Gallup: Republicans Are Tanking

Filed in National by on May 19, 2009

There are new poll results out from Gallup about partisan identification, and it’s not good news for Republicans.

The decline in Republican Party affiliation among Americans in recent years is well documented, but a Gallup analysis now shows that this movement away from the GOP has occurred among nearly every major demographic subgroup. Since the first year of George W. Bush’s presidency in 2001, the Republican Party has maintained its support only among frequent churchgoers, with conservatives and senior citizens showing minimal decline.

Voter identification (with leaners) has changed from 45% (D), 44% (R) [33% (D), 34% (I), 32% (R)] in 2001 to 53% (D), 39% (R) [36% (D), 37% (I), 27% (R)] in 2009. That’s a stunning change. In fact, there are now very few Republican-leaning Independents, according to this survey. Republicans have lost with almost every group, they have lost the least ground with people who attend church weekly (no change), conservatives (-1%), 65+ years old (-1%) and nonwhite (-1%). Republicans have lost the most ground with college graduates (-10%), young people 18-29 (-9%) and moderates (-9%). These are not numbers of a growing party.

George W. Bush was a disaster for the country and it’s reflected in the party identification. Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich and Dick Cheney are failing to persuade people to take a second look at the GOP. I don’t know how much more evidence that Republicans need that they’re heading in the wrong direction.

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Comments (49)

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  1. this is so weird because David Anderson said that the Dems are going to be surprised in 2010 when the GOP lays down a thumping

  2. jason330 says:

    According to Rick Jensen the problem is that Republicans are not conservative enough.

    GO RICK! WOOHOO!!!

  3. anonone says:

    Let’s all sing along!

    So long sad times
    Go long bad times
    We are rid of you at last

    Howdy gay times
    Cloudy gray times
    You are now a thing of the past

    Happy days are here again
    The skies above are clear again
    So let’s sing a song of cheer again
    Happy days are here again

    Altogether shout it now
    There’s no one
    Who can doubt it now
    So let’s tell the world about it now
    Happy days are here again

    Your cares and troubles are gone
    There’ll be no more from now on
    From now on …

    Happy days are here again
    The skies above are clear again
    So, Let’s sing a song of cheer again

    Happy times
    Happy nights
    Happy days
    Are here again!

  4. Rebecca says:

    Great start to the morning and I loved singing along with anonone.

  5. A far cry from the weird CBS poll. It is not surprising given the feeling in the land from 2006 and no significant change from late last year. Party Identification takes awhile to change either way. People are getting uncomfortable with the Democrats, but at least the Democrats are doing something and not ignoring the problems. I think people respect that.

    The GOP has an opening, it will be interesting to see if it can go through in the months ahead.

  6. I agree with most of David’s statement for once. I’m not sure what the opening Republicans have is. Being the party of “no” isn’t working for them. People want their legislators to work, not obstruct. Obstruction is only popular with the Republican base.

  7. The opening is that the American people are more aligned with Republicans on taxes, cutting spending, abortion policy, immigration, and defense policy. The Democrats have the lead on health care, education, social security, a razor thin lead on the economy, and they have President Obama who is one of the smoothest and smartest political leaders in a long time.

    To beat him, I don’t think Republican can just hope that he implodes. Even if he did having realistic alternative policies would be important for the nation. So I have to return the agreement with U. I. Hi ho, hi, ho its off…. Catch you guys at lunch maybe.

  8. Geezer says:

    David: Your ability to interpret polls is no better than your ability to interpret anything else. But you go, girl.

  9. nemski says:

    Are David and Mike Protack the same person?

  10. liberalgeek says:

    No, but they share a brain.

  11. Who has the brain today?

  12. Bill Dunn says:

    I’ll drag over what I posted on “The View” piece last night for those who missed it:

    I think we all have a handle on the canned Republican rhetoric, regrettably thou, to many Americans parse up a whole hour a week to get their in-depth analysis of national issues from CNN or better yet, Fox News. Nonetheless, I think that faction of the voting populous has for the most part, taken the blinders off and are really not listening to the Rove/Cheney/Hasslbeck lies anymore.
    If the recently elected Dem’s can attach themselves to all the Stimulus projects that get implemented in their districts and take some public speaking queues from Obama, they can lock down those seats that we’ve gained.
    So let them attack Pelosi, let them put Karl Baby on Fox as a political analyst, let Cheney climb up any soapbox he can find and we’ll galvanize the change in political attitude in America.
    Frankly, I give the remaining elected Republican’s about a month before they throw Cheney/Rumsfeld/Rove and Bush under the prosecutable bus in order to stop the bleeding.

