27 Days to go – The Betting Lines
Since the Dem primary will settle the issue for many of the races in Delaware, election day is effectively a month out.
September 11, 2012 Primary Election
New Castle County Executive – Clark/Gordon Gordon plus 1 (no previous line)
Gordon just seems to want it a little more and that could make the difference. I’m writing in “Tom Kovach” because I can’t bring myself to vote for either of these d-bags.
Insurance Commissioner – Weldin Stewart/Crane/Others Crane plus 1 (no change)
I really haven’t seen much from team KWS, and Crane is running a great race. Still in a multi-way primary against an incumbent, you can’t make Crane anything but a slight favorite.
Wilmington Mayoral Race – Williams/Kelley/others – Williams plus 1 (was “no line’)
The CW on this race appears to give Williams a slight edge, but pandemonium can break out at any moment.
SD 1 McDowell/Brady/Martin – McDowell plus 1 (was McDowell plus 2)
I don’t know how much of my movement on this line is wishful thinking, probably all of it.
SD 6 Miller/Frederick/Staton – Staton plus 6 (no change)
I hate to be over confident, but Staton has been working at this for a while now. I have to think that he has his list of confirmed voters and is working on adding to it.
SD 11 DeLuca/Townsend – even money (no change)
I wanted to make this Towsend plus one, but I used up my wishful thinking. This is going down tot he wire. Since DeLuca hasn’t been tested in so long his campaign muscles might be giving out down the stretch. This is one to watch.
RD 15 Longhurst/Burton – Longhurst plus 3 (no change)
Nobody even commented on this in the last thread.
RD 19 Dunn/Williams – even money (no change)
There is a lot of good will for Dunn here are at DL, and the CW seems to be moving in his direction.
RD 23 Baumbach/Bock/Grant – No line yet (no change)
RD 32 McGlumphey/Bennett- McGlumphy plus 2 (was even money)
This could easily be set at Bennett plus 2. The current line is a pure guess. Even though I favor McGlumphy based on his fine work at the Parks and Rec floor hockey program in the late 70’s.
Good lines, Jason, and I don’t know if I’d change any of ’em.
I think that Kim Williams could be a plus-one vs. Bill Dunn, but that’s about it.
Had to laugh this morning at the News-Journal story, where KWS is quoted as saying that she’ll win, of course, and that Spivack will come in second. Has there ever been a more blatant attempt to prop up a non-entity in order to bleed votes away from the likely winner? Probably, but that was pretty pathetic.
Longhurst has a much stronger following than a plus 3 margin. She is out and about and everywhere… and from what I hear, has been hitting the streets daily.
McDowell – regarding the plus one (screaming at the top of my lungs hooray) lets just hope your predictions continue to move in that direction and the shitbag moves on after this!
Miller/Staton/Frederick – margin is probably a little higher with the recent endorsement of the guvenah, joan deaver, pete, etc.. however, speaking of financials, has anyone noticed that Staton has raised 105K vs. Fredericks, $4600… hell, I think he raised more money than lopez and urkel combined, crane, and stewart.
Baumbach – would have thought he would be the favorite… but what do I know. Will let most of you put your thoughts forward on this.
Thanks Jason for the thoughts!
I disagree with the NCC Exec race. Gordon may come close in the City, because he’s promised them everything short of money raining from the sky, but he wont take the county. The county is still paying on the nearly $80 million in employee lawsuits. Those are just the ones that were settled. Why would they put him back in to rack up more? I amazes me that anyone follows him.
I think DeLuca is going to take this one. He has an army of support in labor and a ton of funding.
I live in the 1st SD. Brady doesn’t have much support up here, even in Claymont. We’ve been trying to get him involved in committee and civic politics since he left office and he’s been MIA. Now he jumps back in and more than a few folks are bent out of shape over it. He’s a nice guy, but was always a back-bencher.
Gordon’s strength in the city (thanks to his dubious promises and not-so-secret alignment with Williams) give him an advantage over Clark.
Turnout in city will be higher, percentage-wise, than in the ‘burbs, and that could easily be the difference-maker.
Fact that taxpayers footed the bill on the lawsuits no longer relevant. We have short memories and, frankly, the payments weren’t that big a deal when they were made. The larger issue, then and now, is Gordon’s arrogance and high-handed, crush-anyone-in-my-way style of governance.
