El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em (Almost) All For You
Very few competitive races this year. Blame both the registration edges and the failure of the Rethugs to field legitimate challengers (filling empty spots on the ballot with placeholders in August does not constitute fielding legit challengers).
We’re gonna review the ballot from the top down.
US Congress: Lee Murphy is the perfect R candidate. Recites his lines like the actor he is. Doesn’t believe a word he says. Looks the part. Recycles his signs so there’s little cost involved. Little reward either. LBR is of more value as a campaign surrogate for others than as a Representative. Faced with token opposition during a time that democracy hangs in the balance, she opted to tout her bipartisanship in her commercials. Coons, Carper and Carney (no Oxford comma) nodded their bobbleheads in agreement. Lisa wins, 62-38.
Attorney General: Some people dissed Kathy Jennings because she didn’t get convictions on all the corrupt officials she prosecuted. Nevertheless, (a) the officials were corrupt and (b) no other AG prosecuted them. She won’t get as high a percentage as the Delaware Way types because the cops are, you know, discontented. As are corrupt officials. But she’ll win handily as she deserves. I’m calling it 58-42 over RWNJ Julianne Murray.
Auditor: After destroying KMG, Lydia York will roll over RWNJ Janice Lorrah, who has run an invisible campaign. 62-38 is pretty much my default for non-competitive races.
Treasurer: Colleen Davis clearly has political ambitions beyond being Treasurer. She’s pretty much everywhere campaigning for pretty much everybody. Since she doesn’t really stand for anything, she’s a perfect candidate for, say, Lieutenant Governor. She’s running against Greg Coverdale, who is Black. You see, Rethugs aren’t racist, or so they want you to believe. Black candidates make great sacrificial lambs, and it provides cover for the unrelenting racism that underlies the Rethugs’ raison d’etre. Hope Coverdale is getting something out of it. He’s actually a very well-qualified candidate. Better qualified than Davis in fact. Davis, 62-38.
State Senate District 1: Sarah McBride has an opponent of sorts–Scott Walker, running as a write-in. McBride, 92-8. Come to think of it, it will be higher than 92%. Most of Walker’s supporters can neither read nor write.
Senate District 4: Ted ‘Horsey D’ Kittila, fresh off his ass-whooping at the hands of Bud Freel, is back for yet more punishment. This time, at the hands of first-term incumbent Laura Sturgeon. All you need to know is that former Senator Monsignor Greg Lavelle, flush with campaign cash, opted not to run. Sturgeon beat Lavelle, 53-47, back in 2018. The registration figures are far more daunting for the R’s this time around. I’m looking at Sturgeon, 60-40, this time. Kittila is in danger of becoming one of these perennial candidates who becomes more of a laughingstock with each unsuccessful run.
Senate District 5: I don’t think that State Senator will be the final office that Kyle Evans Gay runs for and wins. After knocking off Hockessin’s Cathy Cloutier in 2020, ending Cloutier’s long and undistinguished career, she will make mincemeat of name-on-the-ballot Daniel Schmick. I’m going 63-37.
Senate District 6: From Schmick to Smyk. This is one of the very few competitive races in the state. Ernie Lopez retired from this seat, perhaps to spend more time with his family, well, I don’t know who wants to spend more time with him. This eastern Sussex district has the following voter registration: 18,942 D; 15,770 R; and 11,471 I. Russ Huxtable handily won the D primary over John Bucchioni. He will face ex-cop and soon-to-be ex-state rep Steve Smyk, who has been accused of police misconduct with, of course, no follow-up or word from the State Police. By all accounts, Huxtable is very well-liked and, although Smyk likely has more name recognition, he’s also made enemies. He’s far to the right of the district’s electorate. I think Huxtable wins a close one, 52-48.
Senate District 7: While we know that this district can elect a Republican, with Anthony Delcollo having defeated a past-her-sell-by-date Patti Blevins, there’s no way the voters will elect a self-described ‘character’ like M. Sherm Porter. Why, he’s a ‘Business Success Coach’. You know, after years as a caterer. (You’d think that if he was a successful caterer, he’d, you know, remain a caterer. But what do I know?) I think the 7th SD can and should do better than Spiros Mantzavinos, but No-Term Sherm (you’re welcome) isn’t the answer. 60-40 Spiros.
