Celia’s Last Post: Legislative Rankings

I am actually going to miss Celia. Hers was not an opinion I often agreed with, but she was a good barometer on the political class’ conventional wisdom. She was a proud adherent to the Delaware Way. I can’t remember how many posts Jason, I, and others have done critiquing her opinions and her reporting. And I guess that is the real reason we will miss Celia: what the hell will we write about now?!? Oh, don’t worry, I am sure Donviti will write about the cherished right to own grenade launchers soon.

But, for the last time, I will critique her last post, which was her rankings of the competitive legislative races this cycle.

4^th SD

Dems: Dee Durham v. Michael Katz

GOP: Richard Abbott v. John Clatworthy v. Michael Fleming

The Republicans will always have Chateau Country. This is one open seat that still has them smiling, even with a scrambled primary. Likely Republican.

Here, Celia is blind to the demographic shifts in this district and recent trends showing Democratic victory here possible. With a candidate like Michael Katz, this race may well be competitive. I would say it leans Republican, but it could be a tossup.

10^th SD

Dem: Bethany Hall-Long

GOP: Andrea Daley v. Jim Weldin

Although the Newark-Middletown seat was Republican, Hall-Long has registration and six years of House experience on her side. Likely Democratic

I think she is right on the money with this one. This will be a Democratic pickup.

17^th SD

Dem: Brian Bushweller

GOP: James Hutchinson

Bushweller, once a Cabinet officer, goes for an open seat he nearly won in ’04. “Hutch” counters with name ID as Dover’s ex-mayor. Tossup.

Demographics point to another Democratic pickup in an open seat.  But I wonder if “Hutch” does have more name ID than a Minner Administration official.  And is being a cabinet officer a negative?  I say this race leans Republican.

7^th RD

Dem: Bryon Short

GOP: Jim Bowers

Democrats snatched this Brandywine Hundred district in an ’07 special election. Both parties desperately need it to form a majority. Leans Democratic.

A rematch. And I agree with Celia’s analysis. This stays in the D column.

8^th RD

Dem: Quinn Johnson

GOP: Martha Sturtevant

Democrats not only have a registration edge, but they got a head start in finding a candidate for the open Middletown-Townsend seat.   Likely Democrat.

This is the seat Bethany Hall-Long is vacating. Quinn does have a headstart and the edge in this race. Leans Democratic.

9^th RD

Dem: Rebecca Walker

GOP: Dick Cathcart

Cathcart, the majority leader, faces a candidate hoping to improve in her second foray for a lower New Castle County seat. Likely Republican

Walker only lost by a few last time.  It will be as competitive this time.   So how can it be “likely Republican?”  I would say it leans Republican, but it has the chance to be a pickup.

18^th RD

Dem: Mike Barbieri

GOP: Terry Spence

Although Spence is the House speaker, this rematch has the Republicans nervous in a 2-1 Democratic district in Stanton-Christiana. Leans Republican.

And I call it a tossup.    Are you noticing a pattern here: I am liberal in my analysis, Celia is conservative.  Was it the same in our politics?  We will never know.

21^st RD

Dem: Pat Creedon

GOP: Michael Ramone

Long a Republican seat, the Pike Creek Valley district is in play due to Rep. Pam Maier’s sudden retirement. Too Early To Call

Again, it is not too early to call. We are not calling the election. We are predicting. And with two relative unknowns just getting into the race after Pam Maier’s sudden retirement two weeks ago, this race, with demographics favoring the Democrats, has to be called a tossup, even though it is a long held Republican seat.

27^th RD

Dem: Earl Jacques

GOP: Vince Lofink

Jacques came close in ’06. If the Bear-Glasgow voters believe the sins of Lofink’s son should be visited on the father, he is endangered. Tossup

With the demographics favoring Democrats, and with the scandal surrounding the Lofink family, I am tempted to rate this one as leaning Democratic, but we have seen Vince Lofink survive before, and he may again. Thus, I agree, it is a tossup.

31^st RD

Dem: Darryl Scott

GOP: Nancy Wagner

Wagner is a fighter, determined to keep her Dover seat despite criticism of her family’s his-and-her jobs on the public payroll. Likely Republican

I agree. While Nancy has had her taste of scandal this term, she will most likely survive. But given the scandal, I would rate it as Leans Republican.

32^nd RD

Dem: Brad Bennett

GOP: Donna Stone

Stone is a national lawmakers’ leader, but Bennett knows politics. Democrats are talking upset in the Dover seat his dad once had. Tossup.

I would have bet good money that Stone was going to retire, for she knew she had a tough race ahead of her. Indeed, she seemed to consider herself too good to be a state Rep. With Bennett’s high name recognition, I say this leans Democratic.

35^th RD

Dem: Aaron Chaffinch

GOP: David Wilson

Name ID is no problem for either Chaffinch, a state police ex-colonel, or Wilson, a county row officer, for a conservative Bridgeville-centered seat. Leans Republican

The only thing keeping me from rating this as leaning Democratic is the conservative nature of the district.  But then again, we have a conservative Democratic former police officer.   This is a tossup, and it could be a pickup.

41^st RD

Dem: Barbara Lifflander

Drunk: John Atkins

GOP: Greg Hastings

It is all about Atkins in south central Sussex and whether voters will give him a new chance in a new party. Tossup

If it is all about Atkins, then why did he not challenge Hastings in his own party’s primary? Seems cowardly to me to be running to another party that doesn’t want him just to avoid Hastings. If Lifflander wins, it is likely Republican. If Atkins wins, then the drunk drivers finally have a voice in the General Assembly.

Well, that’s it.  My last post about Celia Cohen’s rankings.

A tear runs slowly down my face.