Celia Cohen Predicts Dem Leg Hall Landslide

Filed in National by on June 16, 2008

You have to be a certified Cohenologist like myself to read between the lines – but long time Cohen watchers know a list of Ceci predictions when they read one.

Delaware Senate: Dems +3 Hall-Long(10th), Bushweller (17th), Stafford (16th)

Delaware House: Dems +9 Seats!! Johnson (8th), Walker (9th), Williams (10th) Barbieri (18th), Jaques (27th), Pardee (29th), Scott (31st), Bennett (32nd), Atkins (41st)

So that is a net gain in the house of 8 because I don’t consider John Atkins a Dem.

Also – If I lived in the 4th I’d vote for Tyler Nixon.

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Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

Comments (46)

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  1. liberalgeek says:

    I gotta remember to call the Republicans in the 41st to get down there for a lit drop or something. Hastings is a pretty good guy, for a Republican. Atkins is a pretty bad guy, period.

    Wait until voters get a load of JA’s “IRPP doesn’t cause any health issues” crap. If he didn’t have Gaffney, he would have nothing.

    I want him out of my party and out of the legislature.

  2. Al Mascitti says:

    Jason, I think your list is a bit too long. The 9th, 10th and 29th will be tough because, despite shrinking registration gaps, the incumbents haven’t antagonized their constituents the way Wagner (and to a lesser extent Stone) have. Also, Atkins is no shoo-in, unless the slack-jawed are even dumber than I think.

  3. jason330 says:

    I think the 9th and 18th have the biggest question marks over them. The over/under for net Dem gains in the house is 6

    As for Atkins – I fear the voters in the 41st are far more stupid than we can imagine.

    BTW – did you notice how Celia had to play catch-up after my post on this topic?

    Just sayin’

  4. RSmitty says:

    I think the 9th and 18th have the biggest question marks over them.

    J…taking his medicine like a good boy! Just wait until it takes affect and you really see the light.

  5. TommyWonk says:

    The 4th District, where I live, already has a great Rep in Gerald Brady, who has done a terrific job in his first term. He voted for HCR 38, which would in itself be enough to win my support this year.

    Anyone who has seen a display of his prodigious talent for remembering detail of the lives of his constituents will agree that Gerald may be the best retail politician in Delaware. I predict that he will win big over Tyler Nixon or anyone else foolhardy enough to challenge him.

  6. jason330 says:

    Thanks Tom. That is valuable input from someone in the district.

  7. Nancy Willing says:

    I want Tyler Nixon in the Assembly, Tom. Brady is such an insider that even if he went with the wind farm resolution and helps constituents, has he brought legislation to the table?
    Tyler will hit the ground running and get right to work as an idea man much like John Kowalko.
    I have no doubt that Tyler Nixon is the superior candidate.

  8. Tyler Nixon says:

    Thanks for the plug, Jason and Nancy!

    I don’t know about foolhardy, but if I choose to run it will be to give the electorate a real choice between some very forward-looking ideas/reforms over typical insider City Democratic politics-as-usual.

    Gerry Brady is a nice enough guy and certainly a good politician. But to me being a legislator should be about a lot more than just voting where the wind eventually blows.

    If you want someone who will challenge the status quo in Dover, hold Wilmington government ACCOUNTABLE (rather than do its dirty work), and be aggressive about all renewable energy in Delaware, not just an occasional last-minute yes vote or (worse) exploiting it for complex schemes, I would definitely deliver.

  9. Sagacious Steve says:

    Labelling someone an insider doesn’t make them one. Gerald Brady had to overcome the ‘inside’ game of Loretta Walsh, her alleged son, and the construction trades, to win the nomination.

    As far as being an ‘idea’ man, tomorrow Rep. Brady’s legislation making coverage for hearing aids available to all Delawareans 22 and under will be signed into law. For 25 years, advocates for the hearing-impaired were seeking this. Brady got it done. so, yes, he HAS brought legislation to the table…and got it passed.

    Oh, and Rep. Brady sponsored a green energy workshop at the Delaware Center for Horticulture recently. Were you there, Tyler?

    While Tyler Nixon might make a good legislator, he’s running against the wrong guy.

  10. Tyler Nixon says:

    Just as an afterthought for TommyWonk…didn’t you support Harris McDowell’s re-election two years ago and prior?

