise – $287k
On Hand – $199k
Colleen Davis
Q4 Raise – $41k
Total Raise – $145k
On Hand – $76k
Were I a challenger to Sarah, I would be especially concerned with the Q4 numbers, both Sarah’s and the challengers’. Eugene Young’s fundraising is respectable, and would be competitive in most cases. Don’t know if he can tip the scales in his favor against such a fundraising juggernaut, though. BTW, likely armed with Carper’s Rolodex, LBR finished the year with $2.32 mill on hand for her run for the Senate seat being vacated by Carper.
2. Claire Snyder-Hall Running For RD 14 Seat. The one being vacated by Speaker Pete. I’m pretty sure that both Snyder-Hall and Marty Rendon will support someone other than Val Longhurst for Speaker. There are, however, warning signs that Speaker Pete’s minions are spreading rumors that neither candidate is Suxco enough. As if it matters in a district full of people from elsewhere. However, Speaker Pete has a $100K war chest, and could use it to try to rehab the political careers of either Park City Kathy and/or her one-time paramour, Newark’s Ernie Lopez, who presumably has found new lodging since his wife tossed him out. Here is Snyder-Hall’s press release:
On February 1, Claire Snyder-Hall filed to run for the Delaware State House in RD 14, which includes Rehoboth Beach, Dewey, and parts of Lewes. The seat is currently occupied by Rep. Pete Schwartzkopf, who is retiring at the end of the session. Calling the campaign “Claire for Delaware,” Snyder-Hall says she is a pro-choice Democrat here to listen and to serve the people of coastal Delaware.
Before moving to Rehoboth Beach full-time in 2011, Snyder-Hall was a tenured faculty member at George Mason University, where she taught political science and administered several academic graduate programs.
In 2012, shortly after moving to the First State, Snyder-Hall was elected chair of the Democratic committee for RD 14. She ran for the Delaware State Senate in 2014 against Ernie Lopez.
In 2015, Snyder-Hall began her first stint with Common Cause Delaware (CCDE), a non-partisan statewide organization that works to protect and strengthen democracy. During her two years leading the organization, she organized the successful campaign to rescind Delaware’s call for an Article V constitutional convention, thus thwarting the Koch Brothers’ agenda, among other things.
In 2017, Snyder-Hall resigned from CCDE and moved back to her hometown, Sarasota, Florida, to spend time with her mother during her final years. After her mother passed away, the Snyder-Halls decided to return to Rehoboth Beach. “We could have moved anywhere in the world,” Snyder-Hall says, “and we considered a number of places. But ultimately we decided our hearts are in Rehoboth. It’s an incredible community, and we have a lot of friends here.”
Upon returning to the First State, Snyder-Hall again took the helm at Common Cause DE and was quickly promoted to Executive Director. Through her lobbying work for the organization, Snyder-Hall says she has developed strong relationships with legislators and has learned how to get things done in the General Assembly.
At the end of January, Snyder-Hall resigned her position as CCDE to run for House in RD 14. “2024 will be one of the most important elections of our lifetime,” she says. “This year, choice is on the ballot, democracy is on the ballot, and the American Dream itself is on the ballot, as we face multiple crises in healthcare, education, housing, and the environment that are eroding our prosperity and quality of life. I had not intended to run for office again, but my former supporters kept encouraging me, so I decided to put my hat in the ring.”
Snyder-Hall has already received early endorsements from sitting legislators in both the House and the Senate. “I am proud to endorse Claire Snyder-Hall for State House,” says Sen. Laura Sturgeon. “We are both former teachers, and I know Claire shares my commitment to public education, and her well-proven collaborative skills will be a great asset in Dover. The fact that she would be the first woman to represent RD 14 is icing on the cake.”
Rep. Eric Morrison also endorses Snyder-Hall: “I support Claire because I know she wants to go to Dover to represent everyday Delawareans. She will not be swayed by special interests that do not have at heart the best interests of the people. I also know how dedicated Claire is to making positive change in the community and that she will work hard in Dover.”
She has also been endorsed by Progressive Democrats of Delaware and Delaware Get Money Out.
The “Claire for Delaware” campaign will prioritize direct voter contact, and Snyder-Hall plans to knock on doors all over the district.
3. Get Better Soon, Colleen. Colleen Davis has admirably gone public with some health challenges she is experiencing. Which could well explain her relatively-unimposing fundraising figures for Congress. Never mind them. Get well soon, Colleen.
