El Somnambulo Picks Some Of ‘Em For You
Wasn’t gonna do this. But, I can’t help myself.
US Representative: Sarah McBride (D) and Donyale Hall (R). Assuming, of course, that anybody turns out to vote in the Republican Primary.
Governor: Matt Meyer (D) wins, doesn’t quite get to 50%. Let’s say 46%, BHL 32%, O’Mara 22%. Can’t wait for the Delaware Way implosion that will follow. Mike Ramone (R) overwhelmingly wins the primary over two names on the ballot.
Lieutenant Governor: Kyle Evans Gay wins comfortably. I think she gets to 50%.
Insurance Commissioner: Navarro wins. I’m casting a protest vote for Kayode Abegunde because Navarro deserves a serious challenger. Sadly, Abegunde isn’t that challenger.
Senate District 18: Mealy-mush-mouthed Dave Wilson wins against Bob Reed in R primary.
Rep. District 2:. Buccini/Pollin fave Stephanie Bolden (D) easily turns back James Taylor.
Rep. District 3: Branden Fletcher Dominguez (D) has the ground game to turn back Josue Ortega, who has more of the Delaware Way $$’s backing him. Say, 62-38.
Rep. District 10: Melanie Ross Levin (D) handily defeats Dennis ‘I run for office, therefore I am’ Williams and The Chiropractor Jankovic. Think she’ll get around 65%.
Rep. District 14: Speaker Pete has retired. He’s been trying to (give the) rub (to) Kathy McGuiness, just as he did when he backed her for reelection as State Auditor. The 14th RD rejected both of them then, and I think they’ll reject them again. I think Claire Snyder-Hall will win, and I think she should win. While I like Marty Rendon, I believe we need someone who will strongly challenge the hegemony of the Delaware Way. That’s Claire. I won’t even hazard a guess on percentages.
Rep. District 15: Maybe I’m missing something. I’ve campaigned in that district for Kamela Smith something like 12 times, maybe more. Knocked on hundreds of doors. I’ve been surprised by the lack of support for Our PAL Val Longhurst, the incumbent, and the Speaker Of The House. No real district strongholds for Longhurst. Most people have never met her. Support for Kam has grown stronger with every pass through the district. I’ve knocked doors on quite a few insurgent campaigns: Bryan Townsend over Tony DeLuca, and Marie Pinkney over Dave McBride, to name but two. This has the same feel, even down to the parade of surrogates trying to drag Val’s carcass across the finish line. Some understandable, some not. Yes, Val had a shitload of money. So, too, did Tony DeLuca. Betcha people are getting two or three mailers a day from Val. Didn’t work for Tony, I honestly don’t think it will work for Val. Why? Great grassroots campaign by Kam and her team. Upset Special: Kam defeats Longhurst, 53-47.
Rep. District 20: Stell Parker Selby easily turns back the challenge of one Brian Jenkins in this Suxco district. I checked, couldn’t find a single solitary fact on Jenkins.
Rep. District 21: I think Frank Burns turns back the challenge of The Other Michael Smith in the D primary to replace the departing Mike Ramone. It hasn’t been easy to even fill in the blanks of Smith’s candidacy, which is probably to his advantage. I’m guessing something like 55-45.
Rep. District 27: I like Eric Morrison to turn back the heavily-financed (by all the wrong people) challenge of Margie Lopez Waite. This may be the only primary this year where the traditional D constituencies have joined forces to ward off Eee-vil. Not to mention, Eric’s progressive bona fides also help in this district. It’s way premature, but if some of the races turn out the way I think they might, Eric would be a great choice for House Majority Leader. Just sayin’. I’m going 60-40.
Rep. District 29: Sometimes, life intervenes. I believe that Monica Shockley Porter can defeat Bill Bush. However, due to circumstances beyond her control, she’s had to dial back on some of her campaign activities. So, I think Bush wins in this northern Kent County district. But in two years, watch out. 54-46.
Rep. District 34: Pretty sure Tracey Miller wins over perennial candidate Ade Kuforiji. The margin will be interesting in this Kent County district as we begin to see how competitive Miller might be in November against incumbent R Lyndon Yearick.
Rep. District 36: Bryan Shupe (R) sweeps away the challenge of Patrick Smith in this northern Suxco district.
New Castle County Executive: Marcus Henry rolls over the challenge from the terminally-incompetent Karen Hartley-Nagle. Following the one-sided loss, KHN looks to sue somebody/anybody. Doesn’t look in the mirror.
