GOP Death Spiral?
Despite what you may be hearing from Republicans, poll results are showing big trouble in the Republican ranks. The latest Washington Post/ABC poll showed Congressional Republicans with an abysmal 19% confidence rating (great deal/good deal), down from 29% in January. (Obama has 49% and Congressional Democrats have 34% confidence ratings, Obama’s overall approval was 57%). This poll also shows 57% approval for the public option, which increases to 78% if the public option is only available for people who can’t find affordable insurance. These ratings have been fairly steady since September after showing a dip in August at the height of the Summer of Spittle.
So, what effect might this be having on national Republicans? One indication may be the NY-23 special election.
Michael Long, chairman of the Conservative Party of New York, is urging fellow conservatives not to contribute to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
His complaint: The NRCC is supporting the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, who he says is out of step with GOP values.
The Republicans have nominated centrist State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their candidate in the special election to be held on Nov. 3. In response, the Conservative Party nominated its own candidate, local accountant Doug Hoffman. Hoffman has been getting some traction, winning endorsements from several conservative groups and garnering 16% support in a recent poll. That has Republicans worried he will siphon support from Scozzafava and let Democrat Bill Owens pull off a victory.
NY-23 is a Republican district and the election is being held to replace Republican Rep. John McHugh, who left the House to become Secretary of the Army. Scozzafava is seen as a moderate. She is backed by the Republican party and Newt Gingrich. Doug Hoffman has been endorsed by Dick Armey, the Club for Growth, the Family Research Council and former presidential candidate Fred Thompson (among others).
Could the Doug Hoffman candidacy in NY-23 become a broader movement next year?
[…]
Reflecting the disgust many voters are feeling with both parties right now, 22% of respondents said they would choose an independent or third party candidate. Predictably 45% of independent identifying voters said they would but so did 19% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats.
The fact that twice as many GOP voters as Democrats would prefer to vote for a third way instead of their own party next year could seriously confound Republican hopes of making large gains in the House and Senate.
72% of the Republicans expressing a wish to vote for a third party candidate are conservatives and 47% of them think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal. That is the exact sentiment Hoffman is tapping into.
Tags: Republicans
Personally, I think this is going to be one of the most interesting stories to follow over the next few years — how the GOP deals with the more radical, conservative, tea party types in their midst. The TPers are tying up a large portion of the GOP base right now, but are unlikely to produce an electable candidate except in the most deep red of districts. Somehow, the mainstream, moderate part of the Republican party has to decide whether they’re going to try to work with them and push the party right, or disown them and hope they die (politically) on the fringe. Either way, it’s gonna be fun to watch.
That’s the real problem: How does the GOP work with the crazies – who they must have to win elections – and the sane portion of the party (that shrinks monthly)?
Let’s make this personal: How does the GOP keep David A. happy while luring Smitty back?
I’m just surprised that Fred Thompson could be bothered to do anything? Did he endorse between naps?
I’d say drop the religious voodoo and incorporate social and class justice into its platform, P.
But otherwise, the current version of the GOP will accomplish nothing more than the status quo, seat and popularity wise. If the powers-that-be don’t get their shit together, you’re looking at a massive fracture within the party – for a while the old guard (wall st) funded the krazy bastardized-christian-cult-populism of social conservatism, as we all know. This money will be pulled and focused on reality-based candidates, but where will be idiot paupers be to vote for the royals’ candidate?
They’ll be voting for Palin or Huckster on American Taliban ticket.
I’m really not sure they can right now. It’s not so much that they seem to be differing voices in the same party as much as different parties altogether. The only hope to bring the Smittypublicans and the David A.
holesers together would be the mutual distaste of seeing a Democrat win a specific election. In other words, whoever is weaker in a given district needs to just take one for the team and help the lesser of two evils (from their perspective) succeed. This plan, though, doesn’t keep the primary from getting ugly.PS — no disrespect intended David. Just a joke 🙂
🙂 Scott P. you are such a kidder. Von Crack smoker Gov. Huckabee will be the next President.
Unstable, you should look at polls of voters not polls put together to get a result. They did not even bother to poll people who are registered. Rasmussen and Gallup show that the generic ballot is very bad news for Democrats. They would take a bath.
You tell ’em, David! Conservatives rule! Go get those RINOs!
It’ll be Pres. Huckster only if the electoral college scoring changes to golf – lowest score wins!
Child please, I’ll take my prognostication track record against yours any day of the week….seriously.
I am not worried about RINO’s. Most of them have lost elections. My focus is on Democrats. They are the ones harming America with their socialist, banana republic programs.