    Steve – for the past 6+ years my whole life has been a running green energy workshop with anyone/everyone I talk to. Gerry Brady’s occasional fluff like that does not make up for his lack of leadership on the issue. Do you really think that Gerry Brady is going to want to debate me on who has done more to advance the cause of clean, renewable energy in Delaware?

    It should also be noted I have no special interests to serve. I run my own law firm and politically I answer only to my conscience.

    At least there are some liberals here who can look past party and personal affiliations.

  11. Sagacious Steve says:

    Dismissing green energy workshops as ‘fluff’ is not an answer, but avoidance of the point.

    And, I might point out, while green energy is a very important issue, it is not the ONLY issue facing legislators. Plus, legislators need to address and respond to constituent concerns, an area where Rep. Brady is very strong.

    Legislators need to be more than ‘one-trick ponies’, regardless of their party and political affiliations. Brady is. Is Tyler?

  12. Tyler Nixon says:

    We’ll just agree to disagree, Steve. Maybe if Brady ever publicly comments on or advocates or proposes or legislates anything of substance or import (hearing aids notwithstanding) we’ll know what type of “pony” he actually is. The AFL-CIO and the Baker Administration are certainly glad to have their horse in the 4th…for now.

    I’ll defer to others who are aware of the full range of issues and ideas I have put forth, without motive of protecting my job or pandering to maintain my incumbency.

  13. Yeah,

    I’ve had run-ins with Brady and he has come off as aloof big time. No matter how good Brady is in Leg. Hall, I know Tyler will do 1,000 times better. Delaware desperately needs someone like him in Leg. Hall. Besides, the last thing we need is the House to go Democrat and then have them running the whole damn state.

    Steve,

    Re: hearing aids. That’s what I call a “novelty bill.” It’s great and all and it certainly helps those for whom it’s intended, but it does nothing for the overall progression of our state.

    Legislators need to be more than ‘one-trick ponies’, regardless of their party and political affiliations. Brady is. Is Tyler?

    I’d say Tyler’s about a dozen-or-two trick pony. With all the tricks and goodies up his sleeve, it’s a wonder David Copperfield’s still in business. I know the first six months he’s in office, Tyler would have a whole slew of things ready to go. The GA needs him…bad.

  14. jason330 says:

    Funny how a thread takes on a life of it’s own.

  15. TommyWonk says:

    One advantage to blogging is that it’s all out there in the public record for Tyler Nixon or anyone else to review, which you might consider doing before asking whether I supported so-and-so in 2006. So for the record, you will not find even a hint that I supported Harris McDowell in 2006.

    As for whether Gerald Brady does the bidding of Mayor Baker, you will find his name as a sponsor on SB 245, the eminent domain bill.

    As the saying goes, you can look it up.

  16. Tyler Nixon says:

    You didn’t answer the question, Tommy. Did you support McDowell or not? Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

    Ah yes, Brady was so vocal and active opposing his old buddy’s eminent domain scheme. Following the herd on a popular piece of legislation after everyone else did the heavy lifting….reminds me of Brady on wind power.

    Here is another piece of legislation Brady sponsored :

    http://legis.delaware.gov/LIS/LIS144.NSF/vwLegislation/HB+161?Opendocument

    Of course, you won’t find his name on it any more. That’s what makes him such a great politician.

    But it is a great thing about the blgging. His role is documented.

  17. TommyWonk says:

    “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” Very lawyerly.

    No, I did not support Harris McDowell.

    As for challenging Gerald Brady, knock yourself out.

  18. RSmitty says:

    Funny how a thread takes on a life of it’s own.

    Like this one???
    😛

  19. Tyler Nixon says:

    I assume you live in McDowell’s district. Pretty much all of the 4th RD within City limits is 1st SD, but correct me if I am wrong and McDowell isn’t your Senator.

    If so, that leaves two options then, TommyWonk….Greg Chambers or me.

    Which one of us did you support with your vote?

    (Or is who you vote for secret sacred ground?)

    Thanks for the encouragement, btw.

  20. Tyler Nixon says:

    I normally don’t use this but : LOL, Smitty.

    I just noticed how far out of control that post has gotten. I mean, 286 comments?? That’s got to be a record for the DE blogosphere.