4. Debbie Harrington Enters Race For Lt. Governor. While she announced last July, she only filed for the ballot last week. She’s always had an impressive resume, and is a very accomplished person. However, the idea of Harrington as a candidate has so far exceeded the reality of Harrington as a candidate. In 2018, she finished a distant second to Monique Johns in a three-way D primary for RD 9. In 2020, she lost to incumbent R Kevin Hensley in RD 9, and got 45.2% of the vote. Not sure I see a path forward for her candidacy for Lt. Governor, but that’s why they have elections–we shall see.
5. Filings. D Rep. Cyndie Romer (25th RD) for reelection.
That’s all I’ve got this week. What’d I miss, and whaddayathink?
To what extent does a 3 to 1 advantage in funds raised by McBride mean for that overall race?
In a state with 3 counties, all reachable within a few hours, after a certain point, how does one spend the money?
Is it worth spending money on TV ads on say 6pm ABC news broadcast across the Philly area? Given you are sharing with all kinds of PA campaigns….
The money will be used to raise name recognition by any available means. None of their names is familiar to people who pay no attention to politics.
The key to raising name recognition is repetition, repetition, repetition. I should also mention repetition. That’s what the money buys.
Colleen Davis already holds statewide office and is therefore the most recognizable throughout the state.
McBride and Young are very well known in northern NCCo but Davis is the only candidate in this race with previous statewide exposure.
Besides the fact that she’s raised virtually nothing and that she has health issues which she has admirably shared with the public, you’re right–she’s a shoo-in.
Oh, and I’m gonna need some evidence that she’s the ‘most recognizable’ throughout the state.
Yes, a vast majority of Delawareans can offhand name the state treasurer. Sure they can.
Young is not very well known throughout NCCo. He’s well known in Wilmington, which is where he ran for office. Most people in the county don’t know or care anything about Wilmington’s politics.
McBride is best known because she gets national media attention, but I wouldn’t say she’s well-known.
Colleen Davis probably needs a name tag at family reunions.
Well, she is a middle child in an 8 kid family:). Seriously, Sarah has the money, the expertise and a solid organization. Eugene seems stuck in the starting blocks and Coleen has her personal issues along with the difficulty that having one’s political base in Sussex poses in terms of name recognition statewide.
Agree with Joe, Alby, et al. and the polling appears to back that up. I’d simply add that Colleen doesn’t even have a base in Sussex. I live part time in the Lewes area and I can say no one knows Colleen in eastern Sussex, but Sarah has a HUGE fan base in the area.
Yes, I think that she will be doing all sorts of advertising–social media and TV. At a level that the other challengers can’t afford.
That $$ advantage ensured LBR’s election when she first ran in a competitive D primary. She was the only one who could afford the ads.
I think that McBride’s Q4 fundraising being so strong while Eugene’s $$’s sagged is perhaps most instructive.
My dream scenario? Sarah names Eugene to a prominent role on her Senate staff, setting up Eugene to run against Chris Coons in 2026.
The other thing that money buys you in a campaign is the staff (real field organizers who can be full-time dedicated to volunteer recruitment, organizing, cutting turf, making packets, etc.) and, really importantly, research. If you have enough money you can do sophisticated message testing polling, focus groups, etc., so you can have the best ads, not just on television but strategically microtargeted on digital.
True.
Your dream scenario strikes me as the ultimate fantasy: Eugene jumps from a House staff job to Senate candidate? Whatever you’re smoking today hasn’t been legalized yet.
True, but it SHOULD be legalized…
$104,000 in the final quarter is not a particularly respectable showing in a congressional race, regardless of whether it’s against McBride or not. Looking at other competitive open seat candidates in other states, it’s pretty low. I believe it’s also less than what losing candidates against Lisa raised in 2016.
To run statewide, you need money. 104 is not particularly good no matter your opponent.
Your overall point is sound, but “looking at other competitive open seat candidates in other states” is a poor barometer for Delaware races. There is little to no TV advertising so a lot less money is needed.
Honestly, that makes Delaware more expensive. Most districts are half a million, but Delaware is a million. Most districts have media market, Delaware doesn’t – so you have to pay for out of state TV. Markell, Jennings, LBR… winning tv was critical to their wins.
The amounts spent by Delaware candidates don’t back that up. Congressional races in most of the East cost considerably more than ours.
What I find interesting is the amount of money LBR has raised to run unopposed.
Outside of races in the heart of expensive urban TV markets, it does cost more here. LBR spent 1.6 million, which, adjusted for inflation, is more than 2 million in today’s dollars. We can squabble over whether it is more or less expensive, but what is clear is that the ability to afford TV is necessary.
I don’t think you’ve established causality. As the other Anon noted, the money buys lots of other things as well. The ability to buy TV shows that there’s lots of money to spend, not that TV is the best way to spend it.
If you’ve got data that shows otherwise, I’m all ears.