Does your browser have a Mad Libs add-on form?
Never mind the corporate welfare and unconstitutional acts of the previous GOP administrations, especially the last one.
Yes, banana republic….lol
We shall see. So far I have a 12 year winning streak. Clinton 1992 seemed likely, but it was too terrible to actually contemplate. I would love to see your prediction of the market bottoming between 6500 and 6700. The rise and the collapse of oil prices. The rise of Huckabee in February of 2007, the choice of Palin in August or September of 2007, or the rise of President Obama over Clinton in 2007 (even Kavips praised me on that one). I can not be sure of this because it is way too far out, but it is a better than 1 in 3 outcome in my judgment. If I gambled, I would put money on it.
“Child please, I’ll take my prognostication track record against yours any day of the week….seriously.” Von Crack (smok)er makes a code word slur. How clever. That is okay, I will just fire back by saying that your view of America can only be sustained by delusion which is the genesis of the smoker jab.
with child please, i was channeling Ocho Cinco (google it)…wrong again. Claro!
oh, and cracksmoker, HA! crack is not what I smoke.
…and it ain’t poll either! 😛
David A was predicting a McCain Palin win until the very end, so I don’t think I’d pay much attention to that. Plus he was predicting O’Donnell would smoke Joe Biden since Biden would not debate her and the people would not stand for such. So if you have money on anything he is predicting — liquidate your position.
Part of what Scozzafava is facing is what Specter ran away from. I understand that John McCain is working hard at recruiting more moderate repubs to run so I think that at least he gets it. How much real influence he’ll have is n open question. But it seems as though repubs need to sign up for the Fox Noise view of the world lock stock and barrel before the wingnut brigade will give them the time of day and that isn’t going to much of a success story outside of the South, I think.
OK, here’s a test of our prognosticating ability. Right here, right now, predict who will be the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat. Castle, O’Donnell or someone else? What will be the vote total?
Me, I’ll go with
Castle 70%
O’Donnell 30%
Feeling generous tonight, UI? 😉 I’ll go with O’Donnell getting a symbolic 21%. That said, if your prediction is correct than Castle might have a big problem since Christine’s supporters tend to be fanatical and just might stay home once their goddess loses.
Since Protack double-downed on O’Donnell when he ran against her, I think O’Donnell topping at 21% is extremely luck. Now if Castle dies before then, O’Donnell hits 35%.
No baptist minister from the southeast is winning an effing presidential election.
Twenty one percent sounds about right for the virgin. Let’s hope the GOP keeps running right wing nut cases for higher office. At what point do the spankings become too painful to witness?
If O’Whackjob pulls 30% of the Protack voters and Castle gets 100% of Ting’s plus 70% of Protack’s (fair assumptions I’d say) then the foxy virgin can get up to 30% of the total primary vote.
The question is, just how crazy were the Protack voters? I know some were other wise sane people who (knowing the nominee would lose) though Protack would take a real swing or two at Carper. Nevertheless, the vast majority of Protack voters were coo-coo.
One other variable. If the virgin goes “full on wingnut berserker” then she can maybe pick up a few more percentage points for showing some tea party spirit.
When you are an official of a party, you cannot outright predict that your Presidential candidate will lose in public, but I don’t think this qualified as any of the predictions that you attributed to me. I hinted at a Democrat Tsunami that could take down several races including some I thought would be victorious on their own. Unfortunately my worse case scenario came about. http://www.delawarepolitics.net/markell-taking-an-interesting-approach/
Reading between the lines I was not predicting a victory for McCain, Lee, Copeland, Brady and was looking at the painful possibility of a Democrat Tsunami that I did not want to accept. It was far from the O’Donnell will win and McCain will win scenario. I did not even venture those as races to watch especially if Virginia and North Carolina did not go for McCain early. Was I right in those trends?
I searched the archives the post predicting a McCain comeback belonged to my friend John Feroce. I think he was putting on a brave face as he used the language of needing a “comeback”. I tried to be supportive but concluded my comment with….
I just can not find the post or even the comment where “right up to the end I was predicting a McCain victory”. You must have me mixed up with someone else.
You had much to say re: predictions and a quick look starts with stuff like this and more waxing rhapsodic about how it is all coming home for McCain. So no credit for hiding your “predictions” if that is what you did and no credit for the revisionist history.
I would also point out that McCain soon afterward took a lead in the polls which he did not lose until the meltdown on Wall Street and his erratic suspension of his campaign. Even Sarah couldn’t save him from that.
Which doesn’t have much to do with your largely wrong prognostications.