The 62 District Strategy: The General Election Preview
As you can see, the top 4 statewide races, (Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative) are all virtual locks for the Democrats. Sure, there is some uncertainty with Alex Pires in the race against Senator Carper, and if this was 2010, Carper might have been in real trouble. But considering that this is a Presidential year, and considering the anti-incumbent climate has died down, and considering Pires’ own horrible mistake pursuing rumors of Carper’s health, I no longer feel that this race will be competitive. Carper might not get 70% or 60%, but he will be in the mid to high 50’s. Wade and Pires will be the 20’s, and Groff will get the rest.
Congressman Carney should garner the same percentage of the vote (mid to high 50’s) against the dumbest man in Delaware politics, Tom Kovach. Kovach appears moderate and non-teabaggy enough to be competitive with Carney. But Carney, in the end, should have no trouble riding the coattails emnating from the top of the ticket.
Governor Markell and Lt. Governor Denn will easily defeat political newcomers Jeff Cragg and Cheryl Valenzuela. So easily that no more needs to be said on the topic.
The remaining statewide race, that of Insurance Commissioner, I am labeling a toss up for now. Yes, KWS will likely be swept back into office on Obama’s coattails just like in 2008, but I need to see how this race against Mobley plays out. The same is true for the New Castle County Executive. Gordon’s machine, and Obama’s coattails, will likely pave Gordon’s way back onto Commons Boulevard. But I want to see how this race against Republican Mark Blake plays out. In fact, I feel that this race has the potential to stay competitive given the hard feelings of the Anti-Gordon crowd. And if Mark Blake is a good guy as Nancy Willing says, maybe he will give Gordon a run for his money.
In the County Council President race, Republican Mike Protack has never won an election and he is not going to start now. Christopher Bullock will win.
Now, as we move into the General Assembly, I want to explain the title of this post. The 62 District Strategy. It is quite obviously a riff off of Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy, and that strategy was to never leave states or congressional races uncontested. Even if we lose a race in an inhospitable conservative district, we give the voters a choice, and maybe change their minds. And if you don’t contest a race, you limit your possibilities of growing your party and you limit your chances at winning.
In 2006 and 2008, as Democrats were trying to win back the majority in the State House of Representatives, it was clear that the Dems were limiting their options by not contesting races and allowing undeserving Republicans a free pass at reelection. Luckily, the state Dems learned the lesson and recruited candidates, and good ones, in nearly every race in 2008, and they won back the majority, and in 2010, defended that majority while contesting nearly every race. For you see, when you contest every race, you force the Republicans to defend their seats instead of just trying to take yours.
Look at all the black on that chart. In the Democratic column, you will see black 6 times out of 62 races. That’s actually very good. We Democrats are contesting 91% of the races in the General Assembly. And some of our black spaces are understandable, like the three downstate.
Some are not:
1) The RD12, where Debbie Capano Hudson is getting a pass! That’s the district that I just moved into. I guess I will have to run in 2014.
2) The RD21, where Mike Ramone is getting a pass because I hear some Democrats like him and thus forced Larry Peterson from the race.
3) The SD16, where Colin Bonini—Colin Bonini—is getting a pass!
Regardless, I prefer to be us rather than them. If you want to see what the death of a political party in a state looks like, then look at the Republican column. They are conceding 23 races before the election even begins. That is a full 37% of the races in the General Assembly. For a party out of the majority, that is no way to win back the majority.
If you need any proof of that, look at the Senate, the body that some, including myself, thought the GOP had a legitimate chance to take back control of this fall. The GOP is not running candidates against McDowell, Henry, Marshall, Blevins, Peterson, Hall-Long, McBride and Bushweller. That’s 8 seats!!! 8 seats!!! To win a majority in the 21 member Senate, you only need 11 members. All the Dems need to do now is win the Townsend-Queitsch race in SD11(which they will), the Sokola-Stritzinger race in SD8 (which they will), and the Ennis-Unruh race in SD14 (which they should). Indeed, if you add up all the red and yellow on the chart in the Senate, you only get 10 races. So if the Republicans in the Senate win all the races where they are favored, and then win all the toss up races where it is even money, they still won’t win the majority! And some of those toss up races are going to be tough for the GOP to win: the new 6th SD between Staton and Lopez will be the most contested race in the State; Senator Connor may be really in trouble in SD12 against Nicole Poore, and good ole Bob Venables is likely to frustrate the GOP one more time in SD21.
Jon Sigler, the GOP Chairman, will tell you that his party has a great chance to be in the majority, but in reality, he has done the bare minimum for his party to have a mathematical chance to win. Right now they have 8 seats. They need a net gain of 3 to win the majority to get to 11, and yet they are only contesting 13 total seats in the Senate. No room for error is there in the GOP plan.
And that’s not even considering the fact that the GOP is playing defense in 3 of its own races: SD5 (Cloutier), SD12 (the aforementioned Connor) and SD6 (the new seat currently held by Sorenson, who is retiring). Assuming that the GOP wins all three (and they won’t), they will have gained no ground. They are still stuck at 8 seats.
Sure, Greg Lavelle might knock of Mike Katz in SD4, and sure, it is possible that Bob Venables finally succumbs to demographics in conservative Sussex, but where is the third takeaway from the Democrats?
