Crunch time prediction thread – Statewides
US SENATE
CARPER, THOMAS – D?
HARRIS, KERRI EVELYN – D
ARLETT, ROBERT – R
DE LA FUENTE, ROCKY – R
TRUONO, EUGENE – R
US REP
MURPHY, LEE – R
WALKER, SCOTT – R
ATTORNEY GENERAL
JOHNSON, CHRISTOFER – D
JENNINGS, KATHLEEN – D
MULLANEY, TIMOTHY P – D
ROBERTS, LAKRESHA – D
AUDITOR OF ACCTS
DAVIES, KATHLEEN ANN – D
MCGUINESS, KATHLEEN K – D?
WILLIAMS, DENNIS E – D
I’ve been saying that the Dem Primary is the election, and this year it is more true than ever.
If the woman’s march/special election/Trump revulsion energy is still flowing in the veins of the electorate it could be a long night for the Dem Party Machine Candidates – Carper, Jennings, & McGuiness. If Delaware is as politically asleep as Tom Carper thinks it is, then reform candidates – Harris, Johnson, and Davies may fall short.
But what about the ballot qualified candidates that have been quiet? Will Roberts or Williams be the sand in someone’s gearbox? Who knows.
Anything can happen in a primary election, and most predictions, including my own, are wishful thinking. That said:
US SENATE
CARPER, THOMAS – 49%
HARRIS, KERRI EVELYN – 51%
ATTORNEY GENERAL
JOHNSON, CHRISTOFER – 47%
JENNINGS, KATHLEEN – 44%
MULLANEY, TIMOTHY P – 2%
ROBERTS, LAKRESHA – 7%
AUDITOR OF ACCTS
DAVIES, KATHLEEN ANN – 51%
MCGUINESS, KATHLEEN K – 45%
WILLIAMS, DENNIS E – 4%
Is the consensus that an anti McGuiness vote should be cast for Davies and not Williams?
I didn’t even know Williams was still in it prior to making this list up from the dept of elections web site.
So…yes.
I was going to vote for Williams. Is he some weird fringe candidate or something?
I have to confess I don’t understand the “Kathleen Davies as a reform candidate” theme.
She was in that office for six years and ran it for 2+. I think we can all agree that the Auditor of Accounts Office has been performing poorly for quite a while. On the one side, Kathy Jennings is part of the system and therefore part of the problem, on the other side Kathleen Davies is the “reform candidate”.
Anti-McGuiness, I get it, but reform is a reach.
Jennings is not running for auditor
For me sticking it to Pete is a vital reform that needs to happen, but I get your point.
Just printed out the sample ballot for my Middletown location. Didn’t realize we still had a sheriff, thought that was a good ol’ boy thing on slower Delaware. Anyone have insights into this race? Phillips looks to be more of a progressive??
Help!
Kathleen Davies uncovered waste, fraud, and abuse in the public schools, and the perps were prosecuted. Both parties can get behind that.
Jim C – who do you like in the 9th?
I got sample ballot for me:
Election Districts
Election District 06
Representative District 08
Senate District 10
County Council/Levy Court 06
City of Wilmington 00
City District
School District AP
Sorry I don’t even know where the 9th is…
The whole reason Davies got fired, at least according to her own account, is that she delved to deep into accounts that Wagner and the political powers that be wanted left alone. If that’s the case, then she is someone who, given the right amount of power, would be willing to take on the corruption at that undergirds the Delaware Way. Even if she’s not telling the truth, it’d still be a thumb in the eye of the establishment. Either way, she has my vote.
@Andrew, anything that Kathy Mcguinness can accused of regarding being ambitious beyond her morals or her capacity can be laid in equal measure at Dennis Williams’ feet. Plus he’s buffonishly obnoxious and a bully, whereas at least Kathy can muster the capacity to be generally a nice person personally. If there’s one person that does not deserve your vote, it is Dennis Williams.
Jason, my unsolicited opinion on the 9th is Debbie Harrington is the candidate to beat. I think she has the right story, the right message, and the right work ethic to get it all out there.
As far as her opponents, I haven’t heard much about Jim Ryan canvassing at all. I see he’s getting some endorsements from some of the politicos who are union members on social media, but not much else. Not sure what Monique Johns is doing. I saw that she just got PDD’s endorsement.
