The 62 District Strategy, Part II
We need a 2 seat gain in the House to win back the majority. With the stakes so high, you hate to see us Democrats failing to contest various districts, thus giving a free pass to the election of a Republican. Why do we hate to see that? Because it allows the GOP to save all their money and volunteers and campaign staff and pour them into the competitive House races, and thus effectively defend their bare majority. If we contest them everywhere, they have less resources to fight us off.
As of this writing, it appears we will not challenge 11! Republicans this year. This is up from 8 Republicans that we failed to challenge in 2006. The unopposed so far are:
Gregory Lavelle (11th)
Deborah Hudson (12th)
Nick Manolakos (20th)
Pamela Maier (21st)
Joe Miro (22nd)
William Oberle, Jr. (24th)
William Outten (30th)
Don Blakely (34th)
George Carey (36th)
Gerald W. Hocker (38th)
Clifford G. Lee (40th)
There is still time to get candidates to run them. The filing deadline is July 25, 2008. But the truth of the matter is this: if we don’t candidates ready and waiting to run against these incumbents, then it is unlikely an unknown and un-financed late filer is going to be able to knock off an well known well financed incumbent in a high turnout Presidential year. Thus, even if we do get challengers to these 11, we have to consider all of them safe at this point.
The good news is that we have more unopposed, and thus, Democrats this year. They are:
Dennis Williams (1st)
Hazel Plant (2nd)
Helene Keeley (3rd)
Melanie George Marshall (5th)
Diana McWilliams (6th)
Quinn Johnson (8th )
John Mitchell (13th)
Peter Schwartzkopf (14th)
Valerie Longhurst (15th)
James Johnson (16th)
Michael Mulrooney (17th)
Robert F. Gilligan (19th)
Terry Schooley (23rd)
John Viola (26th)
So in terms of competitive advantage, the Republicans have none this cycle, as more of their seats are competitive and possible turnovers:
Competitive Races
The 4th. Gerry Brady defeated Gary Linarducci in an open race in 2006 by 10 points. This year, Gerald Brady is being challenged by my favorite Republican, Tyler Nixon. Indeed, I once attended a fundraiser for Tyler, and even donated money to his campaign for Lt. Governor years ago. Too bad that this district is too Democratic and Brady too liked for this race to really become competitive. But I promise you, Tyler, you will be the only Republican I profile this year.
The 7th. Bryon Short won this seat in a special election to replace Wayne Smith, 53% to 47%. This is a Republican seat that the GOP will want back, and Jim Bowers is back for a rematch. But Brandywine has been trending blue.
The 9th. Majority Leader Cathcart got a real challenge from lawyer/nurse Rebecca Walker in 2006, escaping with the victory 53% to 47%. Walker is back for the rematch, looking to make up 600 votes to oust the Majority Leader.
The 10th. Bob Valihura usually has easy elections. He beat Fran Murphy in 2006, 56% to 43%. But, as with the 7th, Democrats’ registration numbers are increasing, and former Congressional candidate Dennis E. Williams (not the Dennis Williams of the 1st District) is challenging him.
The 18th. Speaker Spence won reelection in 2006 over Michael Barbieri 56% to 44%. That is a close margin when you consider Spence’s lengthy tenure and his position as the state leader of the Republican Party. Barbieri is back, and with this district’s demographics, this will be competitive.
The 25th. In 2006, this was the surprise upset, with John Kowalko defeating Stephanie Ulbrich 52% to 48%. Will the Republicans fight to retake it? So far, no. Nobody has filed yet. I expect that to change.
The 27th. Vince LoFink barely held on in 2006, scraping by Earl Jaques 51% to 49%. So this race was going to be competitive again if the name LoFink did not appear in the news at all in any negative way for the last two years. Unfortunately, it does not help matters when your son tries to defraud your constituents of millions of dollars. The interesting thing is that, Earl Jacques has refilled for the rematch, and so has independent candidate James Spencer. No filings from the senior LoFink though.
The 28th. Bill Carson won the special election over Christine Malec back in December. Carson won handily. Will Malec want a rematch?
The 29th. We did not challenge Pam Thornburg in 2006. But with the demographics trending our way, and with the party enthusiastic, we have Trey Paradee stepping into the fire.