To JL: How’s Clark going to take the county? Anti development sentiment in the county was crystalized by the Stoltz ripoff and Pam Scott’s role in it. Ask Tim Sheldon. The special election was a Clark referendum. Clark’s response was to raise a ton of money from for the most part the development community. After reading today’s NJ article on campaign fund reports, I went on line and looked at Clark’s recent reoprt. It’s a who’s who of developer interests. Stoltz lobbyist Roger Roy, Stotz lawyer John Tracy (pinchhitting for Pam Scott),prominent land use attorneys Sean Tucker, Rob Krapf, and wendy Stabler( former pam scott partner at saul Ewing). Also well represented were the developer engineering firms Ted Williams (Landmark} Jeff Bross(duffield} Steve Lehm {vandemark and Lynch} and Marian Young {Brightfields). and of course we find The Delawre home builders association, residential and commercial developers george beer, Rob Wittig, Tony Fusco, Bob Hill,bob ruggio (commonwealth)Kevin Kelly, Leon Weiner Assoc, Fred Fortunato,David Cantera, Carmen Facciola, Verino pettinaro, John Mcgrellis and far too many Julians to count.Of course these folks only want a balanced budget and good government,
Why is Jonathan Starkey’s WNJ article yesterday about KWS using campaign funds for gas purchases not on delawareonline.com any more? The only current article on that site is “Campaign money goes to known names” with her claiming she’ll win.
It’s still up there.
People like JL are good at talking about things they know nothing about but are afraid to reveal who they are.
I think Townsend is going to beat DeLuca.
KWS’s quote in the article makes it seem like she’s convinced she’ll win, which is probably why she’s not out there much but lets those bogus bus ads speak for her. Wonder what makes her so sure? McDowell and the two fake opponents he bought for her to dilute the vote?
From looking at the finance reports that just came out, I would have a real hard time putting McGlumphy up at all, let alone by one of the wider margins in the state…
Kim Williams has it all over Dunn in the 19th. She’s actually working a campaign. Dunn has raised a tidy sum of $300 since he flipped out of the NCC Pres race. Not much confidence showing there. No one sees him doing much of anything. My money’s on Williams.
Does anyone know who’s handing out Dave Brady’s signs? They’re all over, in places that, last I looked, weren’t in that district.
Of course, after being gerrymandered out of his seat at the last redistricting, maybe he’s running all over the county, just to be sure. đ
I feel good about betting on Townsend over DeLuca. He’s run a textbook campaign and he comes off as a great alternative to tyranny.
Great stuff. I love election years! You may have a point, Paines Me. But keep in mind that Brad Bennett had likely raised a lot of money before he exited the race, so the figures don’t really reflect support for his new wife. Nothing would surprise me down there, though.
Agree with Heragain. I wrote that the Senatorial race could be tight if Brady was able to scrape the rust off his campaign. I’ve seen signs way out of the district, too, and it doesn’t fill me with confidence. They need to sharpen it up in a hurry.
My heart tells me that Townsend is gonna win. What scares me is that the D leadership seems to have turned this into an “I’ve got a bigger dick than you” contest. If voters in the 11th vote their own self-interest, it won’t be close. We’ll see whether the power of well-funded propaganda overwhelms a true grassroots effort. Volunteering for Townsend is a great way to make sure that that doesn’t happen. You should all know the address by now:
http://www.bryan2012.com.
A good friend of mine active in SoCanal politics called yesterday to ask for Gordon’s contact info. The last debated sealed the deal for this person to start to campaign for him – previously having only known for sure AnybodybutClark (and no it wasn’t Mulholland for anyone guessing). Clark just isn’t credible.
Clark actually brought out a graphic Wednesday to show that since he’s been in the Exec seat, he’s not influenced a single major change to the Unified Development Code — conveniently skipping over the five years he and Pam aggressively modified it in favor of welfare for his wife’s industry at the tax payer expense.
As far as law suits, Clark has overseen a slew of settlements that favored his pals that the county under Coons had believed they could win. Coons wouldn’t cave to the development industry’s go to strategy drop of a dime threat to see ya in court but Clark eagerly ensured the developers would get a compromise ‘everyone could live with’. I found out about the extent of this the other night speaking to an attorney who worked for Coons at the time.
Let Clark show us his joint tax filing with Pam Scott for the last 8 years. Please.
Townsend will have a chance to debate DeLuca next Tuesday night at Troop 2 in Bear hosted by the CLNCC. They will be getting a platform in the 7-8 time frame — questions about funding, taxation, and the general function of State government as interfacing with County government as well as those submitted from the audience.
“he and Pam aggressively modified it in favor of welfare for his wifeâs industry at the tax payer expense.”
What did he do that cost county taxpayers money? The only actual cost to taxpayers will be in infrastructure, and the county is responsible only for sewers; the state pays for schools and highways.
Nancy, They’re holding a seat for you over in the Corner,,,,
Just an FYI….
Harris McDowellâs Long History of Running âGreen Energyâ Scams
April 16th, 2008 ⢠Related ⢠Filed Under
Filed Under: National
By jason330
It is not hard to connect the dots when it comes to Harris McDowellâs serial energy malfeasance. The dots are so close together that they are practically touching.
