‘Texodus’ Foreshadows the End of the GOP
There’s a famous passage in Ernest Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” in which the author’s avatar asks a drinking buddy, “How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways,” the friend replies. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
The GOP already is in the “gradually” stage of collapse. The “suddenly” phase could arrive as soon as 2020, via what’s being dubbed the “Texodus” of Lone Star State Republicans from Congress. So far six, from both swing districts and safe seats, have announced they won’t seek re-election, and more retirements are expected.
What’s behind it? Beltway reporters bring up the fact that the GOP is in the minority, so members have little to no power, and even that is diluted by the party’s insistence on rotating members off committees, preventing them from accumulating any power on an individual basis.
That’s all true, but it’s not as compelling as what a diarist at Daily Kos who tracks Texas politics laid out: The GOP needs low turnout to win in Texas, and it’s highly unlikely to get it.
It’s long been true that Democrats outnumber Republicans in Texas; the trick has been getting them to vote. The 2014 midterms saw a pathetic 28% turnout. That jumped to 46% in 2018, which has led the state GOP to predict a similar increase from 2016, when 7.4 million of the state’s 17 million registered voters didn’t cast a ballot.
As the diary explains, the surge in turnout didn’t just endanger Republicans in Congress. It also unseated enough state reps and senators to end the GOP’s super-majorities. A bigger surge in turnout next year is expected to further erode those majorities. It could well be that the GOP’s embrace of more open racism and xenophobia has awakened a sleeping giant.
The upshot: Texas could be as competitive as Florida in 2020, and could easily tip Democratic after that. The state currently has 38 votes in the Electoral College. That’s as many as Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota combined.
Once Texas tips, the GOP, quite suddenly, will have no viable path to the presidency.
2018 had historic turnout. The blue wave decimated the GOP, to think the election year is going to be any different is wishful thinking on behalf of the GOP. It should be a slaughter.
I don’t know what the numbers are, but I can’t imagine the GOP is increasing voter registration. The only hope they have is if they have purged enough voters.
Yep.
That and create chaos after they lose to throw the results into doubt. That’s going to be fun when Trump loses
it is little wonder the Russians and their partners in the GOP are working so hard to depress election day turnout by creating animosity and discord within the Democratic Party.
“Our swing voter is not red-to-blue, Our swing voter is the the non-voter to the voter.”
– Rep. Ocasio-Cortez,
I honestly don’t follow that math one bit
“Texodus”, love it! The times they are a changin’ in Texas and it’s a very good thing. Great AOC quote.
Did ya see the pics of the Team Mitch teenagers pretending to choke and grope AOC?
Just called their school, Lexington “Christian” Academy, and left a message. “Do you teach the students to be racist, or, is that a prerequisite?”
Don’t suppose I’ll get a reply…
Remember when Lindsay Graham, pre-Trump, said the GOP couldn’t create angry white men fast enough to stave off demographic change? That didn’t mean they intended to stop trying.
Their alternative strategy? Do everything in their power to prevent blacks and latinos from voting. If they fail, they also lose Florida and Georgia. I think they may have already lost Arizona.
Good stuff
This doesn’t even mention the increasing proportion of eligible Texas voters who are Latino. Old white guys die off, Latinos replace them.
That’s why the “you will not replace us” chant is so stupid. Yes, they will, and there’s nothing the snowflakes can do about it.
I have a feeling 2020 may be the last Presidential Election where the standard bearers are older than me (late 60’s). As a kid it seems the POTUS was at least 30 years older. Ike was like our grandfather. After that there will be the Mayor Petes, the Beto’s and the AOC’s. She may just be the first Hispanic president but not necessarily the first female POTUS.
Jim – I like the cut of your jib (gib?)
From your mouth to God’s ear…..
As a Texan for 45 years prior to moving to Delaware, I can tell you that two things are finally converging to Democrats benefit since losing the state offices to W in the 90’s. We urban Dems in my Houston, Dallas, San Antonio/Corpus, El Paso, Austin worked our asses off reforming our party and taking these cities and most of the county around them blue. Second, after a Chicano surge in the 70’s in these areas through good organizing it died of neglect and the Tex-Mex culture of keeping your head down under oppression prevailed. But some urban unionization through SEIU started bringing them back to life in the 2000’s more like LA and Nevada. Acorn and Alinsky inspired groups added greatly to the resurgence. Now, the tragedy of El Paso seems to be a huge impetus to mobilize this fantastic voter block with a very energized Democratic party thanks hugely to Beto. So, hand onto your stetsons compadres.
Good stuff, Stan. Thanks for the backstory.
Thanks. Should be hang onto your Stetson. Thanks autocorrect.
It truly frightens me how so many millions of people can watch this crude, narcissistic carnival barker buffoon and still swoon over him.
Yeah, I wasn’t real impressed with Obama either.
Clever jibe. The facts speak loudly, however. Obama had more class in his Kenyan pinky toe than Trump has in his whole diseased body.
Really? You could actually see Obama as a carnival barker? You make up in imagination what you lack in intellect.
Step right up! Cash for your clunker! That’s right, free money! Don’t worry, we stole it from rich people! Everybody wins!
Spin the wheel of the green economy! Win fabulous prizes! Something for everyone!
You there son, step forward. Why, you could be my own son! Looks just like me, folks!
Interesting watching the decline of miserable old macho uneducated unaccomplished bigot white boys.
I wish it were. It’s just sad listening to privileged people whine, and I’ve spent enough time among them to know that the more privileged they are, the more they think they know how things should be run and, since they don’t actually operate that way, the more they whine.
It’s no wonder Trump is their avatar. Have you ever heard a more privileged person, or one who whined more? He holds both championship belts. I rest my case.
I do, however, disagree with the idea that we should eat the rich. Too bitter for me.
See how xyz manages to stay on message?
“Some unworthy brown person got a benefit from the government.”
It informs everything, all the time.
This sounds nothing like Obama. The “carnival barker” charge isn’t about Trump’s proposals, such as they are. It’s his constant claims that everything he touches is the biggest, best, etc.
As I said, your imagination is impressive. What you have to say, not so much.
Brown militant lesbians are coming for the old bigot white boy’s jobs
, nah ha