The 31st. Nancy Wagner had a surprisingly close reelection in 2006. And with the district becoming even more Democratic, and with the Wagner family enriching themselves at the public’s expense, this race will be competitive. [Daryl Scott http://www.darrylscott.org/] will be our standard bearer.
The 32nd. Commenter El Somnambulo has it on good authority that Ms. Stone will not be running for reelection. The speculation is that after her tenure as the President of the National Conference of State Legislature this past term, she may want to parlay that into a nice lobbying job payoff. Our challenger is Brad Bennett, the son of the former Representative. This is a Democratic leaning district, and would be a good pickup opportunity.
The 33rd. I say, the Republicans really scored a surprise last election, what with running a long dead Civil War hero and former President as their candidate. It was truly amazing that Robert Walls defeated the long dead Grant, albeit by 1%, 50.6% to 49.4%. This year, the Republicans have former Levy Court member Jack Peterman as their candidate, who lost in the 2006 GOP primary to President Grant.
The 35th. Ben Ewing is retiring, for he has been diagnosed with lung and kidney cancer. Out thoughts are with Mr. Ewing and his family as he fights this disease. Former state police Superintendent Col. L. Aaron Chaffinch, who resigned three years ago amid a flurry of lawsuits against the agency, is running as the Democrat. Republican Sussex County Register of Wills David L. Wilson has been endorsed by Ewing to be his successor. Since some are not happy that yet another former police officer could be headed to Dover, be happy to know that Chaffinch may receive a primary contest, with Sussex County Council President Finley B. Jones considering a run.
The 37th. We didn’t challenge Booth in 2006. But Helen Truitt of Lewes has decided to contest this even split district.
The 39th. Jerry Semper is running against Daniel Short. Short received nearly 69% of the vote in 2006. Will Semper do any better.
The 41st. Ugh. The one seat where I hope a Republican wins. Drunken liar John Atkins, once a Republican, has decided to run as a Democrat. No word if the 41st Committee has found anyone else to run. Maybe I should have my father run. At least he has run for office as a Democrat before, and he lives in the district.
So in terms of the 62 District Strategy in 2008, we failed. But in so failing, we did not screw ourselves, because 1) the Republicans failed more; and 2) more of their seats, including the Speaker’s and the Majority Leader’s, are competitive.
Actually, Rep. Booth has a Democratic opponent, Helen Truitt.
You’re right. And I even included the 37th in my list of competitive races, so that is just a screw up on my part. I have edited the post. There are now just 11 seats unopposed. Still not great.
You know, though, that most of those (I didn’t say “all”) won’t remain unopposed by the deadline. Your side simply filed early, en-masse this year.
Cathcart and Rebecca both ran a good and decent campaign in 2006. Be careful about overplaying the 2006 result, though. It was a tidal-wave year for D’s. Conversely, I don’t expect Rebecca to lose any footing, so I won’t be overplaying any safety, either.
I hope the two of them will repeat their campaign styles of ’06 (especially the result 😀 ). They both did well getting out to the voters with door knocking and community meetings and people were willing to listen…
…well, except for the lady in Brennan Estates who literally warned me that her dogs “will kill you” and she couldn’t guarantee she could keep her door closed. She had no idea why I was there, but regardless…how nice.
Haha. Rebecca is a former co-worker of mine, and she is spectacular. Thus, you will forgive me if I hope for the opposite result this time, just like what happened to Kowalko.
And yes, I do expect some more late filers on both sides. But either way, what I said about late filers still stands, no matter if they are Republican or Democratic: they will be unknown and under financed. One or two may make a competitive race, but usually there is a reason why people have not filed to challenge up until now.
But regardless, of that, I still want all districts contested, because it drains Republican resources, it offers a real choice, and you never know when lightning will strike.
You should want the same thing for your side.
Heh. Well, I want alternative-energy to be mainstream and fossil fuels to bottom out so bad that no company wants to touch them anymore. The only lightning strike to happen with that so far is a flicker (this week). It’s a hopeful flicker, but it hasn’t made contact yet.
What that has to do with this, I have no idea. Wait, yes I do. I was beating a pessimistic drum (it hasn’t happened yet) in an attempt to temper your optimisim. I gotta try something.
