Obama Closes the Gap
The Obama rally his coming at just the right time. He is leading in Iowa (28% vs Clinton 25%) and is tied in New Hampshire (45%/45%)
On the R side, it continues to baffle me that Rudy is hanging on to his lead, and that Romney (for all his millions) could not get anything going.
I predict the order will be in Iowa:
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Biden
Biden will be in double digits & w/i 2 two percentage points of Clinton.
I keep hearing that Edwards is picking up steam in Iowa.
If Obama wins NH, then Clinton is done.
If Obama wins NH, then Clinton is done.
Please… let it be so.
I don’t know about Biden. He has done very well since October, but still is not really breaking through.
I hope I’m wrong.
“If Obama wins NH, then Clinton is done.”
What is the basis for that analysis, Dana? I wish it were so, but she’s got just as much money as he does, and she’s ahead in most of the Super-Duper Tuesday states. I’m not following your thinking there.
Biden is the horse making the move at the quarter pole turning for the finish line. His ‘win’ factor in debate is quite steady, cornering the best of’ in one or another category and ‘best of’ the whole enchalada at least once (speaking here from the top of my head from what I absorb from the blogs).
Al, I think if Hillary loses those Iowa and New Hampshire, she becomes mortal. She has seemed like the default choice for months (perhaps years) and if she looks like she can be out-hustled by Edwards and out-inspired by Obama, that support is going to be fickle.
That is what I’m rooting for, too. I am happy with Obama, Edwards and Biden. Hillary scares me on many levels.
Al, I agree w/ LG above when he said “Al, I think if Hillary loses those Iowa and New Hampshire, she becomes mortal. She has seemed like the default choice.”
My sense is that the Dem support for her has been a mile wide but an inch deep. After all, on the war she’s a Republican. You’ve talked about it on the air…how the Dems have a quality of gritting their teeth about her and not just from the uber lefties like me
Besides, if she doesn’t come in first in either the first two states, her earlier predicted sweep makes her appear mortal.
I think the Dems initially responded to Clinton & Obama like they often do–the go for the trendy choice, the “Wouldn’t it be nice if we could elect a ___________ for president.”
But I think the run on Clinton being made now, the quick shift in the polls indcates that the Dems are starting to think about what is at stake in the choice. I think they’ll want to play if safe and select someone who has no prime facie issues that will cause them possibly not to win.
That’s why I now think there is a detectable path for a Biden nomination. I wouldn’t stake a dime on it at this point.
Let’s suppose I get lucky and call Iowa & NH right. Clinton wins neither–she is no longer invincible. Obama wins NH. But by then the momentum of buyer’s remorse has set in on the early favorites. Obama is very inexperienced and he’s black. Now polls indicate that Americans from both major parties are prepared to vote for a black candidate and see him/her become President.
But I don’t think that is the impt point. I think that most Americans don’t believe that most Americans are willing to elect a black President. So they then think of playing it safe. “Who should I vote for that can win the general election?” they ask.
If Edwards does well in NH (exceeds expectations), then Biden is hurting on Super Tuesday. But suppose Edwards wins Iowa but pulls a distant 3rd in NH but Biden is nipping at his heels. That’s when what some would call “sobriety” sets in. “Who can we pick that won’t cost us the white house again?” Biden looks good then.
That’s my guessing. And I also realize that I’m indulging my version of rooting for the state team by feeling hopeful for Biden. Loyalties play hell w/ judgment.
What do you see happening, Al, in Iowa & NH?
Way too soon to call. Today I’m leaning toward Edwards pulling an upset in Iowa, because the undecideds gave him the highest marks in the last debate and I think liberals are starting to realize that Hillary wants anything but change and Obama might be too green to get anything done. But that’s today. There’s still a lot of time for someone to screw up.
The reason I won’t write off Clinton is that too many women are going to vote for her just because she’s a woman. Delaware voters probably know better — they have RAM as an example of where that thinking gets you — but you can’t under-estimate that effect. That’s why even a couple of quick losses won’t make her disappear, IMHO.
As for Biden, for all his good reviews in debates, especially in Iowa, and the fact that Iraq is receding as an issue, he’s still the most pro-Iraq occupation of all the Democrats. The bloom is starting to come off the surge’s rose, and it’s not inconceivable that that torpedoes his chances. I think he’ll finish 4th in Iowa, quite possibly a strong 4th, but barring a major gaffe I really can’t see any of the top 3 collapsing far enough to let Biden sneak into the money. Besides, if you had to pick which of the 4 is most likely to make a gaffe, wouldn’t it be Biden?