Bounce Forming
This is a 3 day tracking poll, which means the days in the poll released today are Monday night, Tuesday night, and last night. Also keep in mind that this poll today, showing Obama gaining a net 5 points on McCain, includes Monday’s polling sample that gave McCain a two point lead. Thus, once that day drops out tomorrow, and Thursday and Friday’s samples are included, the bounce could be even higher.
Convention bounces are going to be interesting to watch this year because of the condensed nature of the schedule. Never before has both conventions been back to back. Indeed, normally the conventions are a month a part, with the challenger’s convention in July and the incumbent in August.
The bounce will fade with McCain’s VP announcement and return to where it was before after the Republican convention.
America will see the better of the two conventions next week….
well of course theres a slight bounce. ALL of the coverage the past few days has been on the DEMOCRATIC convention..
I thought we were supposed to ignore tracking polls, because young voters with cell phones are undersampled?
…with ongoing conservative commentary overlayed.
We know that McCain has said that if Obama does not get a 15 point bounce that the convention is a failure, but consider the source.
Kavips,
I’m not sure I’m reading you right. You think the RNCC will be better?
You heard me this AM on Mascitti GREX?
G Rex, yes, cell phones are not sampled at all. I am a wireless person, as I do not have a landline. So if a landline poll is showing a bounce, in reality, it is a much bigger bounce.
this is proof that no one, except the poli-geeks, watches the pundit wankery. They are trying sooooo hard to keep this race close.
Same here, DD – LAN-less.
As are about 75% of my friends.
Bill Schneider, the other day, said that they know about the “unreachables” and try to include that in polling analysis.
Funny thing about that though is he admitted that they do not have a true understanding of the Mobile-only crowd’s impact to the sampling.
They’re guessing, but won’t admit it.
But Kavips… what will the Republican Convention be like? All anti – Obama? All “be afraid, be very afraid”? All “the surge is working”? Because it sure won’t be on issues like the economy, middle class tax relief, or healthcare.
I think th RNC is foregoing speakers and just gonna play horror flicks.
Jason, I did hear you on with Mascitti, but I think I originally heard this talking point from Bob Baechle a week ago. (Or however you spell his name.) There’s probably a particle of truth to this, but only if you assume young GOPers are more low tech than young Dems, and that’s just conceit.
You don’t think the GOP will cancel out that bounce with their convention next week? The only hope to cancel out their bounce is if that Tropical Storm Gustav turns into a hurricane and hits New Orleans as projected on Tuesday. Then the GOP is fucked.
…and then Jason and the Geek can say God hates Republicans.
“There’s probably a particle of truth to this, but only if you assume young GOPers are more low tech than young Dems, and that’s just conceit.”
Wait…there are young GOPers? What the fuck are they smoking, and where can I get some?
“Wait…there are young GOPers? What the fuck are they smoking, and where can I get some?”
Ironically the very GOP they support is anti legalization of drugs. Hell, plenty of them are anti-alcohol and anti-sex as well. Where’s the fun in that?
“Then the GOP is fucked.”
Not to mention, you know, the actual people of New Orleans might unfortunately suffer a bit. It must be comforting for them, however, to have a real Governor this time.
Was the previous one a Cylon?
At leasts this time they’ve got a governor who won’t be enthusiastic about disarming everyone in the state.
Nope but he won’t be too enthusiastic about government helping to rebuild like I don’t know KATRINA. It would be almost poetic to have a hurricane in New Orleans at the same time as Katrina while John McCain and George Bush huddle in Minnesota bashing Obama while not stating anything about helping people recover.
mike w., it took you three whole posts to connect this thread to guns. Dude, you’re slacking!
It is really amazing, isn’t it?
Phantom and others – Does anyone else think that maybe we shouldn’t rebuild? New Orleans is a city BELOW SEA LEVEL in an area known for hurricanes. If you’re going to live there you know that’s a risk.
If they want to rebuild then fine, but it should be a state issue and not a federal one.
No, I don’t for a few reasons.
1) Losing New Orleans would devastate Louisiana. We might as well split the state between TX and MS.
2) It is the cultural center for the South and for the Black, Cajun, and Creole peoples.
3) If the Dutch can protect Amsterdam, hell – their entire country, why can’t we do the same for New Orleans? BTW – The North Sea gets hurricane-like storms that come from the Artic.
4) Abandoning New Orleans does not fit into the American Way. We just don’t give up because it’s hard.
Back to comment #4.
I have seen the venue, and as well as the plans for the “performances”.
The answer to your question, with the qualifier “on television”, is yes.
Despite their having no “Tommywonk”
I agree with Kavips.
The Authoritarians demand that everyone to fall in line. The Rethug convention will look like Pyongyang on May Day.
The Rethug convention will look like Pyongyang on May Day.
Great stuff.
A bold prediction:
If the post-convention bump is big, the RNC will say it should have been bigger, so Obama’s message is not being taken seriously by America.
If the post-convention bump is small, the RNC will say that Obama’s message is not being taken seriously by America.
My guess is that both press releases have already been written.
Nemski – That sounds like normal political spin to me. Don’t even begin to think that only Republicans spin things as positives whenever possible.
Pyongyang on May Day? Meanwhile, Barry is reprising the Nuremberg rally at Invesco Field, complete with sets designed by Albert Speer.
WE HAVE A WINNER!!!!
G Rex – congratulations!! you are the first of will no doubt be a long line fo conservatives to mention Nuremberg.
You win a copy of “the Five Biggest Lies Bush Told Us About Iraq” by Christopher Scheer.
Let me know where to send it.
The rigs off the coast of Louisana have taken employes off the rigs, due to weather. Nothing being pumped or refined….thats why we need more drilling everywhere huh!
Jason you had two calls this week, wow have they changed their rules AGAIN!
You could’ve used Kennedy’s at the Coliseum, GRex, but noooooo, you had to go nazi.
Sorry G, you have been disqualified.
A quick google search shows that you copied this Nuremburg thing from the last cave dwelling Hillary supporter.
How are the GOPers gonna fit the tanks and ICBMs into that arena? 😉
Hold on guys, I’ve never seen Kennedy at the Colliseum, but I did watch Triumph of the Will for a history class.
Funny – Bush makes me think of Nuremberg:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Principles
“The Authoritarians demand that everyone to fall in line. The Rethug convention will look like Pyongyang on May Day.”
And the Dems aren’t demanding that everyone fall in line behind Obama at their convention?
It must be comforting for them, however, to have a real Governor this time
Maybe but they still have a fake President to deal with
Andy – Unpopular, embarrassing, stupid in many ways, but “fake?”
Besides, I think states should deal with their own natural disasters rather than expecting the Feds to run in and fix everything (and subsequently pass blame to the Feds for anything that goes wrong)