Anyway, I’m kind of an independent-R, for lack of a better term. J and Geek can fill you in on that. While I do respect Rebecca (I spoke to her quite often when we crossed paths in 2006 and my wife was her daughter’s teacher at DMA), my support of Cathcart is unwavering. Politically, I identify well with him, which isn’t so much ‘R’ as it is to consider the merit of what’s before him.
No filings from the senior LoFink though.
Hmmm….
Will Malec want a rematch?
No. that was the most one sided beating I’ve ever seen. There was one ED where Malec got one vote.
Peterman’s running in the 33rd? Elaine Benes’ boss, Peterman? Maybe you mean Vandelay?
Thanks for the honorable mention, Jason (delaware dem). Thanks again for your support back when.
Do you remember that early ’04 fundraiser when I got up and spoke and the power to the whole place went dead practically in the middle of my comments promoting renewable energy?
I agree with your premise that all races should be contested, but not for the purpose of draining resources from anyone. I agree with you that choice is good and more choice is even better.
The reality is that our state consists of legislative districts engineered such that predictable party-line voting ensures unassailable and perpetual incumbency for a particular person or a particular party.
Democracy is the casualty of this rigged system of representation. Harris McDowell is the perfect example of how a gerrymandered district, hugely lopsided for one party’s assured victory, gives you unaccountable, almost-rogue incumbents.
Parenthetically, I say this because we are just 2 years away from redistricting. The last round was an utter travesty, that dragged into the 2002 election. The whole process was a party registration game designed to reinforce incumbency through geographic partisan dominance. We should all begin to contemplate how this battle will play out in 2010, and whether our goals should be engineered partisan dominance or a balanced system of representation.
I am fully aware of this handicap in my bid for the House in the 4th. I can only hope to convince some thoughtful Democratic voters that I am a more progressive democrat than my opponent. I can only hope to convince the many independent voters that I am more independent and free-thinking than my opponent.
No matter what, I intend to make the race as substantive and informative to voter choice as humanly possible. I can only hope my opponent offers the same.
One thing I think we can all agree on is that the election process should hold every officeholder accountable by offering every voter an alternative.
I would love it if El Somnambulo’s information were true … and I hope it is, that “Ms. Stone will not be running for reelection. The speculation is that after her tenure as the President of the National Conference of State Legislature this past term, she may want to parlay that into a nice lobbying job payoff”. Because I have heard that same rumor but was not aware of the lobbying job. Does anyone have any more information on this? That would certainly explain why she cancelled her fundraiser party a few weeks ago.
The Beast Who Slumbers has no inside information. It is informed speculation. Anyway, Monday will likely tell the story as retirement announcements are traditionally made on the last night of legislative session.
Look for Spence and Valihura to run for reelection.
But keep an eye out for one possible move that could blow a hole in any remaining hopes the R’s might have to retain control of the House.
El Somnambulo has spoken.
And to his acolyte who failed to raise him with a clumsy attempt at an incantation, the proper chant is:
BOO-lacka-lacka-lacka, BOO-lacka-lacka-lacka.
The Somnambulant One knows that MOST white chicos have problems with that one…
Oh great slumbering deity….
BOO lacka lacka lacka BOO lacka lacka lacka
Am I right on LoFink?
After consulting his 8-ball, El Somnambulo says, “Signs point to ‘No’ “.
Tyler….
Yes, I was there with J. Kennedy, a mutual friend of ours. I thought you handled that power outage well. IIRC, you said, “well, I think God is trying help me prove my point,” or something to that affect. Everyone laughed.
Since I am a partisan Democrat, draining resources with the opposition is one aspect of the strategy, and you will have to forgive me that. For in the end, Democrats represent my beliefs, and the Republicans don’t. Yes, there are exceptions, like McDowell, Lieberman, Zell Miller, and you Tyler. Exceptions that don’t fit the mold. Thus, in those cases, I want to see McDowell outsed and you elected.
I also agree with everything you say on gerrymandering. It is a nationwide problem not unique to Delaware, and I have always believed it is unconstitutional. Districts, where they be federal congressional or state representative, should be geographically consistent, respecting adjacent neighborhoods and communities, rather than partisan registrations.
“No single county or parish can be a part of more than two Congressional Districts. ”
A law like that would cut down on the number of districts that zig/zag acorss 30 counties.
El Somnambulo – yo quiero cerveza y nachos, por favor.