New Castle County Council President. It would take someone with the mind of a 3-D chess master to accurately predict the order of finish in this race. If you’d like to do it, and if you are 100% accurate, you win a free yearly subscription to Delaware Liberal. I’m picking Monique Johns to win, largely because (a) she’s run before, and (b) she’s the only Black candidate in the race. Never mind that not a thought about county government has ever crossed her furrowed brow. I’m picking Bob Williams to finish last. On merit. But honestly (said Captain Obvious), I have no clue.
New Castle County Council. George Smiley retains over the joke candidacy of Michael Brown in CD 7, and Kevin Caneco wins over George Dudlek in a closer contest in CD 12.
Wilmington Mayor: Here’s what I think I know–Matt Meyer is gonna beat BHL in Wilmington by at least 10 points. John Carney has basically curtailed his own campaign for Mayor to carry his criminal co-pilot across the finish line. Seeing that, I would think that Velda Jones-Potter would win. But then I think that Carney must have some polling that shows him well ahead because, otherwise, he’d be spending all his time on his own campaign. But then I remember that Carney has never ran a substantive campaign for anything. So, I think that Velda Jones-Potter wins this race, maybe 52-48. Let it be said, though, that I have absolutely no confidence in this prediction.
I have only one prediction in the Wilmington City Council races: Shane Darby wins reelection. I’m also rooting for Christian Willauer. The rest? I’m counting on you guys.
Finally, last, and arguably least, look for Susanne Whitney to defeat Delaware’s Laziest Candidate, Colin Bonini, for the R nomination for Kent County Register of Wills.
Here’s where you come in. What do you know? What do you think? What do you think you know? What do you think I don’t know? What are your predictions?
I would be legitimately shocked if Kyle doesn’t get huge, huge numbers. I’ve received multiple mailers from her and I think only one between the other two candidates.
She was also extremely pro-active about reaching out to my RDs and others in KC as early as last year.
Governor:
Meyer – 44, Hall Long 34, Omara, 22
Meyer wins City of WIlmington, New Castle and probably Sussex County.
Wilmington Mayor – Carney wins 53 to 47; very uninspiring campaign but not just by him.
NCC President –
Monique Johns wins, George Frankel comes in 2nd.
Wilmington City Council:
1st District – Lopez
2nd – Darby
3rd – Oliver
5th – Fields
7th – ??
At Large – Bracy, Cabrera, Hacket, Spadola
Going out on the limb for County Council president, but only because I want that free subscription.
Hoover, 26 percent, because I want him to win.
Johns, 22 percent, for all the reasons mentioned above.
Gould, 19 percent, because some DL folks like her.
Frankel, 18 percent, because he’s got nice green signs.
Williams, 15 percent, because … well, he’s got the ex-cop vote locked up.
This is a really scary race because none of the candidates have either great leadership experience or broad involvement with county government. My hope is for Hoover since he has the support of the three-person environmentalist/preservationist bloc on council (Durham, Cartier, Carter), which will likely be joined by Caneco.
Hey, that’s the way some people pick horse races.
Sometimes their ticket comes in.
FWIW I get online ads for Hoover, haven’t seen anything but roadside signs for any of the others.
I think I got one mailer apiece from Hoover, Frankel and Gould. With his own web business, Hoover has more online savvy than the other four combined.
I agree with you on Meyer, Gay, Navarro and Marcus Henry. I think Pete will pull McGinnes over the finish line. Carney mostly over Potter but it will be close. And since I too would like a shot at the free subscription for NCCC President:
1) Frankel, he has some momentum and has done his homework on all the issues
2)Hoover, he has raised the most money and the 3 endorsements
3)Johns, who doesn’t have a clue except identity politics 3 time loser
4)Val Gould who has worked hard but they can’t pull it off
5)Williams he is a loser who walked out on his city council job and his first wife and kids
EVERYBODY wants that free subscription!
Can’t blame you, the writing is first-rate.
My comments have carried this virtual fish wrapper the way that Llovable Lloyd Teitsworth kept the Evening Journal in black ink.
It will be interesting to see if the Working Families Party endorsement helps Gould.
Doubt it. Because where WFP has the most impact is in their grassroots involvement. Don’t think there was much, if any, in that race.
Look to the legislative races–Kam vs. Val, Frank Burns vs. the Other Mike Smith, Eric Morrison vs. The Charter School Lady, and Monica Shockley Porter vs. Bill Bush.
Also Monica Beard vs. the Real Mike Smith in November.
Chalk the Collin endorsement up to ‘live and (hopefully) learn’.