Josh W:. You realize this is not the same Dennis Williams who was the mayor of Wilmington right?
I fucking hate this shit. Prognosticating. I’ll second Jason, because that’s the outcome I prefer.
guarantee those estimates will not be nearly this kind to progressives if people don’t get out and volunteer in the final days
REV is right – instead, put your money where your mouth is
contribute, knock, call, drag your friends and family
For the Senate race I think it is too close to call.
For AG I actually think that LaKresha is the most sincere candidate. Jennings is too establishment. I agree with a lot of Chris Johnsons positions but I think he changes his position depending on his audience. I’m not sure why Mullaney is running in the Democratic primary. I think Jennings will win, but she spent a ridiculous amount of money for Philadelphia TV ads to reach a fraction of a fraction of the audience who may show up to vote in a primary.
I may be biased in the Auditor race since I am an accountant. I think and hope that McGuiness will come in a distant third so we won’t have to see her ever again. She has no experience at all in the field and would do whatever Pete Schwartzkopf tells her to do.
I do not trust Davies at all. She was fired for, among many other things, violating auditing standards. I have heard her excuses and I don’t buy it. She has an agenda opposing charter schools and that seems to be enough for Kim Williams and Kowalko to look the other way on all her other shortcomings. I really don’t know why everyone is so against D Williams but if you look at this objectively he seems to be the most qualified. He has his BS in Accounting and has a Master’s from Wharton. McGuiness has a Bio degree and Davies only has a Bachelor’s.
On the political side I really don’t get how the progressives can support Davies over Williams. McGuiness is a Republican, but Williams has an actual record and just got an endorsement from Karen Peterson.
Can someone explain to me, seriously, how Davies is more progressive than Williams.
Jim C. re: sheriff
Thompson for Sheriff. Always.
Battle of Aspen. Freak power in the Rockies!
Accept no substitute
Davies is a CPA, no? With a record of sticking it to the people needing stuck. So much so they tried to smear her.
They’re afraid of her. Ergo, vote Davies.
All I can tell you Matt, is that’s good enough for me.
Predictions:
US SENATE
CARPER, THOMAS – 48%
HARRIS, KERRI EVELYN – 52%
This is a hope.
ARLETT, ROBERT – 54%
DE LA FUENTE, ROCKY – 1%
TRUONO, EUGENE – 45%
The gay Republican stands no chance against the Trumpite from Sussex.
US REP
MURPHY, LEE – 75%
WALKER, SCOTT – 25%
This is a hope.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
JOHNSON, CHRISTOFER – 40%
JENNINGS, KATHLEEN – 30%
MULLANEY, TIMOTHY P – 15%
ROBERTS, LAKRESHA – 15%
Again, a hope, but based on the energy I’ve seen. Jennings has been running like Mike Castle in 2010. Mullaney is a joke. Roberts is running to be chief deputy or chief of staff to the winner.
AUDITOR OF ACCTS
DAVIES, KATHLEEN ANN – 41%
MCGUINESS, KATHLEEN K – 36%
WILLIAMS, DENNIS E – 23%
Williams’ campaign is a joke, but he’ll still pull in votes from being the only man on the ballot.
“Can someone explain to me, seriously, how Davies is more progressive than Williams.”
Can someone explain to me, seriously, how Williams is real a candidate? It is a little late in the day for Williams to start campaigning. If you honestly don’t want Park City – vote for Davies.
Also – I agree with REV and fwiw.
“The gay Republican stands no chance against the Trumpite from Sussex.”
Most DE Republicans live north of the canal.
Yes, but will they vote? Won’t it interfere with cocktail hour?
“Can someone explain to me, seriously, how Davies is more progressive than Williams.”
I don’t want a “progressive” auditor. I want a professional, non-partisan one. Just because the Republicans put a political tool in the job doesn’t mean Democrats should. I want an auditor with no agenda beyond exposing fraud and waste, and I want her to be energetic about it. If that means ashcanning the office smurfs who wasted $100,000 because she was mean to them, so much the better.
Jason, it’s not about numbers. It’s about who’s motivated to vote. COD taught us that.