I doubt there is accessible research on the role of TV in non-presidential state primaries, but I think it’s a pretty well established best practice that to win a primary outside the presidency (where voters are information rich through earned media), you need to be the candidate who gets in front of the voters the most and builds name recognition through paid media. How do you build name recognition and get a message out? Tv, digital, mail… all of which cost money. Primary voters skew older, which also means they are the people who are more likely to watch TV.
I know you’ll say correlation without causation, but there hasn’t be a winner of a primary in Delaware whose opponent went on TV and they didn’t. Or for that matter, even if multiple candidates went on TV, there hasn’t been a winning candidate who didn’t sizably outspend their opponent on TV.
Sure, if one candidate spends a million on TV and the other spends $850,000 on TV, the latter candidate can still win, but when there is a significant difference in money and one candidate’s paid media dwarfs the other candidate’s, the results are pretty predictable.
I don’t think there’s any evidence anywhere that TV gets the job done anymore.
As I said earlier, repetition is the key element in getting advertising to work, and Delaware politicians don’t have the money to do that on TV. It’s called broadcasting for a reason – you’re paying to reach a huge audience that mostly doesn’t care. There are much better ways of narrowcasting now.
For all the advertising they did on TV – and I don’t think it was all that much but I’m too lazy to look it up – I think I saw one LBR ad and none for the others you mention, all of which occurred when I was still in the country and still watched TV.
Sarah McBride is going to win that primary because she went into the race with better name recognition and has more money to cement that position. It doesn’t matter if she airs TV ads or not.
Can’t wait for the Open Secrets on where she gets her money.
Annd, here we go:
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/contributors?cycle=2024&id=DES1&spec=N
Like I said–Carper’s Rolodex.
It seemed that Ins. Commish Karen Weldin Stewart rode a big broadcast media buy for the win. There were complaints of hogging the market share and that’s money well spent (TV and Radio).
Some candidates have a knack for drumming up controversy to keep names in headlines for free e.g. Hartley Nagle sign stealing saga.
She already had name recognition advantage far greater than the two male opponents, whose combined vote just missed equaling her total. Doubt the TV ads were necessary.
I didn’t even realize KHN had stooped to copying Dana Long. She is, for me, a prime example of the Failure of Democracy.
From an email from Claire today:
“We need to make sure we have a pro-choice Democrat representing RD 14. Plus, as an elected official, I will be able to support the Common Cause agenda AND a range of other issues that are close to my heart.”
???
There’s this rumor that’s been whispered around that Marty is pro-life… while this hasn’t been addressed, I’m guessing she’s trying to create a wedge between them so she can distinguish herself.
It’s been addressed here. She’s not anti-abortion (“pro-life” is a full-of-shit self-labeling job).
For the record, a few of us raised this a bit ago on this site and we’re shouted down. Now, you have a candidate who is generally respected by this site saying the same thing.
So, either we know something the blog fathers don’t, or Claire is giving credence to wild rumors.
Shouted down? You’re still posting, aren’t you?
Fact: Marty Rendon came on here and said he’s pro-choice. So, either he’s lying, or he isn’t.
There. Fixed it for you.
I find Claire to be an honest and honorable person who cares deeply about people and the families of Delaware. She has established herself as a champion of “open” government, “transparency” in government and public access to legislators and their decision making process. She is a “real deal” progressive with the guts to challenge the status-quo establishment AKA “the Delaware Way”. I have just put a maximum donation check in the mail for her campaign.
Former Representative John Kowalko (retired but not “tired”)
Harrington concerns me as a lazy effort sweetener pairing for Bethany All Wrong.
Is Debbie really Lt. Governor material, or is she just orchestrated window dressing for a ticket tease?
The elections may be separate, but you know the marketing will be braided.
Don’t think so. After all, an easier pairing would have been Sherry Dorsey Walker, who has more support and who has run statewide before.
I thought Kyle Evans Gay was the likely winner of that race even before Harrington officially filed. Harrington’s filing only makes it more likely that Kyle will win.
Very impressive for Sarah. Curious as to how much of Sarah’s haul is designated for the general vs the primary. I suspect 100% of Eugene’s is for the primary and probably half of Sarah’s COH is for the general… making it somewhat closer of a primary haul.
That would be an odd way to apportion the money in a one-party state.
Alby, people can give more than the 3,300 primary maximum, but if they do, it gets siphoned to the general.
Bane, looking at the finance reports, it would appear that only a fairly small percentage of her individual donations are above the 3,300 primary max, so the overwhelming majority of her COH would be primary money. FWIW, I think I remember hearing that her average donation was actually lower than Young’s, which actually isn’t surprising since she probably already has a built up small dollar donor base.