I’m Calling It: Harris Will Win
Not only that–she’ll have coattails that will flip the House and quite possibly at least lead to a 50-50 Senate.
Yes, I think the polls are wrong. I think that they have failed to account for what I see as being an overwhelming female vote that will result in something like a blue wave.
I see it in the early voting results. Yes, a lot of the early voters are Republican women. I see that as good. They’re not rushing out to vote out of any sense of enthusiasm for Trump. I think they’re determined to protect their rights as women.
Pundits nitpick every aspect of Kamala’s campaign. However, none of the mistakes the campaign might have made reach the level of Trump’s refusal to even reach out to Nikki Haley and her supporters:
Former presidential candidate and onetime U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley criticized Trump world on Tuesday for being “overly masculine with this bromance thing” after former President Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
“This is not a time to have anyone criticize Puerto Rico or Latinos,” Haley said, instead calling for discipline around the campaign. “This is not a time for them to get overly masculine with this bromance thing that they have.”
Haley noted other language used throughout the rally, as well as in Republican ads and messaging, that she called destructive to drawing women into the fold on Election Day. Polls show a major gender gap playing out with this election, with women turning to Vice President Kamala Harris in greater numbers and Trump winning among men.
“This bromance and masculinity stuff, it borders on edgy to the point that it’s going to make women uncomfortable,” Haley said.
‘Borders on’? Trump’s campaign has been directly aimed at the bros and the MAGAts. I think it has done him far more damage than good, and it’s driving the early turnout. I think, without all that much evidence, that Republican women are disproportionately voting for Harris. I know that Harris’ GOTV operation is far superior to whatever it is that Musk is funding to try to counter it.
Bottom line: This is a turnout election. There are more of us than there are of them. Yes, even in the swing states. Plus, the Harris campaign has momentum on their side, especially with the contrasting ‘closing arguments’ event.
I’ve been wrong before (see any of my prediction threads or, better yet, don’t). But I think she wins, and wins far more handily than the polls suggest.
I support Harris but am pessimistic. I think there far too many He-Man-Woman-Haters and closet racists in the country to support a black woman for president. Hope I’m proven wrong.
I feel that. Idk which way this will go. More HeManWomenHaters or more women (and men) who will vote to support women?
Believe ‘Bulo is right, the Republicans, the corporate media and the pollsters all got it wrong in 2020, believe they will repeat that faiolure again. Also believe women will play a dominant role in 2024 just as they did in 2020, and it will not end there. But neither will the rise of American Fascism.
Your logic is compelling, but logic does not always win. I have election PTSD from 2016. I haven’t spent any time outside of Delaware recently so I don’t know what the feeling is.
I am notoriously anxious, and I was one of the few people in my circle that really believed that Trump had a good chance of winning in 2016, but I am fairly serene this time around.
Everything I’ve seen points to a relatively close election (EV-wise), and Harris has the edge in pretty much every way.
Trump *can* win, but I’m about as sure as one can be that he’s the underdog. For Harris to lose, A LOT has to go wrong.
I’m much more worried about the inevitable violence that will happen after election day.
I am still bewildered its this close of an election and yes it will be close which will mean without a true incumbent in the white house i feel we wont have a president named by January and at that point the supreme court may get invoved and we know how that will go
My wife and I continue to and frequently encounter women speaking derisively about the Vice President. They repeat lies regarding the current state of the economy, immigration, crime statistics and domestic energy production.
They always ask us if we are better off today than we were 4 years ago? My answer is always other than being closer to death I would have to say yes.
Where do these morons live? I’d like to avoid them.
Most of them work at my office.
Set the clocks back a week on Sunday.
If Trump wins, we are indeed better off being closer to death.
Word.
I appreciate El Som’s confidence. I am worried about any underlying meanings why 3 or 4 Senate candidates are distancing themselves from Harris/Walz. ( Pa MI OH and Wis) Do they know something we don’t??????
I wonder if the ads they’re talking about are running statewide or just in Republican areas. If it’s the latter it’s outreach; if the former, bet-hedging.
I don’t think they are, except possibly Sherrod Brown, who is running in a Republican state. I know Casey and Slotkin have appeared with Harris and Walz.
I could be really wrong, but the early voting numbers, when you look who at who has voted (disproportionately more R women), and you look at how they say they voted (strongly for Harris), I see what I think the polls have missed.
Trump will likely win by a slim majority. Harris still has not communicated a clear vision for the next four years, beyond “lower taxes” and 25k down payment assistance. She is just another empty vessel for the neoliberals and Zionists to fill with their economic and foreign policies. Not to mention that she would probably have been a distant third place in an open dem primary.
None of those are facts. Just sayin’.
Not to mention, who gives a fuck about “a clear vision for the next four years”? Who’s naive enough to think someone’s vision has anything to do with governing this mess of a country?
Bless your heart.
No Republican president has won a majority since 2004, and Trump will not break that streak.