How Tonight Plays Out in the House

I will only be talking about the competitive races according to Nate Silver.

6 p.m.—INDIANA and KENTUCKY
The GOP will pick up at least one seat in these two states: the Indiana 8th, where Brad Ellsworth is retiring to run a hopeless campaign for the Senate. The Democrats will keep the Kentucky 3rd, as it is a safe seat.

A note on my methodology, any race within 4 points is a tossup. Either party can win those races depending on turnout or polling errors. The tossup districts are as follows: IN-9, IN-2, and KY-6.

My prediction: The GOP will pick up the IND-8 and IND-9. The Democrats will retain KY-3, IN-2, KY-6

Republican Net Pickup: +2.

7 p.m.–GEORGIA, FLORIDA, S. CAROLINA, VIRGINIA
The Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats this hour. The FL-2, FL-24, FL-8, GA-8, VA-2, VA-5 and SC-5.
The following Democratic seats are safe: GA-12, VA-9, VA-11.
Tossups: FL-22, GA-2

The GOP will only get those 7 pickups, and the Democrats will pick up a seat of their own from the Republicans, the FL-25 and win the toss ups.

Republican Net Pickup: +6.
Total Net GOP Pickup for the night so far: +8

7:30 p.m.–NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA

Safe for Dems: NC-11, OH-13
Tossups: NC-8, NC-7, NC-2, OH-6, OH-18, WV-1
Republican Pickups: OH-16, OH-15, OH-1

I think the Dems keep all the toss ups.

Republican Pickup: +3
Total Net GOP Pickup for the night so far: +11.

8 p.m.–THE HOUR THE HOUSE IS WON OR LOST

Safe for Dems: CT-4, CT-5, IL-8, MA-4, MI-15, MI-9, PA-4, PA-12, PA-17, TX-27
Tossups: AL-2, PA-8, PA-11, IL-14, IL-17, MA-10, MI-7, MO-4, MS-4, NJ-3, NH-2, TX-23, SD
Republican Pickups: PA-3, PA-10, PA-7, IL-11, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17
Democratic Pickups: DE-AL, IL-10

Out of the toss ups, I think the GOP will pick up AL-2, MS-4, and SD

Republican Pickup: +15.
Total Net GOP Pickups for the night so far: +24

8:30 p.m.–ARKANSAS
The Dems will keep AR-4, but the GOP will pick up AR-1 and AR-2

Republican Pickup: +2.
Total Net GOP Pickups for the night so far: +26

9:00 p.m.–NEW YORK, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, WISCONSIN, LOUISIANA, KANSAS

Safe for Dems: CO-7, NM-3, NM-1, NY-1, NY-13, NY-22, NY-25, WI-3
Tossups: CO-3, NY-19, NY-24, NY-23
Republican Pickups: KS-3, LA-3, CO-4, NY-20, NY-29, WI-8, WI-7, NM-2,
Democratic Pickup: LA-2

Out of the tossups, I think the GOP wins the CO-3 and the NY-23. The Dems keep the rest.

Republican Pickup: +10.
Total Net GOP Pickups for the night so far: +35

:10 p.m.–ARIZONA, IOWA, UTAH, IDAHO, NORTH DAKOTA, NEVADA

Safe Dems: AZ-7, AZ-8, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, ID-1, UT-2
Tossups: AZ-5
Republican Pickup: AZ-1, ND, NV-3

Arizona is bad for Dems this year, and I think the GOP gets the toss up race here.

Republican Pickup: +4.
Total Net GOP Pickups for the night so far: +40

11:00 p.m. and then 12:00 a.m.–CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON, ALASKA and HAWAII

Safe for Dems: CA-47, WA-2
Tossups: CA-11, CA-20, OR-5
Republican Pickups: WA-3, 47-53
Democratic Pickups: HI-1

The Dems will keep their West Coast toss-ups.

Republican Pickup: +2.
Total Net GOP Pickups for the night so far: +41

So all in all, the GOP will pick up 41 seats. Add that to the 179 seats that they will hold, that means they will now have 220 members. The Democrats will have 215 members.