Senate District 8: President Pro-Tem Sen. Dave Sokola faces yet another real estate agent trying to gin up business. His name is Victor Setting II. Can’t embellish it more than that. Sokola 59-41.
Senate District 9: Sen. Jack Walsh faces one of the more impressive R challengers in Brenda Mennella. For some reason, she’s running on a pledge to enact Congressional term limits, presumably by signing a petition or something. She ‘stands against crime’. By ‘more impressive’, I mean ‘less unimpressive’. Oh, she’s Black. She’s not beating the senator who sponsored the minimum wage increase. She’ll be on the losing end, say, wait for it, 62-38.
Senate District 12: While I welcome a challenge to Sen. Nicole Poore, one of Delaware’s most self-dealing legislators, challenger Bill Alexander represents everything we need less of in the General Assembly. Ex-state cop with a golden parachute second career at, wait for it, Del-Tech. Lustily eyeing that third state pension with the General Assembly. Not gonna win, though. Poore, 58-42.
Senate District 14: Kyra Hoffner vs. Mark Pugh is another of the very few competitive races this year. While Hoffner might be slightly left of the district overall, she’s not that far left, and the district isn’t as conservative as you might think. It’s become more suburban over the last 15 years or so. Pugh has been active in a lot of community organizations, and is a formidable candidate. However, the registration is challenging for an R (wait while I do the latest math…): 18,710 D; 10,130 R; 9893 I. With Bruce Ennis on board, I don’t think it will be as close as some project. Hoffner, 55-45.
Senate District 17: Sen. Trey Paradee faces some name on the ballot. For completists, Ed Ruyter. Doesn’t appear to have a website. Looks like he’s either a real estate agent and/or a logger. A good combination as he can build log cabins, then sell them.
Senate District 18: Mush-mouthed auctioneer Dave Wilson faces D Bill Devary in what promises to be a non-competitive race. He doesn’t appear to have a webpage either. Looks like he might have sued the Delaware Department of Education a few years ago. That’s all I’ve got. Wilson, 65-35.
State Rep. District 1: Wouldn’t shock me to see a decent amount of Shane supporters cast their votes for R challenger Mark Gardner, who seems like a decent candidate. He’ll likely outperform the registration figures by quite a bit, but the registration figures are too much to overcome. Nnamdi, 65-35.
RD 4: The House D’s could have made this district more competitive following the redrawing of the lines, but Pete clearly chose not to. While not overwhelmingly R, the I’s tend to vote like R’s here. Keegan Worley is a good candidate and hopefully has a political future, but Jeff Hilovsky prevails, say 57-43.
RD 5: Couldn’t find out much on R challenger Alexander Homich. Not that it matters in this modified barbell-shaped district originally drawn to spec for Lonnie George’s daughter. (It’s less of a barbell now, but remains a barbell nonetheless.) Incumbent Kendra Johnson easily disposes of the challenger in this overwhelmingly-D district. 70-30.
RD 6: The primary was the de facto General for Deb Heffernan. Her opponent, Michael Krawczuk, will not benefit from many Cotto supporters flocking to him. His so-called bio is a non-bio bio:
Mike Krawczuk is a proud Delaware resident, husband, and father who has over 20 years of leadership experience in the financial and industrial sectors. He is the founder of two successful small businesses, and he understands how to work hard to achieve results.
Here’s more:
With more than 25 years of professional experience in service-oriented roles, Mike Krawczuk has learned a lot about building relationships, achieving goals, and reaching mutually beneficial outcomes. From securities trading and wealth management to manufacturing and corporate catering, Mike’s diverse professional experience has followed a common path: providing excellent service. As service is the fundamental component of government, Mike is confident he can extend this commitment to the public sector by better serving the residents of the 6th Representative District.
Ya know what that says to me?: Fucking guy can’t keep a job. He’s not getting this one. Heffernan, 70-30.
RD 7. There are names on the ballot. Then there is Shane Stoneman. Claims he’s been a bodyguard to the stars. Which, to me says he follows Lee Murphy around. He’s running against one of our best freshman legislators, Larry Lambert, whose district is even more solidly D since redistricting. Lambert, 70-30.
