Bounce Over. Obama Retakes Lead
Three of the Four National Tracking Polls show Obama back in the lead today, after trending that way since Friday. The Fourth poll is Rasmussen, and it shows only a one point McCain lead, so Obama will most likely overtake him in that poll tomorrow as well.
Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
Hotline: Obama 45%, McCain 42%
Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
Polls are polls, I can take them or leave them, and some are better than others as far as methodology goes. But all they are is a brief window into the opinion of the US. A quick snapshot. And national tracking polls are precisely that. They are more immediately reactive to events. Thus I consider tracking polls to be leading indicators of the state of the race. Where the real action is is in the state polls, for that is where the election is won. Right now, as you can see in the Electoral-Vote.com widget off to the right here, the state polls are still showing the McCain bounce. And we will have to watch them over the next two weeks to see if they come back to reflect the national tracking poll.
Or you can just ignore polls altogether and get out the vote!
They are drinking your milkshake.
I’m not big on polls either. However, they do drive the pundit conversation, so Obama trending upward is a good thing.
Nice graphic!
Yeah, many of those tracking polls are a 3 to 4 day aggregate. So when the earliest day drops off the most recent is applied.
With the dummies they put up on the Repuk side these numbers are not that all encouraging. I am afraid that Obama is going to suffer from the Bradley effect. You folks remember his 18 point lead for the Governor of California
Right, VC. I looked at the one day aggregate for R2000 and Gallup, and Obama is leading by 5 in both. So if today’s sample is the same, tomorrow you will see Obama increase his lead.
TT, the racists who will not vote for Obama because they think he is arrogant (code for uppity) and because he is black are already stating their intentions. Hell, there was an article in the NY Times today about Scranton where a man can said, out loud, that he can’t vote for him because he is black, and because it is called the “white house, not the black house.”
So there is no Bradley affect.
TT, time to put your cards on the table. You have always been hostile to Obama. Is race a reason for you? Be completely honest, for it would be ironic for you to lie about why you hate Obama when you were the one to bring up the Bradley Affect in the first place.
Look, TT. This was ALWAYS going to be a close race. Last November a friend asked, “How could the Dems lose this year?”
My answer: “They could run a woman or a black man.”
Once Edwards dropped out the Dems were in for a “historic” fight. And don’t kid yourself, had Hillary won the primary we’d all be talking about McCain’s young, black VP pick. Yes, I am that cynical.
I am loving that graphic.
I have a good friend that said some sage remarks to me. He said to ignore the polls for 3 weeks after the convention. It is too volatile. We are coming up on the time when I can pay attention to them.
It’s the economy, stupid!
“TT, the racists who will not vote for Obama because they think he is arrogant (code for uppity) and because he is black are already stating their intentions. ”
More race-baiting on the left I see DD. The entire middle of the country opposes Obama (see all the red?) That cant possibly be because they reject his liberal, socialist policies and his arrogance towards them. No, it couldn’t possibly be that, so the best your feeble mind can come up with is that whites in America’s heartland who oppose him because he’s black and they’re all racist bigots.
I’ll give you a clue. Arrogant is not code for “uppity black.” Arrogant means arrogant and that’s what Obama is.
HA!!!
Hook, line, and sinker.
Polls this close mean nothing when they swing 2-3 points one way or the other.
Somehow I don’t think Hillary would be riding in the celebration jeep. She definitely wouldn’t be riding shotgun…
(BTW…Zoolander…love that movie…and it’s not a “milkshake” it’s an orange mocha frappuccino…)
Mike, I’ve got news for you:
All politicians are arrogant. McCain is arrogant. Palin is arrogant. Clinton is arrogant. Bush is arrogant. Obama is arrogant.
Why?
Because it takes an extremely confident person to think and say that he or she should be President. To say you don’t like a politician because he or she is arrogant is like saying you don’t like baseball because the ball is round.
Thus, when you use arrogance as an excuse, you are hiding your racism.
I give credit to TDS. God Stewart was on target last night!
delawaredem wrote:
Too funny.
I throw a pile of steaming feces at racists Mike W.
DD if you had read my earlier post you would know that Hillary was my gal,However after she lost i9 supported and continue to support obama however , with all the shit Bush has put us Thur these past 8 years i cannot understand why his lead is so slim. I watched the dem’s snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the past . hoping it doesn’t happen again this time . Remember the Repuks beat a war hero in Georgia who had lost 2 arms and a leg in Nam and also a young woman in IL who lost both legs in Iraq both with a chicken hawk repuk
The lead is so slim BECAUSE people don’t like him because he is black. Thus, there is no Bradley Affect. A Bradley Affect is when people say to pollsters I am voting Obama but then don’t because they are racist. Here, we have people telling pollsters they are not voting Obama. They hide their reason, or say McCain is mavericky, but the affect is not hidden.
That is why the lead is so close.
One factor that Chris Matthews wheedled out of UpChuck Todd on Hardball last night was that Obama has a bevy of unknowns ready to vote for him. These newly registered DEMs are not in the sightlines for these professional pollers and are considered to be a ‘surprise’ edge for the DEM ticket come November.
TT, please don’t buy into the Republican spin. They are trying to pretend that Obama should be twenty points ahead. Pure crap. Yes, race IS a factor, and we have always known it. (look at our older posts. We dealt quite openly with the race issue.) I agree with DD. The affect is not hidden.
True, Nancy.
Yeah, I don’t think the race issue is hidden any more. What you usually hear is that they think Obama is a secret Muslim or that they just don’t trust him.
“Thus, when you use arrogance as an excuse, you are hiding your racism.”
So if you were black and I said I didn’t like you because I thought you were a dumbass I’d just be using your idiocy to hide my racism. Right?
You’re nuts DD – You’ve bought into the whole race/identity politics BS.
The more Mike W cries, “I ain’t no racisist!” The more you know he is in the fucking klan.
Well, of course he’s a secret Muslim, why else do you think he hardly ever wears a tie – just like that Ahmadinejihad guy! See, Islam prohibits wearing silk because it comes out of the silkworm’s ass. Dead giveaway, if you ask me.
I guess that community organizer ‘insult’ wasn’t racist either…you know, since Obama’s had plenty of experience go after since his time as a CO. So why did Palin and 9ui11iani make such a big deal of it?
Von – Maybe because it doesn’t qualify you to be President?
Hey Feces – The below statement by DD is flat out moronic. I’ll call out his blatant idiocy for what it is.
“Thus, when you use arrogance as an excuse, you are hiding your racism.”
Grafix cracked me up, but not as mch as G Rex.
Monkey: Calm down…put down the poo…
*sigh* Looks like I overlinked a comment. To the filtration system, with me!
don’t see anything my man…
sorry.
*headdesk*
Damnit. Not worth digging up the links again.
Desk? I figured you guys were doing this from a hay rick somewhere.
“So why did Palin and 9ui11iani make such a big deal of it?”
Probably because you all kept referring to the Governor of Alaska as a mayor of a small town. If you wanted to focus on what she did before Governor then they focused on what he did to begin with. It only irked you because they were right.
Chris – They kept referring to her as such because they don’t respect her. Typical of liberal elites when up against someone who’s not like them.
yes, we are always critical of window dressing.
You guys should keep bashing her experience. It makes you all that much more laughable when coupled with your candidate and his lack of experience.
Hey I’m just a monkey, but even I know that Alaska does not produce 20% of the our domestic energy supply.
racists motherfucker!
She has as much substance as a fart.
All farts are different LG. Was it a wet one?
She is slick.
hmmm, I thought “slick willy” was the slick one?