  21. Rebecca says:

    I don’t know how much weight it carries around here, but Gerald Brady was a big help on the Dean campaign. That’s hardly old-school Dems.

  22. El Somnambulo says:

    A little birdie just told the Beast Who Slumbers that the first R retirement will be announced this afternoon. Rep. Ben Ewing from Bridgeville, for health reasons.

  23. selander says:

    Word of advice to any candidates out there.

    Tommywonk is one of the most respected voices in the blogosphere and one of the more respected progressive activists in the state.

    Better to say – “Tom, I am going to win you over” than try and challenge him on who he did or (in this case clearly) did not support a few years ago.

  24. Tyler Nixon says:

    Thanks for the advice, Brian. I have been around the blogosphere plenty long enough to know who’s who and who’s what. Tom knows where I am coming from, and now I know where he’s coming from.

    Whether or not he voted for Harris McDowell is certainly relevant, if Tom is going to pass judgment about who should represent our district in Dover, progressive and wind power politics aside.

    I respect Tom’s reporting over the last year on the wind power issue. It doesn’t mean I am not going to challenge him about Gerry Brady, especially as it concerns energy issues.

  25. Dominique says:

    Tyler –

    FWIW, I would vote for you if I lived in the 4th. I’ve heard a lot of good things about Brady, but I like your passion and your drive.

    Granted, I don’t know a lot about local politics, but it seems like a lot of the problems stem from the fact that most of our representatives have been there for too long. It’s almost like they’re supreme court judges with lifetime positions. Their re-election is pretty much in the bag regardless of how they vote or whether they write good legislation (or any, for that matter). Perhaps some new blood will breathe a little life into our government.

    In a state as small as Delaware, people are even more inclined to vote from incumbents because they’re so familiar with the names and, often times, the candidates. I’ve voted for Carper over and over again without really knowing his voting record because I knew his name. Same with Castle. I’m not proud to admit that, but it’s true.

  26. Dana Garrett says:

    Allow me to be the “bad guy” and say I think Atkins will win and probably should. I’ve talked to people in his district, both parties, who claim he is too aloof and uninvolved in the district. That was never a claim made about Atkins.

    Also, Atkins is now on the correct side of the manufactured home owners issue and I think they will turn out big for him. That’s an important group to me.

    I also believe Atkins has turned himself around. The evidence is abundant in my view. I believe in 2nd chances.

  27. Dana Garrett says:

    Also, I would vote for Tyler. I like Brady. If it weren’t for Tyler possibly being in the race, I’d vote for him probably.

    The difference is this: Brady is a good legislator; he has real compassion. Tyler has the compassion, but he would make a GREAT legislator. He would also act independently. We know that about, Tyler, because he has done so for years. Also, I say w/ no exaggeration, I believe Tyler is one of the smartest and most articulate people walking on the planet. And I know real intelligence when I see it. I’ve had the privilege to befriend some highly intelligent people even some notable ones. Tyler’s the real deal.

    I don’t live in the district, but I plan to vote for Tyler if he runs anyhow. 🙂

  28. El Somnambulo says:

    Once again, El Somnambulo proves he hasn’t lost his mojo:

    http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/NEWS/80617062&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

    Ewing has retired.

    This sets up another pickup opportunity for Los Democratos should Sussex County Councilman Finley Jones run in this slightly-D-Leaning district.

  29. jason330 says:

    You are the man.

  30. jason330 says:

    ….of course more than 2 hours head’s up would be nice.

    Just sayin’

  31. liz allen says:

    Dana: Atkins is playing us for a sucker! To say that he is on the side of the manufactured home owners is a big LAFF….that schuck is best friends with Tunnel, even owned a business with him! Tunnel kept helping him get elected. The only reason “Atkins would claim to be on the side of the homeowners is because he is an opportunist of the worst magnitude, and see’s an opportunity to “latch on to the issue to get elected”. Don’t think for one minute the voters will be bamboozled by that jerk….in no way should he ever been near legislative hall, except to visit.

    We need real leaders in Sussex county who are not in the pockets of the developers, Park owners, and big farmers….Atkins will take their money, pretend to be fighting for the little guy while he stabs them in the back…don’t be naive about that opportunist. He wants revenge for being tossed, and will do and say anything to get back….only a couple of years more to collect that pension.