RD 8. The Rethugs think they struck gold here. Their kind of candidate–a career cop. A Black career cop. You’ve all seen him with that goofy state trooper hat on. (Just curious: What, exactly, is the purpose of that hat? It’s goofy.) Rae Moore is a first-term D, and perhaps more vulnerable than most. However, registration is destiny here–10,164 D; 4864 R; and 5053 I. Moore, 56-44
RD 9: The ‘fools’ gold’ district. Registration suggests it should be a D district. And it can be. But not with Terrell Williams as the candidate. Gotta give props to Kevin Hensley. He’s made himself popular here. Hensley, 58-42.
RD 10: It’s getting to be about time for Sean Matthews to face a challenge from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. As long as it’s not Dennis E. Williams again. However, Brent Burdge is yet another R sacrifical lamb. An RWNJ sacrificial lamb at that:
The current State Rep is not representing Brandywine Hundred anymore. We need someone who will serve the interests of our community rather than going along with the Democrat party bosses and the radical progressive leaders.
Not sure which Brandywine Hundred he’s referencing, but it’s not the one I live in. Prediction: He will run for School Board next. And lose. After his 70-30 defeat at the hands of Matthews.
RD 12: Holy Moley! Ben Gregg‘s home page is exactly the same as Brent Burdge’s homepage. I guess an economy of scale is in order when Chris Kenny is paying for them:
I strongly oppose what is currently being forced upon us by the progressive theory of the current Democrat Party. I feel and think it is time for me to do my duty.
Since being the Membership Director of the Delaware Rifle and Pistol Club isn’t enough. Looks like another 70-30 skunking, this one at the hands of Krista Griffith.
RD 13: I suppose that a credible R challenger might have posed a threat to DeShanna Neal after her narrow primary win over Larry Mitchell. But not this Carlucci Coelho, who raised a pittance. He’s also another cipher, whose profile tells us next to nothing about him. Neal, 60-40.
RD 14: Popgun Pete is headed back to Dover, with or without his manhood. Assuming he wants to. If that caucus doesn’t demote this fucking guy, I’ll be absolutely shocked. He has an opponent of sorts. Carl Phelps. Military and paramedic background. Not unqualified. He’s gone into debt to the tune of $11K on behalf of his campaign. Which is what happens when you run against a bully determined to exact retribution on anyone who crosses him, especially contributors to his opponents. I’ll go 70-30 with perhaps a few more D stealth votes against Scwartzkopf than in previous campaigns.
RD 15: Props to Michael Higgin for challenging one of Delaware’s Most Corrupt Public Officials. But Val Longhurst‘s war chest is even larger than Speaker Pete’s. To her credit, she’s spreading the spoils around, which is what you do when you want to be the next House Speaker. Higgin is also in debt, which is what happens blahblahblah. Nobody dares give to you. Longhurst, 70-30.
RD 18: You didn’t think that Sophie Phillips would trounce her opponent in a primary just to be taken out by an R in the General, did you? Don’t worry, it’s not happening. If you can find out anything about Gloria Hope Payne, please share. I couldn’t. Phillips, 72-28.
RD 20: The D’s had a good chance to make this race competitive. But only Stell Parker Selby stepped forward. You may remember her as Jack Markell’s R opponent in his run for State Treasurer. Former R with some, um, odd views for a D. She’ll lose, on merit, to Dallas Wingate. Call it 58-42. A missed opportunity, due largely to the moribund Suxco Democratic Party. Get rid of the old obstructionists!
RD 21: The primo House race of the year. I’ve literally never seen someone with Frank Burns’ background run for office. He also comes right out and says what he stands for on his webpage. He is running against that sleazy survivor, Mike Ramone. Ramone has struggled to make his patented smears stick against the likeable Burns, and some of his votes, particularly on abortion, have come back to haunt him. I know the grassroots team behind Burns. I feel very optimistic about this, and I think Burns defeats Ramone. Call it 53-47.
RD 23: Mike Ramone’s daughter is poised to meet an even more grisly political fate at the hands of Paul Baumbach, who is one of Newark’s most popular elected officials. I agree with someone who suggested that the R’s put her up so that they could put up more signs with Ramone’s name on them. We don’t need to rerun her photo in full MAGAt regalia, do we? We do? OK. Baumbach, 70-30.