  13. The real polls you should worry about are Obama’s which are tanking ever so slowly but deleberately. The man will be on life support soon as the botched economy is now his.

    Also, the poll you quote is pretty meaningless as 34% of people label thenselves as conservative and only 22% as liberal. I guess you forgot the 51% who label themselves as prolife ?

    Keep grasping for straws. I am sure VP Biden will be at the new undisclosed location real soon and will be available for an interview as he now no longer has any role in the Obama White House.

    Mike Protack

  14. jason330 says:

    Protack keeps pushing the envelope on how much stupidity can be crammed into a 8o word blog comment.

  15. anonie says:

    The opening is that the American people are more aligned with Republicans on taxes, cutting spending, abortion policy, immigration, and defense policy.

    1) Obama and the Dems passed the largest middle class tax cut in history just two months ago. 95% of Americans got tax cuts.

    2) When it comes to spending, it depends on whose spending and what it is for. One of the biggest changes has been polling (and voting trends) that shows Americans are willing to pay taxes for services.

    3) Abortion policy? Don’t assume for a second that because a slim majority of Americans are “pro-life” or have a distaste for abortion that they want the government to begin legislating and mandating and limiting personal freedoms. Personally, I believe when it comes to social policy Americans agree with republicans: less government in peoples lives. Unfortunately, republicans don’t follow that creed, it just sounds good.

    Immigration policy? Not so sure what you mean. The numbers in the 2008 elections showed a huge swing in key states with Hispanic voters leaving the GOP and tilting the election. This political reality isn’t going away. Rush and the conservative talking heads killed Bush immigration reform, but the party paid a steep price. If the party’s platform is deport illegals and no “amnesty” they’ll be nothing more than a minority party for a very long time.

    Defense policy? We’ll see. What we do know is the Bush doctrine of intervention in Iraq was, at best, a waste of taxpayer money.

  16. cassandra m says:

    Protack just provided the final piece of data that neither Delusional David or Mr. Shallow Bench thought to bring the brain today.

  17. cassandra m says:

    One of the toughest things that these polls are showing is that young people ID with repubs at some of the lowest rates ever. That pretty much means that the party seed corn is going away. You need to capture members young, because most folks keep the party ID they started with.

  18. RSmitty says:

    I’m not sure what the opening Republicans have is.
    My opinion is that the opening is still within, not a national-landscape takeover. There remains a serious leadership vacuum. The party is figuratively begging for a charasmatic leader that can get the factions to share their common ground and understand the politics that make them unique from one another are the “dressing” and not the “substance” of the party. This is exactly what bonded the Democratic Party under Dean. I honestly thought Steele could (emphasis on “could”) have been that person, but I have been deeply disappointed.

    First, as a LEADER, you don’t apologize to people who do nothing but give incendiary and often misleading opinions. Yes, you know I am referring to Craphead, I mean Limbaugh. I couldn’t care less how many “dittoheads” that bloviated pill popper has, as a leader you must be firm, but with calculated compromise. Steele showed his weakness loud and clear when he backed off of Limbaugh and completely compromised everything any non-CPAC Republican ever had. His original response to Limbaugh and his CPAC appearance was golden, but so little time did it take to realize it was nothing more than shiny formica. He literally defined himself as a potentially good leader first, but then redefined it into a bowl of jello within a matter of hours. Ever since then, it appears his leadership is based on wetting his finger, sticking it into the air, and determining the direction of the wind.

    That is the true opening for the GOP right now, the vacuum that represents the sorely sought-after, charismatic (and strong) leadership that can bring it all together. We need direction. Until then, taking over the national landscape is nothing but a dream.

    Seriously, if leadership paid, I would be making a name for myself. Unfortunately, three young kids and both parents working simply to survive does not allow much room for volunteer politics on a FT basis.

