Polling Report [5.22.12]

A new poll out of Texas keeps the state colored light red, as in Lean Romney. It shouldn’t be as surprising as you think it is. Further along in this post, we will discuss Texas’ future as a swing state (yes, it is coming). But not this year, as Texas will be won by Romney, no doubt about that.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Washington Post/ABC News): Obama 49, Romney 46

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 44

OKLAHOMA–PRESIDENT (Sooner Pol): Romney 62, Obama 27

TEXAS–PRESIDENT (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Romney 46, Obama 38

TEXAS–SENATOR–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Paul Sadler 35, Addie Dainell Allen 22, Sean Hubbard 22, Grady Yarbrough 12

TEXAS–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (

TX-SEN–R (Burnt Orange Report): David Dewhurst 43, Ted Cruz 30, Tom Leppert 14, Craig James 5, Lela Pittenger 4, Others 3

TEXAS–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ((Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): David Dewhurst 40, Ted Cruz 28, Tom Leppert 15, Craig James 5, Others 5, Lela Pittenger 3

There are no changes to our electoral map.

Oklahoma stays strong Romney, and Texas stays lean Romney. In the Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll above, Romney enjoys an 8 point lead. Romney had a 7 point lead in the earlier poll before that. These single digit leads are a further decline from when John McCain won the state 55-44 in 2008. The demographics are changing in the state, and the single digit margins this year reflect that.

The San Antonio Express’ Gary Scharrer illustrates just how dramatic those changes are.

In cities large and small, including urban centers like Dallas and Houston, and towns like Amarillo and Beaumont, the percentage of Anglo [i.e. white] children is steadily shrinking. The average in most major cities is about 10 percent, and in cities like Brownsville and Laredo it’s less than 1 percent.

Non-Hispanic white children are the minority in public schools, with Anglo enrollments in larger districts nearly vanishing and suburban schools following suit.

The group is on track to count for less than 30 percent of the state’s 5 million public school students by 2013.

In the past two years, the number of white students has declined by 88,256, a 5.5 percent decrease, while the number of Hispanic children has increased by 187,181, or 8 percent.

While you may be thinking that all of these Latinos are undocumented, but that would be incorrect. Just 5.4% of Texas’ population lacks the proper paperwork. The key for turning Texas blue will be to align these new Latino pluralities with the Democrats. And the Democrats have not had much success doing that so far. In 2008, just 38 percent of Texas Latinos cast a ballot, compared to 57 percent in California. In 2010, less than a quarter of Texas Latinos turned out.

If the Democrats get 57% Latino turnout like they do in California, then Texas becomes a blue state.