Polling Shocker: Toomey (R) Would TIE Specter (D) If Election Held Today
This Quinnipaic poll is terrible news for Snarlin’ Arlen Specter.
Nate Silver digs into the numbers, but I this is is pretty straightforward. Democrats don;t have any reason to like Specter and Republicans have one big reason to HATE him.
I think Toomey’s numbers are pretty high but this is a terrible sign for Specter. He has huge name recognition so that means his re-elect numbers are very poor. I think Sestak is going to be the new PA senator.
That would be the conventional wisdom. In part it depends on how much of a fight Obama puts up for Specter in the primary. Gahh!! I just threw up.
It is also for an election almost 16 months away. My take would be that this poll may say something about people being mad at or not trusting Arlen after his party switch. If these numbers are about the same next spring, I’d say Arlen definitely has issues.
This is great news. Ultimately, politics is about winning elections. The only conceivable argument that Specter could make to D’s is that he was more electable. ‘Bulo believes that he is not, that these numbers buttress that belief, and that this will give yet another boost to Sestak’s fundraising.
The Beast Who Slumbers predicted some time ago that Sestak would beat Specter, and that it wouldn’t even be close. This may be one of those rare times when El Somnambulo is correct. In fact, ‘bulo would not be shocked if the primary never happens.
Joe Sestak as our next senator couldn’t be any worse than Arlen Specter keeping the job. But it’s great to see Pat Toomey surging. As the democrats overplay their hand, and the popularity of the national Democratic leadership continues to fall, there’s a very good chance that Pennsylvania will send Pat Toomey to the Senate. 🙂
Dana’s smoking crack. What ya doing hanging with Marion Berry?
I hope I live long enough to see Democrats over play their hand. I dream about them over playing their hand once…just once.
Over playing hands is clearly not a problem Democrats have to contend with, but thanks for the view from Wingnutia. It is always welcome.
Yeah, Jason, I long for the day when the Democrats get just too darn liberal for the public.
Specter and all Democrats are going to have to face the reality of a failed economy, large deficits and more taxation.
Obama will hurt the Dems in 2010.
It is early but Toomey can beat either Specter or Sestak.
Mike Protack
Perhaps Obama may have some very negative coattails in 2010.
Specter was afraid of a primary so his switched parties in the hope of getting a free ride in the general election. Would Democrat voters prefer a retread or the real thing in their primary?
(The same goes for Republicans).
Bloomberg was a Liberal Democrat who was afraid of a primary so he cut a deal with the parliament of whores that constitutes the social club that pretends to be a Republican Party in NYC. Perhaps a few insiders got some tokens of patronage to wear as a bauble.
I don’t think there is much evidence that Toomey will do any better than Santorum in 2010.
What has always amazed me is that Arlen–like Joe Liebermann–always seems to really believe his own press releases about how everybody loves him regardless of party.
A purely political prediction now: Sestak will be the next Senator.
There are a lot of reasons why Toomey will do better than Santorum in 2006. The first being that Santorum did well before 2006. The entire dynamics of the race is different. If Santorum were running in 2010, he would win. Toomey needs to get his message out to these undecided voters before they are told nonsense about him. It is not taken for granted. PA is a swing state. It is a couple of points more Democratic than the national trend as Ohio is a couple of points more Republican. Either state can swing either way.
Lieberman happened to be right. I guess that even though you may be amazed, it happens.
I suspect that affiliation with Obama may do Sestak no good in the General election but his primary victory may teach Specter and his fellow RINOs a lesson about saving their skins with a party jump.
Tie Sestak to ObamaSoc and the Republican wins in November.
A purely political prediction now: Sestak will be the next Senator.
*
Crossing my fingers.