The Polling Report [8.22.12]
The big poll from yesterday was the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, that found that, despite Mitt Romney’s choice of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, the race remains unchanged. The poll found Obama leading Romney 48 to 44, but the more interesting result are that Obama leads by 22 points on the question about which candidate cares about average people. Further, the GOP’s favorability gap is -9 (36% favorable, 45% unfavorable) while the Dems are at +2 (42% favorable, 40% unfavorable). That’s not good for Republicans. These are the same numbers from prior wave years in 2006 and 2008.
Here is our new map, reflecting changes from new polls in Virginia and Wisconsin:
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (AP/GfK): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney-Ryan 47, Obama-Biden 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama-Biden 48, Romney-Ryan 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rassmussen Tracking): Romney-Ryan 45, Obama-Biden 44
NEW YORK–PRESIDENT (Siena College): Obama-Biden 62, Romney-Ryan 33
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 50, Romney-Ryan 45
This changes the swingiest of swing states back to Lean Obama from Slim Romney (that sounds like a Rapper name). Interestingly, Virgil Goode, an insane fascist running on the Constitution Party ticket in Virginia was included in one question in PPP’s poll, and when he was included, Obama’s lead increases to 8 (Obama 50, Romney 42, Goode 4
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 46
If there is one place that the Ryan pick helped Romney it is in Wisconsin. In the end, Obama will win it, but it is a swing state that shouldn’t be.
MA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 44
MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Denny Rehberg (R) 47, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 43
NY-SEN (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 65, Wendy Long (R) 22
man, it is really vital that Obama hold one of Wisconsin, Ohio, or Florida. I really dont think NC or even VA will end up in his column on election day.
Id also be interested in seeing a polling map…. if possible…. adjusted for estimated change due to voter supression laws. Will it really be enough to flip PA? Because of the “stop teh blacks” campaigns, this could be a much much redder map.
Ben, you are looking at a polling map that reflects the best scenario for the GOP, between the VP announcement and their convention. This favorable scenario for the GOP will continue until September 1. Remember in 2008, McCain-Palin led by 5 in national polls and were taking the lead in the electoral college after their convention.
So relax. If this is the map in October, then I will be anxious.
In the end, I do think Obama will take Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin. Romney will take Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina.
well, that makes me feel a bit better……….. talk me down man…… talk me down. (wont stop me from worrying until the election is over)
Intrade shows no real Ryan bounce. The “romney to win” position was bid up to 42% briefly, followed by some profit taking. Now it is trading at where it was back in July, around 41%. If Ryan had any impact, it slowed Romney’s slide down into the 30’s.
44% appears to be a hard ceiling for Romney, and Ryan hasn’t changed that for the bettors.