RD 24: Ed Osienski is a perfect fit for his district. Minimum wage and pot legalization. His opponent Joan Godwin appears to be running a campaign based on–nostalgia?:
I grew up as a proud Delawarean, and I remember our golden age with leaders like Pete DuPont, Bill Roth, and Mike Castle. But it’s a different story today, and Delaware is no longer in good hands like those. We are moving in the wrong direction. The great businesses and industries that once defined our communities and our way of life, like Chrysler and Avon, have left, and only empty buildings remain.
The people of the 24th don’t yearn for a return of the Greenville crowd and the Golden Age that never was. Nor do they yearn for Joan Godwin either. Osienski, 68-32.
RD 25: You didn’t think that Cyndie Romer would trounce her opponent in a primary just to be taken out by an R in the General, did you? Don’t worry, it’s not happening. Lynn Mey doesn’t suck, and she runs marathons. However, this was a sprint to Election Day. Romer, 64-36.
RD 26: Madinah Wilson-Anton will have no reason to apologize come November 8. Nor will she. Tim Conrad lost to Madinah by a 72-28 margin in 2020. Look for a similar result this time. His campaign is so hopeless that I don’t even know if that trailer park guy will pony up. Let me check–nope, doesn’t look like it. Banked a total of, wait for it, $199 on his eight day report.
RD 27: Much to my surprise, Eric Morrison has become an absolute machine. He’s running against two-time loser John Marino. You know, the ex-NYC cop who retired on disability. He’s Pistol Pete’s kind of candidate. (Which reminds me, why hasn’t Marino gotten a golden parachute at Del-Tech like all the other undistinguished cops-turned-would-be-politicians)? He’ll also be a three-time loser come November 8. Morrison, 58-42.
RD 29: DINO Bill Bush faces only token opposition from Marc Wienner, who raised a decent amount of money, much of it from other R officeholders. The only Marc Wienner in Delaware that I could find is a computer guy who hasn’t worked since 2011. If anybody has anything more up to date, feel free to share. Oh, look at this. He’s taken pictures on both the House and Senate podiums. Why, he’s a veritable Speaker Pete and BHL. Ho-kay. If Bush is to be defeated, it will have to be in a D primary. Bush, 63-37.
RD 31: Sean Lynn, one of Delaware’s better legislators, faces Jason Stewart, whose web address is unreadable on the Kent County R page. He’s a veteran, has his kids in virtually every picture, and he’s Black! Didn’t raise much money. Doesn’t seem to have a job. Don’t know what his fallback position is once he loses, though. Which he will. Lynn, 65-35.
RD 32: I’ve been remiss in mentioning a recurring theme in Delaware Rethug messaging this year: “Our parental rights are under attack.” You know, from ‘the government and the unions who run schools.’ Thus saieth Cheryl Precourt and her coterie of ditto-heads. She’s run before, usually on a virulent anti-abortion platform, which she is downplaying this time. Gee, wonder why. For Kerri Evelyn Harris, the primary was the General, and she will dispose of this MAGAt handily. 65-35. Oh, BTW, one more Rethug talking point?: They will introduce a Constitutional Amendment to prevent the defunding of police. These peeps ain’t got nothin’.
RD 34: A couple of cycles back, I thought that Ade Kuforiji might be a serious candidate. Then, I realized that he raised next to no money. In his case, meaning he didn’t even try. Same has held true this year. Lyndon Yearick wins, 70-30.
RD 39: Susan Clifford challenges R Minority Leader Danny Short. She has gotten contributions from some pretty progressive organizations. Problem is, progressivism isn’t popular in western Suxco. Or central Suxco, for that matter. I’m glad she ran, but she’s the right candidate in the wrong district. Short, 62-38.
NCC District 2: Someone named Jamie Collins is allegedly challenging Dee Durham in this Brandywine Hundred Councilmanic District. I say ‘allegedly’ because there’s no proof this guy exists. No pictures, no website, no nothing. His campaign finance report, such as it is, was weeks late. Oh, and his filing statement was replete with misspellings, including the name of the street on which he allegedly lives. Durham knocked off the smarmy Bob Weiner last time, and she’ll defeat Collins, 67-33, whether he exists or not.
I’m not touching the Kent and Suxco Counties local races. Why? Don’t know. Don’t care.
