Fox News Poll: Obama Leads all opponents by large margins.
A FOX News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) this week of 911 registered voters (911 voters? really Fox? what a coincidence) finds President Obama in a very good position for reelection at this early point.
He leads Romney 48%-41%. He leads Huckabee 49% to 41%. He leads Palin 56% to 35% and Gingrich 55% to 35%. Palin and Gingrich would give Obama a 40+ state landslide, given recent statewide polls shows Obama beating Palin in such ultra liberal places like Alabama, Texas, Wyoming and Tennessee. Oh, even though Jeb Bush says he will not run, Fox polled his name anyway, and Obama destroys him 54% to 34%. Jeb Bush polls less than Sarah Palin. Amazing. That is how toxic Bush’s name still is. Yeah, America does not miss ya, W.
The Republican Party typically gives its presidential nominations to the candidate whose “turn” it seems to be. In 2012, you can argue that four candidates are due their turn. Sarah Palin, because she was the Vice Presidential candidate in 2008. Mitt Romney, because he was a runner-up in 2008 to McCain and is clearly the establishment choice. Mike Huckabee, because he too was a runner up in 2008 to McCain. And Newt Gingrich, because he is a former Speaker and 2012 is probably his last chance at national office.
From these poll results, no candidate can be said to offer the better chance to beat Obama. Sure, Huckabee and Romney poll over 40%, but they both still trail the President by 8 and 7 points, respectively. And you can forget Romney’s viability as a candidate altogether. There is no way on Earth the Republican base is going to nominate him after RomneyCare. No way. Meanwhile, Huckabee is not trusted by the business wing of the party. Nor am I convinced he is going to run at all.
If I were a betting man, I would bet that either Gingrich or Palin will be the nominee. For this simple reason, their running and losing gives them their “turn” and the GOP can move on. And I favor Gingrich over Palin very narrowly at this moment because he seems likely to merge the batshit crazy wing with the business wing. Nobody in the GOP hates Newt.
So perhaps he gets the honor of being the GOP’s George McGovern/Walter Mondale.
what if Romney “admits” his helth care plan was a mistake and sells himself as “the only one who can undo Obama’s mistake” since he made the same one….. just in a dirty liberal state who’s residents are probably gay anyway. The republican party is always willing to forgive their own … all they have to do is have a “re-birth” moment and all is well.
So, Obama has absolutely no reason to throw any legislative bones to progressives; he’s fine where he is. Which means – if he goes any further right on taxes, regulations, or whatever – it won’t be because he needs to compromise. It will be because he just wants to go further right.
Obama still has his ominous statements about “tax reform” to deal with. Any more concessions to the rich or the corporations will risk chipping away at support from the left. And when I say “left” I don’t mean fringe; I mean – Obama2008.
Remember 9% of people who disapprove of HCR think it is not liberal enough. I suspect the same thing is true of the 60% who disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.
They didn’t poll Gary Johnson.
Gary Johnson is already hated by the teabagging base for daring to suggest that we should legalize marijuana. He has absolutely no chance to win the nomination. He should run as a Libertarian.
I’m waiting to see the debate between Multiple Choice Mitt, She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named and Donald Trump.
If Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Sarah Palin, and Michele Bachman all run, the GOP primary would be become a reality t.v show. They just would suck all the media oxygen, but none of the votes (except for Palin). And they will look ridiculous and turn the debates into anything but an actual debate: a discussion of policy or credentials. Whoever wins, not the four mentioned above, would suffer from this credibility stemming from the GOP’s Jersey Shore primary.
Last year, the GOP didn’t have anybody exciting like Hillary or Obama, but at least they had credentials (senators who served for more than 10 years and two term governors) and discussed policy.
Obama’s re-elect number is below 50% against both Romney and Huckabee. That is a sign of vulnerability, albeit very early vulnerability against one person who may not even run and another who will have a difficult time winning the nomination. At this point the Republican’s best bet may be Pawlenty. He can pose as moderate, sane, and competent governor. Romney comes with a ton of baggage based on his shameless flip-flopping and, sadly, his religion would cost him a few points as well. Huckabee is charismatic but it remains to be seen whether he is capable of broad national appeal and, as noted earlier, he may not even run. Palin is a joke and Gingrich toxic.
In the end, though, Obama’s success or failure, assuming the Republicans field a serious candidate, will be tied to the unemployment rate. He probably needs to see it reduced to near 7% to comfortably win a second term.
Right now I’d put the odds of the Republicans fielding a serious candidate at greater than 200 to 1. That does not mean Obama has nothing to fear from the GOP’s large field of clown candidates.
Obama is as big a flip-flopper as Romney and has the video to prove it. Obama vs. Romney is probably the only contest in which Romney’s flip-flops would be neutralized as a liability.
I would like to see a pole with Obama against Donald Trump. Trump will crush him.
Most definitely. Trump is has like a bazillion dollars, so that means he is super smart. Plus he is a white and Obama is from Kenyan. On paper, Trump crushes Obama. I hope Trump runs for the nomination and gets the chance to crush Obama.
And BTW genius, you meant poll…not pole.
Donald Trump will have to produce a birth certificate for that comb-over, though.
Be fair Jason. Poles can be quite heavy.
I’d like to see a pole (or even a Pole for that matter) crushing Donald Trump.