Alby,
I’m not saying we should have a “progressive” auditor. We should have someone who is independent. I think Davies is as bad as McGuiness. McGuiness has Pete and Val and will do what they tell her to do. Davies already leaked info to Kim Williams already to promote a political agenda. And just because Davies is saying the report was politically motivated to ‘get her’ doesn’t make her claim true. You might not be a fan of the News Journal, but the State News reported on the same story, with more research and interviews and lead to the same conclusion. Davies violated the rules and was a horrible manager.
I saw Kowalko’s comment about the State News story. He has consistently praised State News reported Matt Bittle for being a great investigative reporter. But as soon as Bittle writes a story that Kowalko disagrees with, suddenly Bittle is no longer a good reporter?
I’ll just say I hope Johnson wins for AG and Harris for Senate. I think Davies will win for Auditor. I’m not with most of you on some of the races but keeping my own counsel on those.
Matt, Johnson says the same thing to every audience, and it is on the front of his campaign lit. “I will seek justice for those our justice system leaves behind.”
I smell troll. But, to be fair, if you’d like to cite examples of Chris changing his positions based on the audience, I’m all ears. Or eyes. Ball’s in your court.
I’m not saying I don’t like Johnson. Maybe it is just his presentation vs LaKresha. She just seems more sincere. I will be voting for one of them but I am leaning towards LaKresha right now.
“Tell me please how Davies is more progressive than Williams.”
“I’m not saying we should have a progressive auditor.”
Who are you really, Trump?
“Davies already leaked info to Kim Williams already to promote a political agenda.”
Right from the News Journal:
Wagner’s termination letter said Davies had erred in disclosing the unit count audit to Williams. But the Department of Labor determined Davies had the authority to do so, and that sending the audit to Williams did not amount to misconduct.
Take your Dennis Williams bullshit elsewhere.
Dennis Williams is a nasty little shit and very few people don’t know it. And don’t presume to tell me how to read a newspaper story.
As for Karen Peterson, nice try, but KP wasn’t the most progressive legislator on the block. She could be a labor union flunky with the best of them when she had to be.
I know when people are misrepresenting themselves, and I strongly suspect it of you.
Matt,
From the beginning of this campaign Chris has said the same thing in every room and at every door even if it wasn’t popular. I have been there to watch him defend his gun stance and tell very wealthy people our criminal justice system is broken. He is the real deal beyond a doubt. The other two women came his way through out this primary and their stances changed go to the very first debate and you will see that.
Kathleen obtained her Certified Public Accountant early in her career and went on to obtain credentials as a Certified Information Systems Auditor, Certified Government Financial Manager, Certified Government Audit Professional, and a Certified Fraud Examiner. She’s done state auditing for twenty-five years in three different states and has also served on national committees and work groups, and for the past 17 years, she has been training audit staff nationally. And she was second in command for six years here in the Delaware office of the auditor of accounts.
The idea that Dennis is somehow more qualified, despite never having spent a solitary moment doing any actual auditing, is absurd on it’s face.
Predictions:
US SENATE
CARPER, THOMAS – 49.5%
HARRIS, KERRI EVELYN – 50.5%
This is a hope.
ARLETT, ROBERT – don’t care
DE LA FUENTE, ROCKY – don’t care
TRUONO, EUGENE – don’t care
The gay Republican stands no chance against the Trumpite from Sussex.
US REP
MURPHY, LEE – 75%
WALKER, SCOTT – 25%
This is a hope.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
JOHNSON, CHRISTOFER – 32
JENNINGS, KATHLEEN – 30%
MULLANEY, TIMOTHY P – 13%
ROBERTS, LAKRESHA – 25%
As for LaKresha being sincere, I’m at a loss here. I still have yet to figure out what her real position on the death penalty is, or what she’ll do if the legislature tries to reimpose it. She’s always come off as wishy-washy to me. I just don’t see her standing up to the internal culture of the DOJ.
I am curious though Matt, can you give me an example when Chris Johnson has changed his position to fit an audience? I’ve been following his campaign pretty closely and he’s been pretty rock solid with his positions since the beginning from my view.
Jason… for the 9th Monique Johns is the one to beat. She is everywhere pounding the pavement.
