The Polling Report [6.27.12]

So I have swung back to Jason330’s line of thinking: frack Rasmussen and other Republican polls whose sole purpose for existing is to shape narrative rather than conduct scientific polls. They cannot ever be trusted. And if we are going to criticize people like Allen Loudell for trusting Rasmussen, then we cannot very well use their polls in our polling report. So Rasmussen and We Ask America are gone.

I have also decided to do away with the “Toss up” category. Here are the new categories:

Strong Obama = Obama leads by 10 (Dark Blue / Navy)
Likely Obama = Obama leads by 5 (Lighter Blue)
Barely Obama = Obama leads by 1 to 4 points (Sky Blue)
Exactly Tied (Yellow)
Barely Romney = Romney leads by 1 to 4 (Pink)
Likely Romney = Romney leads by 5 (Light Red)
Strong Romney = Romney by 10 (Dared Red / Maroon)

I think this will give us a better understanding of who is up on any given day, rather than having 10 toss up states where leads are under 5 points for any candidate. Since this may be a close election, I think a lot of leads will be under 5 points.

Today, we have new polls in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Oregon, and New Hampshire. Someone decided to waste money and poll Utah. And NBC decided to do another one of their idiotic “Swing States” poll where they poll every swing state imaginable and report the results as a whole. Too bad there is no one state called the State of Swing, because then that poll would be interesting, on a couple levels, actually.

Here is our new map:

Obama 310, Romney 206, Tied 22

The new system has led to a problem with Missouri. The last non-Republican poll out of Missouri is PPP in mid-May, and that poll showed a 1 point Obama lead. I do not think Obama is leading Missouri right now. In fact, I would bet that if a nonpartisan polling outfit like Quinnipiac or Marist polled Missouri right now, it would be Romney by 4-5.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama 47, Romney 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 48, Romney 45
SWING STATES–PRESIDENT (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama 50, Romney 42

For the love of God, NBC, we do not vote as groups of random swing states. Stop doing this ridiculous poll. I like the result, but in the end it tells us nothing. “Swing States” defined by NBC/WSJ as follows: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. We all wish we have polls in each of those states.

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 45, Romney 41
OHIO–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 47, Romney 38
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT –PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 45, Romney 39

Said pollster Peter Brown: “If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election.”

VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (Old Dominion University/Virginian-Pilot): Obama 49, Romney 42
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT (American Research Group): Obama 51, Romney 43
UTAH–PRESIDENT (Dan Jones and Associates for Deseret News/KSL): Romney 68, Obama 26

Shouldn’t Romney be up by much more in the Mormon Homeland? Like 95-5. I am kinda surprised by Obama’s strength here.

MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT (Denno Research): Obama 40, Romney 40
OREGON–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 42
MASSACHUSETTS–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46, Elizabeth Warren (D) 46
MINNESOTA–HOUSE–6TH (G.Q.R. for Graves): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 48, Jim Graves (D) 43