[Re-Bumped up 10:59 pm – 26 comments so far and not a single one defending McDowell]
Dot Number 1: Energy Deregulation
In 1999 the Delaware General Assembly voted to allow Delmarva Power to make as much money as it wanted to without regard to the fact that it was a public utility and not a regular private corporation. Connecticut had passed similar âderegulationâ scheme (see also: abject failure) the prior year with the help of an eager lawyer named Randall Speck.
Eight House members stood to make personal financial windfalls if the deal went through. Naturally, they could not vote on the project though, since voting to increase their personal wealth so brazenly would not only be unethical, but it would have run afoul of the stateâs conflict of interest regulations. They abstained.
Luckily, H.B. 10 was passed several weeks later, which stated that âconflict of interestâ is soooooo 1980âs. The barn door was opened and the horses sauntered out voting for deregulation and a financial windfall for certain well connected persons that spring.
The conflict of interest issue and the brazen money grab by eight House members passed quietly, with little notice.
Even John Flaherty admitted later that he was not fully aware of the change in the conflict of interest regs. ââŚIt sounds like they are deregulating ethics,â he said after the fact.
After the deregulation passed the house something interesting happened. Senator Harris McDowell held the deregulation bill in the committee for weeks. Not because it was crap, but because he wanted to the bill amended to include $1.5 million for a state-controlled âgreenâ energy fund called the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) which would be used to pay for incentive programs encouraging conservation and energy efficiency. That sounds noble right? Hold that thought.
Harris McDowellâs just happened to run an âgreen energyâ consulting business called the Delaware Alternative Power Corp. which appeared on his annual financial disclosure report through 2001.
Dot Number 2: Killing Off Shore Wind
Shockingly, deregulation didnât work out so well for people who were not Delmarva Power shareholders. The slogan, âA 59% Rate Increase!â was not exactly used to promote the scheme back in 1999 so that increase came as kind of a surprise in 2005. In fact, it was such a surprise that rate payers were going to have to pay 59% more at the same time that Pepcoâs third quarter profits reached $170 million and the companyâs stock value increased by $500 million (allowing the company to increase its dividend payments to stockholders by 4 percent) that some people were alarmed.
So alarmed that the idea of re-regulating Delmarva was floated. To stave off that negative outcome for Delmarva, worried legislators put on their thinking caps and came up with HB 6 (the Electric Utility Retail Customer Supply Act of 2006). HB 6 established a process for procuring a new energy source based in Delaware and the RFP (Request for Proposals) for the project was put together by experts in the field. Namely, Delmarva Power.
You read that right. Delmarva Power wrote the RFP that the Blue Water Wind and others responded to. You can imagine the high-fives being traded around the offices of Pepco holdings when the RFP came out. Written by Delmarva Power, it was a classic, âheads we win, tales you loseâ situation which closed the door on re-regulation while opening the door on a new Conectiv Energy power plant in Delaware. Except, some interlopers spoiled the party.
Blue Water Wind submitted a proposal that turned into a huge headache for Delmarva Power because it was good. The public fell in love with it, the unions loved it and the PSC liked it with some small modifications. It met all the RFP requirements and seemed like a slam-dunk. Only it wasnât a slam-dunk for Pepco Holdings Inc, which makes more money when one subsidiary (Conectiv) sells electricity to another subsidiary (Delmarva Power). They didnât want these newcomers horning in on the gravy train AND perhaps more importantly, a successful wind park could undermine their whole âIf it doesnât burn, it doesnât earn.â business model â so they called Harris McDowell who sprang into action.
McDowellâs game plan would be to not only kill this specific wind project â but kill the very idea of off shore wind power. So While Delmarva Power pretended to negotiate a contract with Blue Water Wind, they prepared a lawsuit. To buy some time and perform some âdiscoveryâ for that pending lawsuit, McDowell called in his old deregulation buddy Randall Speck to run his the now famous âhearings.â
At this point maybe McDowell figured âIn for a penny, in for a poundâ or maybe malfeasance is like an Atlantic City Casino buffet to McDowell which he cannot get enough of, either way then went âwhole hogâ and drafted a bill:SB228 to remove any accountability and oversight from the SEU.
Remember the SEU? That little $1.5 million dollar fund set up to help ordinary non-Charlie Copeland type people get solar panels? You may be thinking, âSo what if the SEU becomes an independent committee that answers to nobody? Whatâs a measly million bucks? The state blows that on Blue Hen themed novelites each year.â
WellâŚthat little SEU could soon control in excess $100 million by 2014 based on proceeds a surcharge on green house gas emissions.
