Super Tuesday Morning Line
The election railbirds have picked a narrative, and that narrative is Joementum. Because South Carolina’s late-deciding voters broke decisively for Biden, he vastly outperformed the final opinion polls. That’s what the political press means by momentum, so Joe has it.
That could all change by Wednesday, because Super Tuesday looks to belong to Bernie Sanders. Over at 270towin.com they estimated how many delegates each candidate stands to win based on an average of the latest polls in each state. I added up the numbers so you don’t have to, but if you want to double-check the math, I got the numbers here. I think some are suspect, but you can dig into the state-by-state numbers at the link.
All of these polls were taken before Buttigieg dropped out. While he didn’t reach the 15% threshold in any state, he had high single-digit or low double-digit numbers in most, and it’s uncertain where his supporters will go. In previous polls their second choices were mixed, but as Nate Silver suggests, it will most help candidates near the 15% line, particularly Bloomberg and Warren.
Some states have been polled more extensively than others, and none have been polled at the district level, where some of the delegates are selected based on their performance in the district, meaning that if a candidate doesn’t get 15% statewide but does in a district, she wins that district’s delegate. With no data at hand, the site merely apportioned those delegates according to the statewide percentages.
The tl;dr version: These are slippery numbers. IMO they serve as a marker for expectations, so a candidate who outperforms these numbers can attribute it to “momentum.”
Biden 305
Warren 175
Bloomberg 126
Klobuchar 42
Joe Biden need a James Clyburn in every state!
The corporate media will use anything they can to undermine Sanders. I remember the media lynching of Howard Dean like it was yesterday.
Also – Bloomberg is polling #1 in Oklahoma? What a bunch of morons.
it wasnt a lynching. use a different word, pls. dude’s still alive and squealin.
I’m always going to call it that because that’s what it was and we all understand how metaphors work.
It was a Clarence Thomas high-tech lynching.
I don’t think the metaphor is as apt for Thomas, but yeah he said that.
If I knew how to code a chart I could show you the state-by-state breakdown.
Bloomie is projected as finishing 3rd in Texas with 55 delegates. Bernie is first with 101, Biden second with 72.
Oklahoma gives 20 to Bloomberg, 17 to Sanders, 0 to Biden.
California: Bernie 227, Warren 102, Biden 86.
Interesting oddities: Utah gives delegates only to Bernie and Bloomberg. Colorado and Massachusetts give delegates only to Bernie and Warren. Bernie sweeps Maine and Vermont; Klobuchar wins Minnesota but only tops Bernie 42-33 in delegates.
If you give Bernie all Warren’s projected delegates and Biden all those of Bloomberg and Klobuchar, the gap between Bernie and Biden holds at about 300 delegates.
Biden is strongest in Alabama, where he’s set to sweep all 61 delegates.
Someone very important in the Democratic Party must be making some phone calls today…Just waiting on Bloomberg…. Someone with that much money might just tell them to go take a hike though.