What does the Trump Party’s Loss in Virginia Tell us about Delaware?
According to 538.com in Virginia and elsewhere the Democrats overperformed (again) releative to thier “Partisan Lean”(1). Basically voters are still fucking pissed off at the Trump Party and are rushing to the polls to take it out on their local Trump Party Representatives. Politics has been nationalized. So, how will that anti-Trump Party energy look in Delaware? How will Delaware’s Trump Party people do given the fact that it is a Presidential year, when even the most disengaged voters stir themselves to vote?
Cathy Cloutier (SD-5) She is done. Not much to say about this, other than I doubt she even makes it to election day.
Anthony Delcollo (SD-7) The Dems need a half-decent challenger, but Delcollo, like anyone representing the Trump Party in New Castle County is in deep, deep, deep trouble.
Mike Ramone (RD-21) . He should already be naked swimming with the naked swimming club, but Karen Peterson prevailed on “Delaware Stonewall (not) Democrats” (c) to throw him a lifeline. Even if Peterson et al try the same thing again, Ramone is done. He is facing a string challenger, and being a member of the Trump Party is going to play even worse in that district this election. Good riddance.
Pettyjohn and Hocker are deplorables who represent deplorable districts full of Fox News zombies who think “creation science” is science. They’ll hang on, as will the SC representatives. Their names escape me.
Kevin Hensley (RD-9) As a member of good standing in the Trump Party, Hensley should be very beatable in the 9th during a Presidential year. He isn’t though, and that is vexing. If he was half the man he pretends to be he’d have quit the Party of Trump three years ago. That would be nice. Not happening though. He is a Trumper to the core. C’mon 9th District Dems, get it done!
Jeff Speiglman (RD-11) The 11th is America’s most forgotten Rep District. Nothing ever happens there. People are born, live there, and die without venturing out much. They view everything north of the canal as Wilmington. Speig’s will hang on.
(1)Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall,
“He should already be naked swimming with the naked swimming club”
That made me chuckle! Needed that this morning!
Bottom line:
SD-5, SD-7, RD-21, RD-9 should all be electing Democrats. When three of them do it will be a big win. If only two of them flip, that’s a big loss for the Dems.
SD-5/Will Flip
RD-21/Very Likely Flip
SD-7/Likely Flip
RD-9/Not Likely to Flip
Another factor is the collapse of Trump Party support among women. . The Trump Party’s open hostility to women is taking its toll.
62% of women voters have alreay decided to vote against Trump. So, take the number of voters in these NC districts held by the Trump Party. Now take (roughtly) 50% of those and assume they are women.
Now remove 62% of those women voters from Cathy Cloutier (SD-5), Anthony Delcollo (SD-7) & Mike Ramone’s totals.
They are done. Kevin Hensley should be done too, but we’ll see.