George Bush is crafting a GOP debacle in 2008 that will remove Mike Castle from office
The numbers do not lie.
I’ve indulged in some hyperbole here before, but as I see 2008 coming into focus it is clear to me that Castle will lose regardless of whom he faces off against. He might even decide to call it quits.
Here is the deal.
Right now Mike Castle is pushing the bogus ISG Recommendations that, as has been pointed out, are complete bullshit. He might have gotten away with his advocacy of this openly fraudulent piece of nothing a decade ago befor Al Gore invented the internets – but now he is simply looking foolish. But not only is he trying to pretend the ISG is real, he is doing so while trying to keep a couple of other very heavy balls in the air.
1) That he could change his mind about supporting the President in September.
Please. Mike Castle knows that nothing is going to change in September. Bush will say that the surge needs more time (or that it has not really started in earnest yet) and the (now fully Bush-icized) pentagon will say that they just caught a number three from Al Quida – or that Iran is getting super scary and Castle will change his mind about changing his mind. Saying, “While I believe strongly that we must change course in Iraq and bring our men and women home, however, blah, blah blah..”
2) That he is a really effective moderate voice in Congress.
I think that is going to be a tough sell in 2008 for a couple of reasons. Nobody at the News Journal editorial board seems to notice, but voters have picked up on the fact that for all his moderation and “effectiveness” he could not get his stem cell bill signed. Also, it is dawning on many that being moderate enough to say you oppose the President, but not moderate enough to vote against the President is not moderation at all.
Finally, it is now widely accepted fact of life that “moderates” (if he were a moderate) are pretty useless now that Bush has turned every issue (down to funding for children’s health coverage) into irreconcilable “black vs. white” ideological struggles.
While riding his reputation as a moderate worked on some Democrats the last time around, it is only because the stroke allowed him to run out the clock on Iraq and avoid talking about his record in public. A few of the Dem sleepwalkers who absent-mindedly crossover to vote for him woke up, but not enough to make a difference.
As far as his Republicans “base” is concerned, the Business Republicans think that his famous “moderation” is great if by “moderation” you mean keeping the corporate welfare pipeline open. He will always have them (the same voters who Jan Ting rode into office).
But for the Wingnut Republicans his moderation PR is an anathema. The stem cell advocacy alone has the power to bring out the wingnut protest voters and possible the ability to draw Christine O’Donnell into a primary. O’Donnell is regarded as a one issue candidate but you don’t have to listen to her very long to hear her say something soothing to wingnuts about how “congress (e.g. Mike Castle)” is losing the war in Iraq by not supporting the President enough. So if Castle keeps saying that he opposes the President he is handing O’Donnell a shelieghlie. And keep in mind, O’Donnell does not have to win a primary to win her objective – which is keeping a high profile and leadership position in the CPM (crazy persons movement).
But what about the Independents – isn’t it the “swing” voters who pick in the end? Well, that kind of thinking has been pretty well debunked, as it seems that “swing” voters don’t swing nearly as much as they like to think they do. But for the sake of argument, let’s look at what the independents have to say in a recent Washington Post survey:
The responses to the poll’s three Iraq-related questions reveal that independent voters are aligned with the Democratic base and want action on Iraq.
The three critical questions:
#36/37: “All in all, considering the costs to the US versus the benefits to the US, do you think the war with Iraq is worth fighting, or not? Do you feel STRONGLY that way or NOT?“NOT WORTH FIGHTING” Responses: Indies 67%, Dems 85%, GOP 28%, Overall = 62%
#38: “Do you think the goal of bringing stability to Iraq is still possible, or not?”
“NOT POSSIBLE” Responses: Indies 62%, Dems 73%, GOP 35%, Overall = 58%
#39: “Do you think (the US must win the war in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success) or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without the US winning the war in Iraq)? (answers rotated)
“WINNING IRAQ NOT NECESSARY” Responses: Indies 62%, Dems 70%, GOP 35%, Overall = 56%
On EVERY Iraq-related question, nearly 6 of 10 independents are in the “anti-war extremist camp.”
So say you are Mike Castle looking down the road at 2008 and doing the math, “Tom Carper, check. Business Republicans, check. Wingnut Republicans, nope. Moderate Democrats, nope. Progressive Democrats, Oh hell no. Independents, Oh cripes!! Jane !!!!! Jane, get your ass in here!!!
How would you feel about taking that long vacation in Tuscany we always talk about?“
Castle won’t run in a race he might lose – he’d retire first. When has Castle ever taken a risk?
Dems can beat him just by announcing a strong candidate.
I gotta think there is some DIP backroom deal to keep Castle’s seat out of serious contention until he decides to retire.
Here’s the thing: The Delaware Dem party hacks are still playing by DIP rules. I don’t really think Delaware Dems WANT Castle’s seat that badly. If they did, they’d put up a big-name Dem against Castle. Castle would retire, and then the Dem nominee easily defeats whatever Chamber-Of-Commerce hack the GOP runs.
