It is Going to Be a Rematch – Biden v Trump
There is no escaping the fact that Trump still owns the GOP. And if you look at it in terms of purely mercenary electoral realities- that’s good news for Biden.
Paul Campos at LGM sums it up:
Two things make this inevitable:
(1) A collective action problem: the only way any other candidate would have a shot at the nomination would be if the race for the GOP nomination featured only two candidates: Trump and Not Trump. That’s obviously not going to happen, or at least not until it’s far too late. The GOP primary structure is heavily weighted towards winner take all, which gives Trump a completely unstoppable advantage in a race with several candidates, since 35% to 40% of Republican primary voters are locked in for him from the jump.
(2) Trump would absolutely ensure that, if someone else were to get the nomination, that person would lose the general election. He’s making the party an offer it can’t refuse — not that it’s going to be necessary to put a horse’s head in anybody’s satin sheets, given that in every significant respect it’s still very much his party from top to bottom.
It’s going to be Biden against Trump, and whatever reservations one might have about another Biden term — mine are based solely on his age — could not possibly be less relevant in this context.
Also:
It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
Seriously, if that is the best we can do in the year 2024, a 89 year old dude vs a 88 year old dude, we have some serious problems
“We have some serious problems.”
You’re just now noticing?
My reference is there will be a lot of “he’s way too old to vote for” people staying home. Trump could be on hospice and his base will vote for him.
There is literally no end to the scenarios people will dream up to worry about. I don’t mean just you.
Biden and Trump are both old enough they shouldn’t be buying any green bananas.
Josh Marshall at TPM says the same thing.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/ignore-the-noise-its-still-trumps-nomination-to-lose
Arthur doesn’t like it and neither do most Americans.
And yet, barring some act of god, this is it.
That said, if some very right or very leftists opportunist see an opening in this, we could get a third (or forth) party entry. That (in terms of purely mercenary electoral realities) would be bad for Biden. With the electoral college advantages baked in that help the GOP, Biden has less wiggle room.
The more I think about it a 3rd party entry, if one happens, would almost certainly be from the left. With Trump as the nominee, there is no lane for outright right-wing lunatics, and the so called “moderate” Republicans only exists in Coons’ imagination.
Whereas, there is some room on Biden’s left. Much less room than I anticipated at this point, but some room. And far left lunatics don’t need much room to get MOUNTAINS of press from the legacy media.
That (in terms of purely mercenary electoral realities) would be bad for Biden.
The Williamson woman is serving that function for now, from within the party.
Ah yes. Already the puff pieces have beguN:
She’s “quirky” but a “major Democrat” who will hoover up funds from Putin and the ‘Club for Growth’ like Steve Rubell demolishing fat lines of coke in his office at Studio 54.
Major Democrat. Because they let her on stage last time.
Lesson: Don’t cater to fringe assholes because “democracy.” If you’ve never held an elective office or administrative office in the public sector, get the fuck off the stage.
I tend to think that Democratic voters have learned their lesson, at least as it relates to Trump. If it is a rematch (and I agree that it is shaping up that way at the moment), folks that thought it was “principled” to vote for the green candidate in 2016 figured out by 2020 that this wasn’t a winning strategy.
We, as a society, have answered the question “what’s the worse that can happen?” and it wasn’t pretty.
Plus, Biden has been effective and probably more progressive than Obama. We stood together for a Senate campaign that elected a guy still suffering the effects of a stroke, we can vote for an old guy that knows how to get shit done.
Exactly. If he were doing a bad job it would be one thing, but I can’t see anyone who would have gotten more done. It helps that Republicans keep pushing programs with approval ratings somewhere between pond scum and syphilis.
It is gratifying to see that the left’s “lesson learning” has been reciprocated by Biden having picked up on the fact that the left is an actual Democratic constituency.
The “old guy that knows how to get shit done” calculates that the remaining D-party voters won’t remember how that shit tasted when he sold out the rail road workers.
They don’t remember it now.
Be honest, you didn’t vote for him the first time, so it’s not like he’s gonna lose your vote. And being in Delaware, it doesn’t matter anyway, he’s gonna carry the state no matter what you or any of us here do.
Assuming for the sake of argument that in 2024 d-party voters won’t remember how Friend-of-the-Unions Biden sold out the rail workers, do you think the Trump & Co. won’t remind them? Kinda makes Williamson or any ham sandwich look like a better bet.
There you go again. Sure, Republicans will flock to an empty-headed New Ager.
We all know you’re only here to dump on Democrats. A ham sandwich has more interesting things to say than you do.
It’ll be fun to vote for Marianne Williamson in the primary though.
You’re right. The Republicans would be completely baffled on how to stymie someone who’s never been anywhere close to government before.
Here’s the more interesting question: Let’s posit that a health situation renders Biden unable to run.
Who gets the Democratic nomination?
Gavin Newsom
Haris
See, this illustrates the problem. Yes, Joe’s too old, but the type of person we want is not among those on the next rung down. Newsom, Harris, Mayo Pete, Beto and Gretchen Whitmer are the names that come to mind. I’m not too impressed with the first four, and I don’t know much about Whitmer.
Hakim Jeffries
He’s young.
He’s black.
He’s corporate.
He’s Zionist.
He’s pro-war.
He’s just the type that would choose Coons for a VP.
The Rock, Oprah, Matthew McConaughey
My conservative (but Never Trump) father has donated to Nikki Haley already. I wish he would stop wasting his money, but it makes him feel better so I dunno.
Tell him to buy scratch-offs instead. Better return on investment.
Vox article today:
https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/3/1/23610230/joe-biden-2024-campaign-election-democrats-kamala-harris
“Joe Biden is pretty good at being president. He should run again.” (Some Democrats aren’t excited about Biden 2024. Here’s why they’re wrong.)