Sorry, Frankel thinks the County “should grow lavender in its parks” to raise money and has no clue about County issues and purview.
Williams thinks the Council President’s job is to “make everyone play nice.” Doesn’t seem to know he is just 1 vote of 13. Period.
Gould’s priorities indicate she should have run for a seat in Dover, not NCC.
Monique means well, but just wants a job.
Hoover is the only one who CARES about land use, really the biggest purview County Council has.
^^^^ This.
Val promises to “leverage her privilege” to achieve results.
I’m uncertain how to rephrase that in plain English, so can someone please distinguish what it might mean from how it strikes me. Because “I can be more effective because I’m white” surely can’t be a selling point.
Incidentally, can someone check the opioid fund feeders for a certain Ottoman champion of BHL on social media with the weird AI graphics?
I guess being on the council would be in a place of privilege vs. as an activist on the outside?
Is she an activist of some kind currently?
Or does she check her privilege unless elected to leverage it?
Val is currently working with EJ communities in the Rt 9 corridor on community benefit agreements, and other concerns regarding the impacts of living in close proximity to heavy industry uses.
I do want to point out that their platform is completely in line with what NCC 2050 has as its main components of action. Land use is far more than open space preservation. As someone who has been heavily involved in land use since 2009, and was on the stakeholder advisory council for NCC2050, I think Val has a far greater understanding of not only land use, but community services and public works- and where the strategic plan can cause the most direct benefit for communities.
Here’s a link to the NCC2050 Plan: https://www.newcastlede.gov/350/Comprehensive-Plan
And language that reflects what the County aims to achieve:
Planned Growth – direct development to
planned growth areas with infrastructure
and limit it outside of these areas, promoting
preservation.
Environmental Justice – reduce the
risk and impact from environmental and
health hazards on historically overburdened
communities.
Land Preservation – preserve a minimum
of 7,100 acres of land for open space in the
county and improve the lands’ ecosystem
health (including increasing farmland &
historic preservation).
Sustainability & Climate Change – lead
in addressing climate change with a path for
New Castle County government to reach net
zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,
prepare the built environment for a clean
energy future, and become more resilient to
environmental and health risks by greening
and related efforts.
Economic Development – develop
policies and programs to create an economic
environment that supports a range of
industries and businesses while leveraging
equitable and robust outcomes that limit
negative effects.
Economic Justice – as economic growth
occurs, strive for equitable distribution of
benefits.
Implementation – ensure government
is oriented to implement the plan in a
comprehensive and coordinated fashion,
including systematic data collection, tracking,
reporting, and evaluation. Ensure growth and
change in our communities is coordinated
across agencies; that infrastructure and
services are timed with new growth; and that
decision-making leverages the full range of
available data and technology.
Housing – increase the variety and range
of safe, quality housing options for all, in a
diversity of locations; focus on revitalizing
and preserving areas already developed,
while responsibly guiding future development
in a manner consistent with adjacent
communities.
Targeted Strategies – implement
corridor, water, and other target-area-based
revitalization programs that emphasize
integration and accessibility of green
infrastructure.
Diversity – increase diversity of engagement
in community planning activities and on
professional staff.
Use the Plan Guiding Growth, Including
Rezonings – update the practice for
rezonings and Future Land Use Map (FLUM)
changes. Zoning (and rezonings) must
conform to the FLUM, achieving the right
balance between predictability and flexibility.
The Comprehensive Plan should be the
basis for land use decisions and changes
to the Future Land Use Map should be the
product of a public planning process, such
as a community plan, or done at the 5-year
evaluation of the Comprehensive Plan.
Sounds nice, but just because they understand the NCC goals for 2050 doesn’t mean they have a viable plan to get it done. I also hear people saying Val frequently says they’re not from around here, and doesn’t plan on staying here. They personally told me they wanna move to Maine the first chance they get. Doesn’t sound like they’ll be all that interested in NCC in 2050.
Lavender idea is to intended to raise $2million per year for the parks. The only candidate to come up with an idea to raise money without raising taxes.
If you watch the video he wants to fix the combined sewage overflow issue; introduce the use of texting to inform the public of rezoning issues; allow citizens to share doorbell video and security video with NCCPD (similar to what WPD does); put tutors in the libraries to help with reading afterschool;
wants to better compensate our EMTs
The lavender idea might raise $2 million in revenue, but it doesn’t factor in the costs involved. You’d either be adding county employees, or pissing off the employee unions if you didn’t. Even if you cleared $2 million in profit, it’s an absurdly small amount of the county’s budget.