Man, I don’t ever want to write a piece this long again!
Phew. That’s a lot of probably not much happening. Maybe 1 Dem pickup? (Burns). I need to read through again to confirm that.
And not even really a pick up. It’s a wash if we lose HD 4 to a Republican. And if we don’t get Burns, it’ll actually be a loss of one seat.
Yep, you’re right. But the House is down at least two cops–Mitchell and Smyk. And the Senate would be down one–Ennis.
Oh, and Speaker Pete is almost certain to be demoted.
The ranks of the Kop Kabal continue to thin.
Next time: We go after Franklin Cooke and, if he’s still around, Former Speaker Pete.
Also, don’t underestimate the increased progressivism in the House. Kerri is a big improvement over Andria Viola Bennett, and DeShanna is replacing Kop Kabalist Larry Mitchell.
Plus, Frank Burns is the real deal. If he beats Ramone, and I think he will, it will definitely be a more enlightened Caucus, and one with a strong progressive bloc.
Murphy may (smartly) reuse signs but at least they arent double sided and unreadable like LBRs
Also, maybe one Senate pick-up (Huxtable).
All this dude needed to do is change the Office and District number to Get out there and lose again:). If you look at the Newark Post Archives, he has a colorful History.
He will Lose to Kendra as he lost to Marie, the only question is who gets bragging rights for the largest margin.
Delaware State Senate – District 13
Alexander M. Homich is running for Delaware State Senate – District 13.
The person as represented by photos from their official press.
ALEXANDER M. HOMICH
REPUBLICAN
CANDIDATE FOR DELAWARE STATE SENATE – DISTRICT 13
In other news I just got a Robo call from the “Bodyguard to the stars” Mr. Stoneman. The average age of landline users is older than me so there’s that.
I still have a landline, but never answer it. All spam, all the time. Memo to self: Get rid of landline.
Mine is part of my Internet package I don’t know the number. I use it as a way to find my misplaced cell and occasionally to amuse myself with the live spam callers and I do answer it during election season to see who’s polling and sending ROBO calls. I have gotten at least 5 from Heffernan’s opponent.
By far, the most fascinating storyline to come out of the legislative races will be what happens to the House D leadership team. I haven’t even mentioned the dynamics that both Sophie Phillips and Cyndie Romer will bring to the equation.
In the most recent cycles, the House D’s have caucused within two days of the election under the iron fists of the Schwartzkopf/Longhurst leadership team. Didn’t want any incipient opposition candidacies to grow at Return Day.
Will that happen this time? I don’t think Schwartzkopf is in a position to force it. I don’t think anybody has the votes yet. I don’t even know what kind of deals will have to be cut to mollify enough Caucus members.
Something to look forward to.
BTW, no open thread today from me. Need time to recharge.
except for when the witch won, has anything really happened in DE politics?
Yes. You have a progressive State Senate. And you have a Rethuglican Party that is consigned to western Suxco, having relocated there from Old Money, DE.
And you have a Democratic Party that has become wide open for the entirety of the Democratic Party to run for (and often win) office.
From what I see and hear, I have to disagree on the 20th RD race to replace Smyk. Smyk didn’t win by much in 2018, when he faced Jack Bucchioni. He probably would have lost in 2020 if he had a Democratic opponent. He didn’t but every Dem on the 20th RD ballot in 2020 won. The reapportioned 20th is is even more competitive for the Democrats, and Stell Parker Selby is not what you painted her to be She stands for progressive Democratic values. Yes, she was a Republican when she ran against Markell in 2006, but back then many African-Americans born and raised in Sussex were Republicans because the elected Sussex Democrats were not exactly pro-racial equality.
Stell was an educator for 30 years. She taught two generations of Cape Henlopen School District students. Many of them are volunteering for her. She was on the school board when the district was created and also served as a member of the Milton town council. Those who know her love her. Her opponent was largely unknown before he filed to run. When he speaks about his candidacy, he mentions he is a retired Army colonel multiple times in the first two minutes. He has raised little money and is, like Smyk in his senate race, largely dependent on the multiple mailings from Chris Kenny’s A Better Delaware. The mailings are word for word the same in the pieces supporting Smyk and those supporting Dallas Wingate. Add to this the vote that will go for Russ Huxtable, whose district includes most of the 20th, and I believe Stell will win. BTW- the Early Voting by Democrats in the 20th RD and 6th SD far outpaces that of Republicans and surpasses the turnout anywhere else in Delaware.