Dre-e-e-e-eam…dream, dream, dre-eam….
“If they did, they’d put up a big-name Dem against Castle.”
Like they can just wave a magic wand and pick who does what. What you’re suggesting is awful close to what you claim to despise.
Anon is correct in saying that the DEMs are definately DIPping (Delaware Incumbent Party for those who aren’t in on the terminology) away from serious contenders against favorite sons – think Castle: when the absurd notion hit the blogs of Tom Carper pleading with Markell to let Carney “have his turn at gov” and just wait for Jack’s turn as soon as Carper retires….as if he annoints his replacement – oh wait!! in DE DIPpiness, that is exactly how Carper took his musical chairs in office outside that of state treasurer).
Think Bob Weiner – the DEMs love his pro-growth attitude on county land use and NEVER RUN HIM A CHALLENGE – UGH
Think any incumbent who does what they are told by John Daniello or Terry Strine and keeps their toes in the boat to rubber stamp the bill de jour.
btw ISG prescripts are very real it is simply too fucking late to implement them Mikey.
Condi Rice should have led the charge over the last year to stablize the central government by drawing all sides together along with the surrounding nations. NEVAH GONNA HAPPEN and certainly the rejection of the ISG findings when they could have served to mitigate the internal Iraqi conflicts was a shame but Jason it was never a sham.
Also, it is dawning on many that being moderate enough to say you oppose the President, but not moderate enough to vote against the President is not moderation at all.
*
dig it
Good points anon and Nancy. A Castle loss is not just a loss for Castle but a loss for the Del Incumbent Party that they cannot allow to happen. It would allow someone they might not like into the club (e.g. Spivack, Bullock) and it would trash the aura of invicibility that they have cultivated for members of the club. Nobody in the DIP wants an election that might be decided at the polls.
Given that Carper can count votes as well as Castle if it looks like a Castle loss is brewing he might have to make a move and give Castle some cover for stepping aside. But who? Biden Jr. ? Carney? Markell? Coons? Maybe some surprise like former state trooper Pete Schwartzkopf or Iraq war vet and Carper amigo Sean Barney?
Markell has ruled himself out. Biden Jr. is just too green and that would probably outrage enough R’s to screw things up. So it is either Coons, Carney or a surprise.
Coons wouldn’t be terrible.
Jace! So many words….so little thought.
“will say that they just caught a number three from Al Quida – or that Iran is getting super scary and Castle will change his mind about changing his mind. Saying,”
So let me get this straight. In Jace world we have all these AQ members queued up ready to pull out at a moments notice when Bush needs a PR boost. You are also saying that Iran really isn’t scary and that is all just a figment of the Administration’s imagination. How does that work exactly? Unless…of course…this is why I am a conservative….I am too blind to see it. Bush must have Ahmadinejad on the payroll, and has him make noise and rattle cages when you all are zeroing in on the secret pipelines we have pumping out of both Iraq and Iran. How could I have missed it.
“Bush has turned every issue (down to funding for children’s health coverage) into irreconcilable “black vs. white” ideological struggles.”
And he has done this completely without the help of the left….right?
As for the rest of your imaginative tale I confess, I have not been in DE long enough to be an expert on DE politics. But having studied politics on a national level, and seeing what takes place in NJ, your view is naive. Voters may be one issue when it comes to mid-term elections, especially if they have a “message” to send. But when it comes to the presidential elections, even the most casual voter starts cramming for the exam.
You keep forgetting, Bush nor Chenney is running. In fact, there will be no “administration” candidate (except maybe from a previous administration. No one to send another message to….except maybe the “saviors” elected in 2006, who currently have an approval rating half that of the President’s low one. So, whomever the GOP candidate is, they can distance themselves from Bush. But the DEM candidates who are currently senators, CANNOT distance themselves.
I have to admit, I like the GOP chances, and I think Castle will get swept in by it.
Quite frankly, unless the GOP completely screws up on candidate selection, I think you are in for four more years of booming economy and no tax increases…..sorry.
we have all these AQ members queued up ready to pull out at a moments notice when Bush needs a PR boost.
Yes.
You are also saying that Iran really isn’t scary
Yes.
Bush has turned every issue.. into irreconcilable “black vs. white” ideological struggles…And he has done this completely without the help of the left….right?
Yes.
You seem to be getting the drift. keep up the good work.
Yes. You are naive….or just plain nuts…probably both.
You sexiest buggers forgot Valerie Biden Owens…
Some of the Hitler youth believed in Hitler to the end.
Of course that has nothing to do with those who still support this administration……..
“Of course that has nothing to do with those who still support this administration……..”
Has more to do with phony baloney liberals that actually think government run programs will work.