And who is the chair of the SEU? None other than Senator Harris B. McDowell III.
And who leaked a draft report to create negative PR around the wind park project as though it was the General Assemblyâs final word on wind power? None other than Senator Harris B. McDowell III.
And who called Randall Speck to grill the PSC and develop some pretext for a Delmarva Power lawsuit? None other than Senator Harris B. McDowell III.
And who blocked de-regulation until he got his slice of the âgreen energyâ cake? None other than Senator Harris B. McDowell III.
I donât know. On the other hand, I guess it could all be a big coincidence. McDowell is probably a decent guy. Iâm sure there are really good explanations for all this. I mean, nobody could be this brazenly corrupt for this long and get away with itâŚ.
âŚright?
“…modified it in favor of welfare for his wifeâs industry at the tax payer expense.â
I am not up to speed as others with respect to land use code changes.
However if there truly were changes which he and his wife benefited from financially, in my mind this is a violation of trust. Especially if their personal financial benefit comes at the expense of the quality of life of the citizens of NCCo.
I just managed to delete a long response to geezer so this retry will be brief (ish)
– adequate facility – concurrency is the law of the land in NCC with Kent recently passing it and Sussex trying under Joan Deaver’s stewardship to get it into the land use code.
Concurrency says, unless a builder wants to pay for the infrastructure needed to keep traffic and shit flowing for the proposed development, a builder has to wait to build until the government is ready to install facility (roads sewers etc. –
Unfortunately school capacity was removed by Dick Cathcart from this law or they’d have been forced to build the schools too. Did you know that the biggest ticket items doubled our state debt to 1.7 billion in ten years was new school construction (roads are a close second although accounted for on a different spreadsheet).
Builders try to influence state agencies all the time to get what they need done faster so they don’t have to pay. Look at DelDOT – 301 or the downstate 113 routes. Look at the Governor’s Square saga.
Clark and company eliminated or at least circumvented the spirit of the law with tricks like redevelopement, workforce housing and removing mass transit stipulations from ST zoning.
And DelDOT’s new regs are right in line with the political pressure from developers – it will eliminate traffic studies in lieu of district study zones — vastly weakening concurrency where the developer pays upfront if they want to build WHEN they want.
Now they are going to be able to get the public to pay more for their projects and possibly build before the roads are actually in place to handle the new capacity (BMP- Stoltz) We, meaning the state, are going to end up even further in debt to pay for the infrastructure of record plans on the horizon in the name of economic development.
Check out the Bayberry Infrastructure agreement written by Pam Scott, Ralph Reeb (Nathan Hayward) for one of her uber clients, Jay Sonecha of Blenheim. It is an open checkbook for infrastructure and flies in the face of the law. DelDOT under Minner pulled a huge scam on us to get Pam Scott’s client a free pass for his city. She did similar work for Stoltz, with Paul’s help – all wrapped around the changes in redevelopment ordinance.
Workforce housing gets density bonuses as do redevelopment plans that can skirt the law as well. No traffic studies. Thanks Pam. Thanks Paul. Don’t spend all your money in one place.
On the department of elections website, the contact email for one Harris B. McDowell III is his state address. Is this allowed? Isn’t that email address for state business only, and isn’t campaigning on state time against the law?
I’m not sure why they use that email address anyway. I’ve never received a reply from anyone in his office when I’ve used it.
Great post from the 1st District resident above. !!
If I may add something – Gordon is Sam Congo’s neighbor in Hockessin and they are good friends. When the Comcast battle with the City over Live Leased Access looked dire, a group of cable tv hosts took the lead and organized to fight Comcast. Tom Gordon was a steadfast committeeman for that group. He’s also on the PAL board and was key to turning things around recently there. He’s also been active on the Board of the Addictions Coalition. These are all organizations that mean a lot to Wilmington residents and got him respect and appreciation that has nothing to do with Dennis Williams, not that he doesn’t have the aforementioned alliance – he does and with Potter too. He’s popular in Hockessin and active on the GHADA Board. And they like him as an alternative to Clark below the canal because of Bayberry favors for Pam and the whole workforce housing issue that rankles people having to pay the increasing school taxes and share narrow rural roads with bustling, new, dense communities being constructed in the middle of nowhere.
I did’t know he was such a saint.
– No – He’s NOT “Well liked Below the Canal”…………
“- No â Heâs NOT âWell liked Below the CanalââŚâŚâŚâŚ
Are either of them well liked below the canal? Maybe Shahan or Husband is but when it comes to the other two my guess is that it probably comes down to who is disliked less.
You have a very good point which can’t be contested. – Unless, Uh, Nancy can come out of her seat in the corner of the room and put her usual, “I KNOW first hand stuff”…..