Stell Parker Selby 52-48 Russ Huxtable 53-47
Hope you’re right. You’re much closer to the situation than I am.
I had heard that Smyk abandoned the RD because he realized that he was too far to the right in the district, and that he had made enemies.
You’ve nailed something that I noticed, in my case with Burdge and Gregg in Brandywine Hundred: the use of the exact same language in lit pieces for different candidates.
Thanks! Great stuff, as always, from you.
Found a 4-page piece of newsprint and a door hanger from Gregg when I went out for the paper this morning. (Rethugs must like to campaign under cover of darkness.)
The 4-pager is generic Rethug lit, primarily promoting statewide ticket with a couple of pieces more specific to Gregg.
The Monsignor ought to be ashamed that this is the best his party can share with his neighbors.
It might have been nice if maybe LBR might have spent some time and money instead of paying for daily mailers to me telling me what a great bipartisan she is.
Well, she IS doing some events, phone banks and the like, with selected candidates.
I hope you’re right about Parker Selby.
LBR just spent 2 hours with Russ Huxtable, visiting local merchants in 5 Points Town Center, Lewes, with joint coverage from WBOC-TV (Fox and CBS out of Salisbury, MD).
When they were standing outside, people were coming up to her and telling her (and then Russ) that they already voted straight D.
Russ has also had on the ground help from Senators Sokola, Townsend, Lockman, Pinkney and McBride (twice).
At least LBR made a showing. Carper and Coons have not been seen this election.
I’m always glad to be wrong about LBR. But I rue the day she gets he lifetime sinecure in the Senate. Coons 2.0 all the way.
LBR is more Carper than Coons. Intern and caseworker for Carper when he was in Congress; deputy secretary of Health and Social Services and secretary of labor when he was governor.
.
I think most of your rationale is correct, but your numbers are high when you use 70% (except McBride might be low) on most races. With Sarah, they will not vote for her rather than use their small minds to figure out a write in vote. Your statewide offices look about right to me.
Sen. 4 is going to be closer than you think. closer to 52-54% for Sturgeon. I heard a few people say that she spent more time with decision makers rather than going to the community meetings. Whether wrong or right, it is perception. 53%-47% Sturgeon.
Sen. 6 is going to be close as well, but I think Smyk wins. He is a guy that tells jokes and seems very likeable and people are looking for personality rather substance down there. Kudos to Huxtable for running a good campaign. 51%-49% Smyk
Sen. 14 is probably going the wrong way. Pugh is everywhere and many of the D’s and I’s that went to Ennis are going to Pugh. We’ll have to wait 4 years to get this seat back, but we will when there isn’t such a big primary where no one was able to stick out. 50.7%-49.3% Pugh
RD 8 might be closer. The voters in that area are similar to RD 9 and Rae is barely known by anyone. I can not say that I have ever seen her anywhere and been noticed, even though I am in that area regularly. She should still win though.
RD 13 I don’t think you have calculated the supporters of Mitchell voting the other way because they aren’t comfortable with Neal. Neal still wins but it will be closer.
54%-46%
RD 31 is a little off. Lynn has irritated a bunch of people with his gun bills whether you like it or not. He should still get to 55%-57% though.
RD 39 a few more will vote against Short because he is even pissing off his own party. He still wins but it won’t be as decisive.
I think you’re off on the Senate races. Huxtable is the more likeable of the candidates, and the primary only helped him build his name recognition.
The numbers are far more favorable for Sturgeon than they were in 2018 as she picked up quite a swath from Kyle Evans Gay. Lavelle was far better known than Kittila in that area. And she beat him. Got 53% of the vote. She’ll blow by that this time.
The Hoffner-Pugh race could be the closest, but most conservadems have long since switched parties. Tough to overcome that voter edge. And the district is more suburban, and less rural, than it used to be.
Neal’s opponent, for all intents and purposes, didn’t run a campaign. I stand by that one.
Good thing is, though, that our predictions are out there. I appreciate you making yours. We only have a few days to wait.