Fixing the combined sewage overflow issue would have cost a quarter-billion dollars 20 years ago. The price would probably be triple that today. Better EMT/firefighter pay will cost money, too. Lavender ain’t gonna cut it.
Also, the county is not in the business of farming. In order to do this legally, I believe you’d need to get a contractor involved. I don’t think this idea has been thought through well at all.
He’ll have plenty of time to grow lavender in Karen H-N’s edible garden. They can send it up to Val Gould in Maine to mix into handcrafted artisanal cruelty-free herbes de Provence packaged in sustainably-sourced recycled gluten free rice paper made by a commune of historically underserved vegans.
I think you underestimate the difficulty of lavender farming or overestimate KHN’s practical skills. Or maybe both.
Ruthie and Al Catraz, I said I’d like to RETIRE to Maine. That’s in about 25-30 years. I have no intention of leaving Delaware anytime soon. If I did, I wouldn’t be running for office.
And it’s true, I’m not a Delaware native. Neither are an increasing percentage of people moving to our state. I have a pretty unique perspective having lived in other places, and I am the only one in my race who can say that.
Also, please visit my website to see how I plan to achieve some of my goals. It’s under the “Policy” section. Definitely viable!
If you have any other feedback, please message me through my website and I’d be happy to chat with you more!
Don’t be so sure on the Shupe race. Some big builder money has been poured into his primary opponent and it’s pretty competitive now.
However it pans out, we all should be supporting Rony. A stellar candidate and former school board member.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/4miSrKfu2Y66MUFk/
take a look at this interview that George Frankel did with trolly trends 40 minutes but it covers NCC issues
I saw his site and the Coons connection was enough to put me off.
Yep. Looks like the developers’ best friend to me.
Thank you for saving me some time.
I try to avoid anyone too cozy with Chris Coons or Jesus, which knocks two off the list for me.
At the LWV forum he outright said he would take money from developers if it was offered because “it’s hard to run a campaign on $12,000.” Not a fan of that answer.
I do have to say that Mike Smith is doing yeoman’s work for any burglars checking out RD 21. You can get a pretty fine grained view of who is on vacation from week to week, since he doesn’t miss a door.
If you see an Amazon package on a porch with a Smith flyer in the door handle, you’re good to go.
Okay you got me with the free subscription. Here’s my pick:
1. Jason Hoover – good track record, good endorsements, nice guy, super smart, plus I think he’s putting that stellar fundraising to good use. I see his stuff everywhere and people have been talking about him out of the blue. He’s got a nice message but it’s also resonating with a ton of folks out here.
2. Val Gould – Definitely makes a good impression in forums. I see them around, connecting with folks. They have some nice endorsements too — I hope it works for them. Next to Hoover, I think they’re causing the best buzz.
3. Monique Johns – At best, she’s a protest vote in all of her other elections. As you mentioned, can’t talk the issues to save her life. Plus I think the idea that she’s going to get “the entire black vote” just doesn’t make sense to me. I’m putting her 3rd for name recognition alone, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.
4. George Frankel – Sweet guy, great stage presence, not a viable candidate. Unfortunately I think he needs to work on his messaging. Too much swagger, not enough policy. Plus that lavender thing…
5. Bob Williams – Can’t get off his war stories of being a cop to actually connect with people. Who are you inspiring with “experience matters”? He’s got the union vote locked up but that’s not gonna do it. He hasn’t done a lick beyond that and it’s showing.
Also, I just got Brandon Fletcher Dominguez’s email that he’s dropping out, and I am STUNNED!
With all due respect to Branden who I campaigned for, he owes us an explanation.
Did he not live in the district all this time?
The governor’s race is pretty high-profile, so my guess is Dem turnout will be higher, including folks who might not be tuned in to all the races. Who votes the most? Older voters, higher levels of educational achievement, home owners.
1. My guess is Monique Johns has more name ID in places like Middletown, which have more 55+ communities. I don’t think much canvassing has happened below the canal in general, but she lives there.
2. Jason Hoover. He’s done the best with fundraising, and heh has the best digital presence, but I worry about Gould and Hoover overlapping in terms of voters.
3. Frankel. He has the best sign game, and I’ve seen him at events. He might do well with lower-info voters, if Johns doesn’t take them.
4. Gould. They do have the progressive vote, at lest the one that doesn’t pay attention to county issues. The A question is, will enough progressives turn out? And there’s the potential issue of overlapping with Hoover.
5. Williams. I just don’t see much about him.