PPP: Photo Phinish

How Public Policy Polling sees it over the weekend Public Policy Polling (PDF). December 31, 2011-January 1, 2012. Likely Iowa Republican caucus voters. ±2.7%. (Dec 26-27 results.):

Paul: 20 (24)
Romney: 19 (20)
Santorum: 18 (10)
Gingrich: 14 (13)
Perry: 10 (10)
Bachmann: 8 (11)
Huntsman: 4 (4)
Roemer: 2 (2)
Other: 4 (5)

So from this poll, attacks on Paul have caused him to fall back to the pack. The Santorum surge is on, but it has stalled over the weekend. And Gingrich and Romney remain steady and in the frothy mix. If you dig further into the day by day numbers, you see more of a trend line, as PPP tweeted:

“Sat: Romney 21, Paul 19, Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10. Sun: Paul 21, Romney/Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10.”

You’ll see that Santorum remains steady at 18, that Romney is collapsing, that Paul, instead of falling, is rising. The other dynamic at work is whether Perry and Bachmann’s voters jump ship for one of the leading candidates. According to PPP, their second choice is…

Santorum is 2nd choice of Bachmann, Newt, and Perry’s voters. Interesting to see how much ship jumping there is in last 2 days

So in the end, no one knows who is going to win Iowa. It could be Romney, Paul, Santorum or Gingrich. It is wide open with one day to go.