    He never wrote any legislation, got nothing passed, cuz why…he is stupidDDDDDD!

  32. liz allen says:

    Hey Tyler….don’t forget Charles Potter Jr, is still looking to run against McDowell…and he not only supports wind , but single payer healthcare, cleaning up the environment, and many other good government issues…dont count him out…greg chambers???? give me a break…

  33. Sagacious Steve says:

    FWIW, I now reluctantly agree w/Dana that Atkins will reclaim his seat in the General Assembly. However, I don’t think for a minute that he has had any kind of epiphany. People who behave in such an outsized manner tend to always be at least a little outsized.

    The reasons I think Atkins will be back are twofold:

    1. A lot of people in his ‘Deliverance’-style district think he’s paid his dues and are willing to look at him in a more favorable light.

    2. Despite recent in-house attempts to pump him up, Hastings has proven to be a major disappointment to the R’s, someone who has shrunk from the public spotlight since getting elected.

    If any good comes out of this, it is that I don’t think that the D’s will need Atkins to get to 21.
    While I’m gonna wait awhile to give my evaluation of the races, I think the Ds will be at 23-24 w/o Atkins. And that doesn’t include retirements we’ve yet to see, but that are at least possible (Valihura? Oberle?) .

  34. jason330 says:

    Spence is on retirment watch as well.

  35. Spence should have switched to D for his own self-preservation.

  36. liz allen says:

    Spence is a good and decent man…he should go independent and fight on behalf of all Delaware…give up the two party corporate system.

    and Tyler you know I want you to run against the Faker Baker. The City of Wilmington needs you. You have a track record for “helping the people” wronged so many times by the Faker Baker administration. Its too bad the Republican Party doesnt throw a bunch of bucks your way to run for Mayor!

    With a few bucks, and your reputation as a “good guy” you would have a real chance of winning.

  37. anon. says:

    liz, you dumbass, atkins and tunnel had a big PUBLIC falling out. it’s been all over the local papers. wake up or shut up!

  38. anon. says:

    and another thing liz, Hastings is a developer!i’ve attended alot of County Council meetings here in Georgetown and Hastings just applied for a sub division. JUST WHAT WE NEED ANOTHER ELECTED OFFICIAL FEATHERING HIS OWN NEST.

  39. Dana Garrett says:

    I hope Valihura doesn’t retire. I want to see him beaten.

  40. Al Mascitti says:

    Dana: “I also believe Atkins has turned himself around. The evidence is abundant in my view. I believe in 2nd chances.”

    For crying out loud, Dana. He changes on one issue and you want to embrace him. If you didn’t know him from Adam and saw his positions on issues, you wouldn’t want anything to do with him. He is the furthest thing from a progressive out there. Stop being contrary for its own sake and put your normally formidable research skills to work.

  41. liberalgeek says:

    Atkins has not changed his ways. He has spent the last year and a half spreading rumors, commenting about himself favorably (hi John!) on blogs, and trying to paint his accusers as worse than him. Add to it that I have a sneaking suspicion that he and Protack have a back-office deal to trash Bill Lee in borderline illegal ways.

    The best part of this thread, for me is Dana’s glowing praise for him. It harkens back to the “My Friend Dave Burris” post in January. Watch out John, that means that you are one false move from complete evisceration.

  42. El Somnambulo says:

    Trust El Somnambulo. Even with radical surgery, an Alpha Lobo remains an Alpha Lobo. Atkins, like Bill Clinton, is an Alpha Lobo. And no one has told the Beast Who Slumbers that Atkins has been snipped.

  43. Al Mascitti says:

    Oh Sleeper Who Walks: Please don’t use fancy terms like “alpha.” Atkins won’t understand them.

  44. RSmitty says:

    Lobo is one letter away from Loco!!!!

  45. RickJ19958 says:

    Sheriff Lobo? What a great TV show…

    Hey, that trucker’s got a monkey!

  46. barbara lifflaznder says:

    A leopard doesn’t change his stripes or spots.
    This is uncontestable and i can prove it from experience. He hasb’r suddently found”God”, RE-ELECT him as a DEM and you will find out soone rthan later how true this axiom is. BBL