The Mother of All Polling Reports [9.4.12]

Someone did get a bounce out of the freakshow they called the Republican National Convention. And it was not Mitt Romney.

This from Nate Silver‘s page:

This is Silver’s graphic showing his daily Electoral College projection charted out over the course of the year. You’ll notice that over the last two weeks, the lines are going in the wrong direction if you are Mittens Romney. Indeed, Silver provides three metrics: Chance of Winning, Electoral College Projections and Popular Vote Projections. On August 27, before the GOP convention began, Obama was projected to win 299 electoral votes, win 50.6% of the nationwide popular vote, and had at that time a 69.3% chance of winning. Now, after the GOP convention, all three metrics have increased for Obama. Now the President is projected to win 51.1% of the popular vote, 308.2 electoral votes and has a 74.8% chance of winning.

Now, take a look at this graph.

This graph represents the Electoral College distribution probabilities based on Silver’s forecast model. The highest probability on the chart is over 350 votes for Obama (i.e. another massive landslide). The second highest is around 330, which is where the race currently stands according to the polls.

Here is the new map:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 44, Romney 43
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
COLORADO (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 46
FLORIDA (PPP): Obama 48, Romney 47
NORTH CAROLINA (Elon University for the Charlotte Observer): Romney 47, Obama 43
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama and Romney tied at 48
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA/High Point University): Romney 46, Obama 43

You’ll notice that I classify the state as Slim Romney now, and that because Romney leads in 2 out of the 3 recent polls. Usually I go with the latest poll released, but these were all released on the same day, so I went with best 2 out of 3.

WEST VIRGINIA (RL Repass and Partners for the Daily Mail): Romney 52, Obama 38

Why someone polled Racist Virginia, I’ll never know, but the results show a closer race than I expected

MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 44
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama 49, Romney 46

The PPP poll is the more recent one, so we are relying on that when we classify Michigan as Lean Obama.

MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 41

I had hopes for Missouri this time around, since McCain won it with like only 2 votes the last time. Alas, Missouri is gone. Strong Romney territory now.

OHIO (Gravis Marketing): Obama 45, Romney 44

Ohio moves back to Slim Obama territory from being “Tied” last week.

CONNECTICUT (PPP for League of Conservation Voters): Obama 53, Romney 40

The state moves back home to Strong Obama territory, after a flirtation with Lean Obama territory last week (must have been an outlier).

ILLINOIS (Ipsos for Crain Business): Obama 55, Romney 29

Another why do you bother poll. Strong Obama territory.

NEVADA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47
NEW JERSEY (Rutgers/Eagleton): Obama 51, Romney 37

GOVERNOR POLLS
NORTH CAROLINA (Elon University for the Charlotte Observer): Pat McCrory (R) 52, Walter Dalton (D) 37
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 45, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 5
WEST VIRGINIA (RL Repass and Partners for the Daily Mail Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) 56, Bill Maloney (R) 35

SENATOR POLLS
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 51, Pete Hoekstra (R) 44
WEST VIRGINIA (RL Repass and Partners for the Daily Mail): Sen. Joe Manchin (D) 66, John Raese (R) 27
MISSOURI (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Todd Akin (R) 44
OHIO (Gravis Marketing–R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 44, Josh Mandel (R) 41
FLORIDA (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) 38

(Jason330 adds…)

Here is the Obama/McCain map adjusted for population:

I hate how the un-adjusted map gives Republicans false hope.