You might remember the name Rachel Bitecofer. She’s the political scientist who got her 15 minutes in the spotlight when she nailed the blue wave House elections in 2018 – she predicted a 42-seat pickup for Democrats, double the consensus, and they flipped 41. She then called Trump’s loss a year out, before Biden was even the Democratic nominee, based on the theory of negative partisanship.
This theory argues that voters are increasingly motivated by dislike, hate, and fear of the other party, so each party’s success depends on shifts in voter turnout based on these negative feelings. The “turnout swing” comes not from voters deciding between candidates but whether to vote at all.
Since leaving academia Bitecofer has become a strategist for hire, and she just published a book, “Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts,” preaching her gospel. This Salon interview gives a good gloss on the book and lays out the strategy she thinks Democrats should follow: Hammer away at the negative impact of Republican governance. Abortion is the prime example – she notes that the end of Roe has swung almost every election since by 8 points – but that’s only part of it.
We have to get people talking about fascism. And this idea that we shouldn’t use the word “fascism” because people don’t know what fascism is? Well, no one knows what socialism is. But when we poll people and ask them, what’s the first word that pops into your mind when you hear the word “Democrat,” guess what the plurality response is? “Socialist”! It’s not a liability when people don’t know what it is — it’s an asset, because then they define whatever the scary thing is into a customized fear category.
The whole interview is well worth the 10 minutes it takes to read. If that’s too long, here’s her closing quote:
Our electioneering foundation has been built on a flawed assumption. The American people are plenty smart when it comes to IQ. That doesn’t mean they’re civically smart. The reason is disinterest. People don’t follow politics because they don’t care, and I show [it] in survey data: Not only do they not care, they’re kind of proud about not caring. We have to meet the clay, the rough clay, where it is. If we’re dealing with an electorate that knows nothing, then we have to make sure it at least learns one thing: The modern Republican Party is a fascist cult that’s coming to steal your health, your wealth, your freedom and your safety.