O’Donnell & Korn’s Electoral Math
What do Korn and O’Whackjob have in common? They both intrigued Tobin enough to put up a post.
He looks at CO’D numbers and finds that she needs to warm up the moderates, or…
A more daring strategy with more risk might be to not try to expand the coalition as much as energize her base and try to get every possible general election voter that agrees with the values she espoused to win the primary. This strategy assumes a low turnout among the Democrats or a perception that there is a largely untapped number of non-Republican Tea Party adherents who have just been waiting for the primary to be over so they could participate.
Stay pure or try to win? I predict she backs off the crazy and appeals to the REST of the Republican party. That is the path of least resistance. We already know that Republicans are, by nature, obedient children. They want to come home.
As for Korn, did you know that people don’t vote in the auditor race? You would if you read Tobin. He finds that a statistically significant number of voters that make it into the voting booth, don’t vote for auditor. Odd that.
Here is a spoiler, but click through for the actual numbers.
We know for sure that the 1,985 voters who did not vote in Tuesday’s primary for Auditor were all Democrats who had taken the time to go vote.
Getting 2,000 people to not dropoff will not be THE deciding factor unless the winning margin is razor thin, but if the general election is even somewhat close convincing the primary voters to vote again in November and complete the ballot could make an impact on the outcome.
O’donnell might try to pick up the moderates – but kinda hard of she is in jail
what is even worse is if she is elected – she wil be seated immiediately – then arrrested – then what??
we will have no representation in the senate – of course if she wins we won;t either..
please see the below piece:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/18/odonnell.ethics/index.html?hpt=T2
I happened to be watch AC360 the other night we this come up. What are the penalties for something like this? There sure is a lot evidence against her on this. Apparently she submitted receipts the FEC.
If narcissistic personality disorder is wrong, ODonnell doesn’t want to be right.
O’Donnell is a useful idiot who was used to dump the GOP leadership. She will not win.
I want to be John Tobin in my next life! I’d like to regurgitate some election numbers and then pontificate grandly based on nothing more than the santorum oozing out of my ass.
His O’Donnell “analysis” simply says that she needs to capture the mainstream GOPers who voted for Castle. Well, no shit, Sherlock!
His Korn “analysis” hints at, but misses, the point that the Flowers team was incredibly well-organized across the state. Its voters came out to vote for Flowers. Neither Korn nor Matlusky generated anything similar to that level of enthusiasm. Which everyone who paid attention to the races already knew.
This guy is a tool who presents the most banal observations as deep political insight. I don’t know why you bother listening to him.
Today’s fun DL game: Which of the Teabag aliases is Protack?
I want to be John Tobin in my next life. To be considered a political expert by regurgitating election results and pontificating deep thoughts based solely on the patterns made by the santorum oozing out of my ass? What a great gig!
His insight on O’Donnell boils down to the fact that she needs to pull in Castle voters to win. Well, as my kids would say, no duh!
And his “analysis” of the Auditor vote concludes that some people came out to vote for Flowers, but no one else. That’s more an indication of the depth and organization of the Flowers team, isn’t it? Everyone knew that Matlusky and Korn are second-rate candidates who waged lackluster primary campaigns.
I don’t understand why you people here at DL continue to eat Tobin’s crap up. His observations are the most banal shit out there, and he has no idea what’s happening outside New Castle County. What a joke.