I hope you’re right
If you’ve read my past predictions, I’ve been right a lot and wrong a lot.
Not “comfortable’ With Neal? I have a lot of other words for the Mouth breathers of the bowels of Elsmere!
Elsmere is a small part of that district.
True but a disproportionate number of MAGA deplorables;)
“… many of the D’s and I’s that went to Ennis are going to Pugh.”
Probably (sadly) true. Even though he had some good votes, in the minds of the long time residents Ennis was the last Dixiecrat from the Vaughn cabal days. They probably voted for Trump and Ennis.
That said a great many people have moved in who don’t know squat about Ennis or Vaughn. Can Hoffner get them? I guess we’ll see.
Supposedly, Scott Walker switched from a write in in SD 1 to a write-in for Congress. Not worth wasting my time to find out.
Re: SD7- thank goodness “no term sherm” was the best that the Rs could put up. Delcollo could have run again and could have caused some real trouble. To his credit Spiros has pulled out all the stops – I’ve got campaign lit in the mail every day this past week. He’s not shy about putting the FOP/DSTA seals on his mailers either.
My observations are that the republicans are trying to see who can staple the most/biggest flags to their campaign signs and as of yesterday I am seeing sad face signs pop up all over the place. I live in the 21st and I recently got letters from Joe Miro telling me to vote for Mike Ramone, and yesterday I got a letter from Mike Smith telling me to vote for Brittney Ramone. So it seems as if they are even confused as to what is going on over here. Either way they both want kids to work for less than minimum wage at their businesses, so of course I voted for Frank Burns last Saturday. Frank has been killing it with the mailers and outreach. I can only cross my fingers that we can flip this district. All of them in my area scrub their websites of party affiliation and I just worry that it might actually work for a few of them in what seems to be a challenging year to say the least. They are basically running the Mike Ramone playbook which has worked for over a decade. As I said before, I am a long time lurker on this site but lately I have felt the need to participate for my own sanity. Keep up the great work!
Wow. Thanks for the report and the feedback.
Although in all fairness, I’m not sure going from lurker to commenter is a step in the direction of sanity.
No problem. You are probably correct, hopefully I can comment in moderation. It may be more helpful for my family, who while agrees with me, probably could use a break from me.
lol, thanks for the snark!
Chris- I’m curious, if you’re interested in sharing….are you a registered Democrat or Independent? Interesting that you got a letter from Joe Miro encouraging you vote for Mike Ramone..I haven’t received one of these yet. I agree Frank has been killing it!
My wife and I are registered Democrats. Letters are coming addressed to both of us. The one from Mike Smith was strange because it had a letter plus a phone directory flyer with Brittany’s photo on it, similar to what her father left on my door step. We got flipped all around this year, we went from Senator Sturgeon to Senator Sokola as well.
Interesting!
Great stuff. Of course, if the 22nd RD had done their job and had someone run against Mike Smith, he wouldn’t have had time to do this.
Not that I think it matters.
In fact, what they’re doing has all the earmarks of trying to bale water out of a sinking rowboat…
…with a spoon.
Lurker to poster here because… You should see the dishonest, hateful “Socialism Demands” campaign flyer that Brittany Ramone left on my doorstep today in RD23. Never in 20+ years in this house have I received something like this outside of reasonable political discourse. Shameful. I caught up with her and told her so. Hope Baumbach’s vote totals crush her.
What you get from a family of MAGAts is MAGAtry.
I’d like to see a copy of that if there is one floating around.
Same thing received here in the 21st just with Mike’s picture on it. It looks as though he is trying to counter Frank’s message to voters because according to this, Mike is for women’s rights, minimum wage, and gun sense. Obviously his voting record tells a different story. Not sure what’s going to happen Tuesday, but he seems terrified. If he isn’t voted out this time, it will be next time.
” If he isn’t voted out this time, it will be next time.”
I hear that about Ramone every cycle. He survives because he has the tacit support of Dem leadership. When that support ends he can be voted out.
This is true.
Even today Burns is a coin flip at best because the outgoing (and incoming leadership if it is Longhurst) don’t want to add votes to whoever is going to frown on them continuing to “lead” the caucus.
I disagree. This time, ‘this time’ will be this time.
I’m calling it: Ramone’s toast.
E-clip and save.