The Consolation Race
Feroce makes this point:
We are an incumbent driven state, so there are few opportunities (of a candidate doing well against an incumbent or challenger simply because he or she ran against the opponent’s national party) to cite. Even when we have open seats it’s an incumbent rotation.
Having said that, Dennis Spivak is a perfect example of that, he did much better than expected. Furthermore I would contend that Tom Wagner had a scare solely based on a Republican Backlash.
I agree. We are an incumbent driven state. In order to be a credible candidate for an office, you have to be an incumbent of something. We rarely elect challengers that are true outsiders to government. And in open elections, we still choose a person whose “turn” it is. The only examples I can think of where we elected a true outsider not in state government are the Bidens. Joe Biden upset Boggs being a member of the New Castle County Council. In 2006, Beau Biden beat Wharton by not being an incumbent of anything, but we all know his name equaled an incumbency of a sort.
Thus, the Karen Hartley Nagles, Michael Millers, Dennis Spivacks, Jerry Northingtons, Christine O’Donnells, Jan Tings, and Mike Protacks of this world have no chance to win anywhere at anytime in Delaware.
Yes. They. Will. Never. Win. It is true for both Parties. O’Donnell will NEVER beat Markell, Denn, Carney, Carper or Biden. Neither will Protack. If they both had gone the Copeland route of getting elected to the Assembly or the Senate some years back, then, maybe, they would be credible today. But they didn’t and they are not. The same holds true for their Democratic counterparts.
So what we need in Delaware is a race to open up where none of the heavyweights enter the race. Yeah, imagine what would happen if Castle retires, and Carney, for whatever reason, decides not to run for the House race, and no other elected Democrat or Republican decides to run either. Can you imagine the entertainment that would result if we had an Protack v. O’Donnell primary on the GOP side, and a repeat of the Hartley-Nagle v. Miller v. Northington race on the Dem side?
It would be a blogger’s dream.
And throw in Tyler Nixon on the GOP side too. In such a race, he may actually, and finally, stand a chance of getting my vote.
“If they both had gone the Copeland route of getting elected to the Assembly or the Senate some years back, then, maybe, they would be credible today. But they didn’t and they are not.”
So I am suppose to feel like we are doing ourselves a disservice because we don’t just elect a Protack Governor or O’Donnell a US Senator straightaway? Some experience counts right? Not just an earnest desire, a bit of dough, and some idle time…
Um, didn’t Delaware just have such a race for Insurance Commissioner?
How’s that working out?
As for Tyler Nixon, he might have more credibility if he didn’t just make a splash on the blogosphere and then disappear. Can’t get elected that way…
DD bringing the tough love.
These vanity candiates don’t even bring much to the table from a “stirring the pot” perspective.
You need money and/or position to be taken seriously. A fact is a fact.
No, I am just stating my opinion, supporting by facts, on how my fellow Delawareans view candidates.
IMHO, KHN would do well to run for a position in county government if she is really serious about public office.
Ah, The Beast who Slumbers discovers a hole in the argument.
I wasn’t really considering the IC and the Treasurers race, where Markell in 1998, Denn in 2004, and KWS in 2008 would all prove an exception to this rule.
I submit that these ROW offices are akin to getting started in county government, where voters are less likely to view a lack of incumbency as a detriment.
The General theory for the big state and federal offices still stands.
Never say never. It’s true that it is difficult to beat an incumbent, but it’s not impossible! Look at some of the recent state legislature races for some examples.
El Somnambulo also thinks that Wagner is toast. Toast with suspenders, but toast nonetheless.
State Auditor is potentially a very important position and might attract, dare ‘Bulo say it, credible candidates who would actually watch out for the taxpayers.
If there’s one position (other than Governor) where the Delaware Way should be barred, it’s State Auditor.
Three exceptions sort of asks you to get a new rule, DD.
Even if you look at the IC exceptions, two out of the three certainly had unimpeachable resumes. The last not only has a very controversial resume, but defeated a made for the job candidate (who did not continue the standards of Denn in fundraising).
The thing that it looks like you need to start with is some track record of visible leadership — either on issues, in the marketplace or in your community. And all of these vanity candidates lack that.
Thanks, DD, for the honorable mention!
I’ll wait for the slumbering oracle to let me know when my profile is high enough to meet muster.
And if you’ll excuse me now I have to disappear back to real life…errr, survival.
cassandra hit it on the head. Ya gotta have some sort of name recognition and a support network. Starting out running for U.S. Congress, for gosh sakes, is just not going to happen. Delaware’s voters are used to knowing the names of folks on their ballots. They don’t vote for strangers. We are a totally retail state. If you haven’t shaken their hand or been to their cousin’s barbeque fergetaboutit.
The Primary Date needs to change in order for a challenger to upset an incumbent.
Great point. Our primary system is an incumbent protection racket.
“You need money and/or position to be taken seriously. A fact is a fact.”
That’s really the issue. I would put the blame squarely on the candidates when it comes to money.
Raising/spending money is a task you cannot skip. If you’re running for statewide office and you don’t raise money, I for one look at it as a failure on your part to recognize it speaks to your personal effort.
It’s akin to thinking you can go on a trip because you have a free airline ticket, but have no spending money for anything else. I don’t think you should be taking the trip.
I’ve made that mistake in business, hoping that money will come after the fact. It failed to materialize, and I should not have launched the venture, it was premature. The same can be applied to a run for statewide office.
“The Primary Date needs to change in order for a challenger to upset an incumbent.”
Don’t get used to me agreeing with you. I am a proponent of moving it up as well.
Markell beat a 16-year incumbent straight out of the gate as an outsider in a statewide race, and it wasn’t just about money. Message counts, too. You have to give voters a reason to “fire” the incumbent. Too many challengers refuse to “go negative,” even when that simply means pointing out the incumbent’s voting record or lack of accomplishment.
“Markell beat a 16-year incumbent straight out of the gate as an outsider in a statewide race, and it wasn’t just about money.”
He started the race off by loaning himself over $700k! He showed his acumen for knowing what he needed to do to be taken seriously. He subsequently raised a boat load more.
Effort = Result. He proved that.
He didn’t loan himself 700k for his first race in 1998, I don’t believe. That came later. But I agree with you on level of effort.
“He didn’t loan himself 700k for his first race in 1998, I don’t believe.”
For clarification, I meant Governor’s race.
One thing that’s very clear is that a long resume in government does not equal good judgment.
Take a guess who said that statement?
Spending years in the legislature does not prepare you for any higher office.
Ah, but the very three exceptions to the rule prove the rule…..
Denn had position – counsel to the Governor and very many of the folks formerly in that position can still be seen traipsing about in and around Delaware government. David Swayze, Bill Chandler, Tom McGonigle, Bill Quillen, etc., etc., etc.
Markell had money – he may not have loaned it all to himself in the first Treas race, but that’s what opened the door for him. Anyone who can remember that race remembers that he wasn’t the upstart, he was the party candidate from the outset and as “entrenched” in many ways as anyone.
And KWS – Well, if she’s not a product of the Delaware Way I don’t know who is. Who is her benefactor? Where did she come from? And who is she potentially beholden to?
Cassandra’s point of needing to have some “public” track record is correct to an extent, though. All of them translated what public cred they had into an election. This is something te Millers, O’Donnells, Protacks etc. won’t do because they can’t. There is no “there” there nor is there any illusion of a “there” there.
As for the primary being moved, I’ve explained this before: Good luck! It is introduced nearly every GA session as a feel good bill. It will never be worked because it depends on the votes of those who would be most affected by it.