Debbie Harrington has been a dud of a candidate and Outside of securing union support and money Jim Ryan hasn’t done enough to come close to winning.
Johns – 61%
Ryan – 33%
Harrington – 6%
Was the creation of the Grant Thornton report done for political purposes by Wagner – I think it probably was.
Was the leaking of that report to the News Journal a dirty political trick – it absolutely was and I hope they get to the bottom of who did it.
But just because all the dunces are in a confederacy against Davies doesn’t mean she’s a genius. I just don’t think there is a good choice in this race.
As of this morning, the “sample ballot” feature of the DE elections website is down:
https://registertovote.elections.delaware.gov/voterlogin.aspx
There’s an error message in the CAPTCHA box “ERROR for site owner:
Invalid domain for site key,” meaning probably that the CAPTCHA add-on has suddenly become misconfigured (I know it was working last week).
I would whole-heartedly believe an explanation of incompetence over dirty tricks.
But nobody can get a sample ballot, the week of the primary with many progressive challengers to the DE establishment.
Tony Dem: I look for Johns to finish third out of three.
But I’ve been wrong before.
Looking at the money and lack of endorsements I can see that thought but living down here and seeing how she has dramatically outworked her opponents has me thinking otherwise.
At a minimum – a comfortable 15 points ahead of the next one.
Just a little report from the 7th RD, the seat that Bryon Short has held.
Of the 5 D’s who have filed, only three have actively campaigned (well, only two, we’ll get to that in a minute). Neither first-time D Rose Izzo nor Claymont business person Catherine Imburgia are serious candidates.
When the field was first set, I figured that Joe Daigle was the odds-on favorite. He had run last time until Bryon Short dropped out of the congressional race and big-timed the announced candidates. However, to my amazement, Daigle has hardly run a campaign at all. He is now almost certainly fated to finish third. On merit.
Leaving us Ray Seigfried from Arden and Larry Lambert from Claymont. Larry’s politics are far more progressive, and I’ll be voting for him. However, Ray has run an excellent campaign. His signs are on lawns throughout the district. He just gets his list, goes out there and knocks doors. His campaign manager, Pat Morrison, understands grassroots politics and has done a great job. Larry’s campaign has been visible as well.
Ray has been deeply involved in the charter school movement and has worked for Christiana Healthcare. He isn’t really well-informed on the issues. But not many people, especially in the Ardens, are aware of that background and/or don’t care. I make him the slight favorite over Lambert. Why? Because campaigns matter.
Why do you guys put no credence in TNJ story on Davies? The State News also had something similar. Din’t you think it’s possible she was misusing her position, as they both reported?
Neither one reported that. They reported the findings of a much-massaged, $100,000 outside report. But it fooled people like you, which was the point.
Harold. You gotta keep pace. Nobody’s buying it. Everyone knows
By responding to the Park City trolls we would give oxygen to that debunked Repub/Schwarzkopf hit job. That’s what the trolls want.
anyone from the Eugene Young camp will tell you that this type of armchair politicking is useless and unhelpful when you have underdogs whose campaigns need to run like they are way behind
this blog should be silent from 9am – 9pm every day because we all need to be out there hustling for our candidates, so put your energy on the doors and phones for Kerri Chris Kathleen and any down-ballot progressive you will be heartbroken to see lose on Thursday
here:
https://www.kerrievelynharris.com/volunteer/
https://www.chrisjohnsonforag.com/get-involved/
https://kdaviesforstateauditor.com/get-involved/
what are you waiting for
You are not wrong. You mean not wasting time. It’s a fair point.
“this blog should be silent from 9am – 9pm every day because we all need to be out there hustling for our candidates”
I would never in my life vote for a politician because somebody came to my door unless it’s the politician herself. I don’t buy anything salesmen go door to door to sell.
Also, I abide by the words of the late Paul Owens, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t stick the dumb son of a bitch’s head in it.”
Finally, I never appreciate someone telling me what I should do. I wouldn’t let my boss do it when I was being paid, so measure your effectiveness accordingly.
Don’t take it personally.
You’re not the average persuadable voter.
So. 2016 pstd. Who for some reason I guess is female..
She mentioned Eugene alum. Maybe people who should have done more so a rentier isn’t mayor now.