Give a little hint on the possible hole-blowing move (that sounds a tad nasty)…which county does this RD sit? I am asking because my radar has been hyper the last couple of days and I am wondering if we have the same signal.
While El Somnambulo dares not be too specific, lest he be unmasked, he will leave you with these 2 seemingly-cryptic, but in fact, quite germane, clues:
1. Horseshoes
2. Willie Mays
That’ll take a while. At first glance, it doesn’t sync up with my radar, but need to think about it.
BTW, this can possibly help without it masking the old mysterious one…are you talking another stepping-down, aisle-shuffle, primary, or different seat?
I’m persistent, if not annoying. OK fine, both.
Daaannnggg…I do believe I got the hints. That was on the periphery of my radar, not in my sights, tho. Well, it was a matter of time, I guess.
We’ll see if you are correct, ol’ mysterioso, but it really wouldn’t be a stretch if you are.
People have found that it is best not to annoy the Somnambulant One.
While he is no longer active in the Squared Circle, his tag-team partner, the fiercely-loyal and vaguely-androgynous Teletubbymundo, still pulls on his form-fitting tights from time to time.
Do your best not to aggravate lest you be affixed with the most lethal finishing move in all of Lucha Libre, the dreaded “Twinky-Wink”.
Oh Somnambulant Deity, your hints are so wise that a mere mortal like myself cannot hope to possess the intelligence to decipher them.
Lo siento, El Somnambulo. In honor of your mysterious greatness, I dip my chip in fiery salsa. Gracias.
NEWSFLASH, or at least it is to me.
It appears that there will be a RD9 Democratic Primary…
Primary State Representative 09 – David C. Mullen D
Primary State Representative 09 – Rebecca Walker D .
Yeah, I was looking at the filings yesterday and Mr. Mullen had not filed.
Must find out more….
He is not the David Mullen who lives in Townsend.
I called there and asked the woman who answered the phone if this was the David Mullen who was running for office and she said, “No. I don’t think so.” In exactly the “what has he gone an done now?” tone that my wife would use to respond to that question.
Anyway, who ever he is he has very small electronic footprint.
Hey El Somnambulo ,
White chico here. “informed speculation”? What does that mean? What made you speculate that she may retire? Is she afraid she is going to lose againt Brad Bennett? I think that is what it is but I am just speculating…
BOO-lacka-lacka-lacka, BOO-lacka-lacka-lacka!
Horseshoes and Willie Mays can only mean Bill Oberle.
Or Biff Lee
Because Oberle is from the Italian Oberti which is dervided from the German Hubert from St. Hubert, the patron Saint of people who make impossible over the shoulder catches.
It’s the Donviti Code.
I agree with anon in #26…and jason in #28. Jason is very good in name-heritage research, you know.
Lizabeth: El Somnambulo has addressed this before re Rep. Stone.
1. Canceled fundraiser
2. Interest in other opportunities
3. Her haughty sense that she is better than her compatriots
4. Daunting #’s in the District
5. Hasn’t filed
6. Very motivated and focused opponent.
The rest comes from the Somnambulant One’s understanding of psychology, honed from 25 years of using psychology to tell a story to the audiences at the arenas, Parish halls, and Moose lodges that have hosted his matches.
He just doesn’t see this vain vessel willing to be embarrassed in defeat, hence the belief that she’ll walk away.
El Somnambulo:
Okay okay, got it. 🙂
Gracias Senor Somnambulo!
I cant leave without saying this..
BOO-lacka-lacka-lacka, BOO-lacka-lacka-lacka!
La Blanca Chica – Lizabeth
Peterman’s running in the 33rd? Elaine Benes’ boss, Peterman? Maybe you mean Vandelay
Mr Developer’s best friend = Jack Peterman
Again, I go with Oberle. He has a couple of race horses (horeshoes), and his district is 24 (Willie Mays retired jersey number). El Somnambulo, your riddles are to easy for us downstate rednecks.
AHA!
BREAKING NEWS: And give Celia credit for once. She has posted that Rep. Pam Maier is retiring to move to Colorado with her husband for employment reasons. This becomes a distinct pickup opportunity for the D’s.
http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/7-08maier.asp
Good catch, Steve.
I think the Dems have the House totally wrapped up come November.
Does anyone have an inside track on how many seats the Dems will pick up in the fall? If so, which ones do you feel have the best chance?