  19. Obviously David is keeping the brain today.

    The conservative/liberal label is pretty meaningless, IMO, because when asked about specific policy proposals Americans favor Democratic proposals. Americans like big government. Why else would Republicans become big government conservatives? They just misjudged what kind of big government Americans wanted, which is not big government in your bedroom.

    I agree, Cassandra, that the party ID number among young voters is killing the GOP, even if their voter ID with 65+ is fairly steady.

  20. Did you all know that the Republicans are voting tomorrow on whether to rename the Democratic Party? I can hardly wait!

  21. Gary says:

    If the Limbaughs and Jensons of the world know so much, why not run for office and actually do something.

  22. RSmitty says:

    because their brand isn’t electable in this environment, but maybe the hypnotic waves eminating from their mic could eventually assimilate and turn the tide. It’s a millenial plan.

  23. Geezer says:

    “The man will be on life support soon as the botched economy is now his.”

    The polling you should worry about, Mikey, is the one showing nearly 80% of voters disagreeing with this contention.

  24. I don’t think fire-breathers like Limbaugh and Jensen are very electable, but Michele Bachmann got elected (more than once) so anything’s possible. Limbaugh and Jensen don’t want to be politicians because they make a lot more money riling up the masses and I think in their heart of hearts they know that politics involves compromise.

  25. cassandra_m says:

    why not run for office and actually do something

    These guys are in it for the entertainment angle — as in getting paid. If they thought that pushing the Green Party would get them ratings and a paycheck they’d do it. This is the real problem with voices on the radio and tv being the leaders of any party — there is a built-in conflict of interest.

  26. Al Mascitti says:

    If my colleague Rick Jensen were elected to office, he would have to give up his talk show.

    And anyone who thinks we make enough money to shun elective office should do some research.

  27. cassandra_m says:

    That wouldn’t be the case for Limbaugh, certainly — and there is still the point that the business of providing an entertainment doesn’t exactly sync up with elected office. c.f. Alan Keyes.

  28. Al Mascitti says:

    Well, duh. Oprah wouldn’t take the pay cut, either, and she’d have a much easier time getting elected than Rush.

    Mike Huckabee stands as an exception to your claim. Successful at governing and not doing bad in the talk-show universe. Then again, he learned the governing part first. People like Rush and Oprah are entertainers, though of course there are successful examples of that, too.

    The point is that conservachatter only has to appeal to 10% of the audience to succeed — as entertainment.

  29. cassandra_m says:

    Duh right back at ya — Oprah isn’t styling herself as the leader of or even a major voice in a political party, with multiple prescriptions and solutions for getting back into power. My point continuing to be that continuing to take advise from people whose primary interest is not the republican party but their own ratings is not a long term recipe for success.

  30. That’s a good point, Al.

    However, Jensen could do both in Delaware. The GA is only part-time, as is county council. Of course, he’ll have a huge archive of statements for the electorate to read/listen to.

  31. anonone says:

    Mike Huckabee stands as an exception to your claim. Successful at governing and not doing bad in the talk-show universe. Then again, he learned the governing part first.

    Actually, Al, he learned how to be a Southern Baptist minister first.

  32. Al Mascitti says:

    A1: Which helps as an entertainer, but not as a governor, in my experience.

    Cass: I mentioned Oprah because she has been asked about elective office. And while she doesn’t choose to spend all her time affecting public policy, when she does the needle moves. Keep in mind, Rush’s self-serving claims about politics are part of his act.

    UI: Rick couldn’t do it because company policy wouldn’t allow it.

  33. Lyn says:

    That people have left the Republican party is sad. The Republicans have moderated their stance on too many issues. They have lost sight of the fact that it is good to stand for things and to have the moral high ground on issues.

    That so many people are Democrats today means that the country is rotting. Education standards are slipping and more people have dumbed themselves down by watching too much TV or smoking too much dope. Eventually half of America will be working hard and paying high taxes to support the unproductive half – Democrats and welfare bunnies. Those of you who are awaiting this won’t have much longer to wait.

  34. nemski says:

    Wait, someone else is sharing Dave and Mike’s brain.

  35. jason330 says:

    Leaches like Lyn (who do nothing but live parasitically off of liberal science, technology, educational programs, labor standards, infrastructure, social safety nets, tort law, defense contracts and culture) honestly think that inner city welfare queens are blowing all of her tax money on fur coats and malt liquor.