She made a challenge to people exactly like me. It’s received in the spirit it’s given. And I’m doing everything I can.
That’s my context anyway.
Huh? My comment is in response to Alby saying canvassing doesn’t work. I was stating that someone like them (commenting on a blog) isn’t who canvassing is intended for.
Ah. Apologies. I blame this new reply function.
The point is to remind people there is an election on Thursday, not necessarily to argue for your candidate. On the other hand, if you only vote because a canvasser reminded you there is an election this week, you are probably going to vote based on name recognition or some superficial reason.
Seconding Jim C.’s question about NCC Sheriff: Incumbent Pratcher or challenger Scott Phillips? I’ve gotten a few flyers from Phillips, nothing from Pratcher, but also haven’t heard about any scandals in the office.
Why is this (also Register of Wills) an elected position? Can the Sheriff influence policy? Why wouldn’t we want competent career administrators for these two positions instead of changing the boss every two years?
“The Sheriff and his Deputies should never be armed in public. Every urban riot, shoot-out and blood-bath (involving guns) in recent memory has been set off by some trigger-happy cop in a fear frenzy.”
“It will be the policy of the Sheriff’s office savagely to harass all those engaged in any form of land-rape.”
Points five and six. Freak power platform. Thompson for Sheriff. Woody Creek Cricket Club, Colorado. The year of our Lord (Jesus Christ) Nineteen-hundred seventy.
Paula, abstain, on moral grounds. -R
“If we can’t win in Aspen, we can’t win anywhere.”
—Hunter S Thompson, The New York Times, November 1970.
Anyone else with any information about the current race?
This is good information.
I don’t deny the goodness of your information, but I refuse to abstain on moral grounds on moral grounds, so I am looking for even gooder information, preferably about relative merits of the candidates. Cheers!
Write in Thompson. That’s what I’m doing. You’ve talked me into it.
Hey, I made a difference!
Is anyone on this blog looking at finance reports? For instance, why is R Senator Colin Bonini writing a big check to Charles Potter? Politics makes strange bedfellows…
Scuttlebutt–writing a piece on it now…
Anyone who can’t see the horrible hatchet job perpetrated against Davies from the McGuiness campaign AND the Auditor of Accounts office needs to get their eyes checked!
What a way to torpedo your career!
https://exceptionaldelaware.wordpress.com/2018/09/04/tammy-smith-from-auditors-office-uses-social-media-to-smear-davies-while-mcguiness-family-spreads-the-hate/
Matt Smith, aren’t you on a charter school board or something? Didn’t you speak out against the charter school auditing bill? You know, the one that would have put stronger checks on charter schools when it came to their audits. Yeah, that’s what I thought.
Matt just got burned by Kevin Ohlandt.
I knew neo-liberal garbage was around. I could smell it.
Well played, Kev.
Any predictions from the House 7th? There’s like 5 candidates trying to replace Byron Short and I’m looking for some feedback. Thanks!
From all the indicators I can figure out, Daigle looks like he’s in a good position. But who knows with the wildcard Rose Izzo!?!
Yeah, I was looking at those two in particular: Daigle because he entered in 2016 before Short dropped out of the US House race and decided to run for re-election, and Izzo because she is a wildcard. I wouldn’t be surprised if those were the top two in the 7th race.
My comments are above. Izzo is not a factor. I thought Daigle would be the favorite months ago, but he has run a tepid campaign at best. Wish I knew why.
Think it’s between Larry Lambert and Ray Seigfried. They’ve both run good campaigns. I think it all depends on turnout in the Claymont ED’s, which should favor Lambert. I think Seigfried wins west of I-95, including a strong margin in the Ardens.
Ah gotcha. Nice to know that tid bit of information. It is always on turnout. I can’t wait to see the final results.
It should be pointed out that outside of legislature, Dennis E Williams’s resume is CEO, corporate budget director, corporate controller. I’m definitely voting for Davies.
A little over a month ago, I was initially planning to vote for Williams but I found some red flags in his finance reports, which is bad for any candidate, but REALLY bad for a candidate for State Auditor. My girlfriend and I received his mailer a couple days ago; it was such a crazy word salad that it actually made us laugh for the rest of the night.