The Polling Report [6.16.12]
And this concludes a very light week of polling. We have a new Michigan poll that puts the state strongly back in the Obama column, but since it was conducted by Rasmussen, we can’t count it in our map, even when it is good for our side. The national polls remain tight, while Obama is up by 23 in New Jersey.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov): Obama 44, Romney 42
MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 42
If we were counting Rasmussen polls, I would have to put Michigan back in the strong Obama column, since a Rasmussen lead of 8 equals a real world lead of 12.
NEW JERSEY–PRESIDENT (Rutgers/Eagleton): Obama 56, Romney 33
Can we say strong Obama state? Yes, yes we can.
The EPIC/MRA and Baydoun/Foster polls of MI were garbage, too. The former used a biased question order and the latter didn’t weight by age, causing major oversampling of seniors.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2012/06/15/michigan-polls_n_1601368.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster
I wouldn’t worry too much about MI.
Mr. “Let Detroit Die” has no shot in Michigan.