  36. jason330 says:

    OMG. Clicked on her blog and the “inner city welfare queens are blowing all of her tax money on fur coats and malt liquor” was so spot on that I scare myself.

  37. Did Lyn also use the socialist sewer, highway and garbage collection system?

  38. RSmitty says:

    Lyn, read my #18 comment and then look at your position again and stop wondering why we hemmorage not only people but ability to lead.

    Has cornering the litmus paper market really worked for you?

    HELLFIRE! YeeeAH!

  39. nemski says:

    OMG. Clicked on her blog

    No, no, no, no, no. I’m not going to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  40. Geezer says:

    I did. Here’s a sample paragraph from, of all things, her Mother’s Day post. I wonder if David Anderson wants to link arms with her?

    “Mother’s Day is a White holiday. I mean think about it why would blacks celebrate Mother’s Day? There is nothing special about a black female having a kid they do it all the time. A White woman having and raising a child means at the very least the world gets another productive, contributing member of society. When a black female has offspring it’s just more forms to be filled out in the short term – WIC application, food stamps application, SSI application, etc. – and in the long run it’s more business for the criminal justice system. Nothing in a black female’s life is worth celebrating anyway. I’m not the only one who feels this way. You can see it every day in the way black females’ kids treat them, black females treat their kids, and especially in the way black males treat their black females.”

  41. RSmitty says:

    Wow, what a racist pig, with apologies to the pig.

    Hey Lyn, second thought, don’t read my #18 comment. Rather, GTFO and create your own party of clueless racist whities, clorox accepted.

    Recommendation, stop going to Lyn’s site to look at the trainwreck. The hits only give more legitimacy to the racist’s existence.

  42. Geezer says:

    No, Smitty, it needs to be aired more widely. David Anderson must be made to see that this is whom he has made common cause with.

    This is precisely why moderates are leaving the Republican Party. It’s not that they’re treated badly and taken for granted — that’s been the case for many years now. It’s because this increasingly is whom the party attracts. Nice company you keep, DA.

  43. RSmitty says:

    Damn, ’tis true, Geezer. Maybe one poor fool can go and copy it to a different URL and drive down the hits…or do a “Going to racist pig’s site so you don’t have to” kind of post.

  44. pandora says:

    I’m speechless. OMG, no I’m not. Lyn is obviously an uneducated moron whose world experience consists of having eaten at Taco Bell. She lives in her own little, racist bubble and is probably raising her kids, if she has any, that way. And when her children, or future children, have trouble in the real world, Lyn already has someone to blame. Now that’s a mother’s love, for ya. Children have to be taught to hate, Lyn. Nice work.

    I did check out the blog (1st and last time). Did you catch this at the end of the posts:

    “Note: This is a disclaimer free blog. If you are White and choose to act against blacks in any way then I absolutely will not discourage you. Good luck and success to you.”

    God, you’re vile. Never have the words white trash been more apropos.

  45. Von Cracker says:

    Lyn is playing Kevin Bacon’s role in Animal House.

    “ALL IS WELL!!!!!!!”

    Otherwise, I’d gather from her screed that anything that is not of her liking participates in the “rotting”.

    So with that, here’s a PSA:

    Bring some fucking logic before you make a fool of yourself! Just so we can say something good about you prior to calling you out for being a fool.

  46. Von Cracker says:

    Lyn’s site must be subsidized by Stormfront…

    My fav, P, is Oprah Winfrey: Kentucky Fried Idiot!

    Talk about a loser looking to shift blame because her world view is crumbling around her and will never, ever be actualized!

    Lyn – the ring around my toilet has more character than you, you vile bigot. I feel less human knowing you exist.

    But an aside: we certainly know which side Lyn and her/his/its ilk supports.

  47. That excerpt from Lyn’s blog is really disgusting. Thank you for the public service Geezer.

  48. If the GOP wants to come back, they’ll have to get rid of people like Lyn. Vile, that’s a great word to describe what was written, VC.

  49. Geezer says:

    UI: The frightening thing is that it’s not some sort of lowlight — I picked it out almost at random.

    I’ll be interested to read what David thinks. I feel sorry for him, in a way. I don’t think he realizes how common such sentiments are in the nether reaches of the GOP.