Ennis? Doubtful.
Evan Queitsch defeating Bryan Townsend? Hahahahahahaha
Sokola? Nope.
I guess it sounds like I am complaining, but I am not. I am happy that the GOP is falling apart and has no chance to win back the majority in the Senate. I guess I am just awed at all the incompetence.
So my final prediction on the Senate: I think, at this point, the ratio stays the same: 13 Democrats, 8 Republicans. I think Nicole Poore defeats Dori Connor for a Democratic gain, and I think Greg Lavelle defeats Mike Katz for a Republican gain. I predict a Lopez victory downstate, and I predict that once again, Cathy Cloutier and Bob Venables hang on.
Onto the House. The Dems currently have a 26-15 member advantage over the Republicans. In the House, you need 21 seats for a majority. To win back control of the chamber, the GOP would need to win 6 seats while defending all of theirs. But how have they handicapped themselves? Well, they have given the Dems a pass in 15 races. So, the Democrats already have 15 seats and will only have to win 6 out of the remaining 26 seats to retain the majority. Meanwhile, if you add up all the red and yellow in the column you will find that it totals only 19 seats. Thus, if the GOP successfully defends all of its current seats and wins all the toss up races, it will only win 19 seats. 2 short of the majority. And some of those toss ups are not really toss ups.
For example, the 19th and 23rd RDs. I listed them as toss ups only because we have brand new candidates in Kimberly Williams and Paul Baumbach running to replace longtime incumbents Bob Gilligan and Terry Schooley, respectively. Yet, these districts lean decidedly Democratic in their registrations, and both Williams and Baumbach are favored to win their general elections.
Are there any opportunities for GOP pickups? Sure. I can see Dennis E. Williams losing his rematch with Bob Rhodunda, given his poor performance in his primary with Sean Matthews. But then again, Rhodunda couldn’t beat Williams in the off year 2010 elections. How is he gonna beat Williams in a Presidential year?
But, to quote Vice President Biden, that is literally it. There are no other Republican pick up opportunities in the House.
Meanwhile, the Democrats can further expand their majority if they win the competitive races in the new 11th and 20th RDs, with Lynne Newlin and Marie Mayor, respectively. And I like their chances in both. There is also a reasonable chance, a small one, but a reasonable one, that former Rep. Shirley Price wins back her seat that Gerald Hocker is vacating for a promotion to the Senate. I think, in the end, Hocker protégé Ron Gray will win, but it will be competitive.
So, final prediction, time, I say the Democrats actually defend all their seats and win the new 11th and 20th, adding two seats to their majority for a 28-13 advantage.
I think the Sokola-Stritzinger race is safe. Bill Stritzinger is not liked in the Newark community here politically – he was the one who tried to develop the Newark Country Club into 270 single-family homes, including with plans to put a road outlet into a neighborhood, and then could not do any of it because his company went bankrupt…
The Democratic Performance Index of RD 23 is 64%. Sorenson and Wagner brought this number down considerably, BUT if I remember correctly even in their races, while they won their races, they lost within RD 23. I understand Doughty is not conservative, but unless something huge happens in the race that affects it, it is very unlikely to go Republican.
Venables will lose. Bryant Richardson has strong Christian evangelical connections, and Venables is old.
And this is because you have such a great prediction record?
I do when it comes to the General Assembly, and I thought I was very kind to KWS in this post, saying she will likely win. So knock it off JP. You won. Stop acting like a sore loser.
Or maybe JP thinks the Republicans will sweep all races. I can’t see why he disagrees with me. And if he hates what we say here so much, then maybe it is time for JP to go elsewhere with his so wise commentary.
Know the main reason why I won’t vote for KWS… JPConnor.
Love these posts, DD! Here’s where I differ:
Gordon and Stewart are at least Lean D’s, especially Gordon. Presidential Year plus low information voters=big D numbers.
I think Cloutier starts off as the favorite vs. Counihan, at least until I see something that makes 2012 different from 2010.
Poore is likely to defeat Connor, IMHO. Dori is older and not in great health, the numbers are overwhelmingly D, and there’s lots of new communities in the district, and they vote D and don’t know Dori.
Ennis skunks Unruh. One of Delaware’s most popular local politicians and always underestimated.
Bryon Short and Quin Johnson are almost certainly safe. Didn’t even know that Short had an opponent until you posted it. Mulrooney is safe.
I understand why you rated the 19th and 23rd as toss-ups, but they’re not. Both should end up solidly D. Not much acrimony after those primaries. And the 22nd ends up solidly R.
Of course, as yesterday proves, I could be wrong…
I wonder is Unruh can pull a Lawson? the Smyrna/Calyton mafia isn’t what it used to be.
BTW, my early pick for sleeper race? Trey Paradee vs. Lincoln Willis in the 29th RD. Paradee ran a great campaign four years ago and the district has been significantly redrawn and is more favorable to Paradee’s candidacy. I’d put this one down as a toss-up.
But I’ll be posting something about the year’s most intriguing November races when, when, when I get around to it.
El Som, actually, it looks like we only differ on Gordon and Stewart, and even there I admit that both are likely to win. I am only labeling those two races as toss ups until the dust from the primary settles and I see what moves the two Republicans in those races make. But yes, both Stewart and Gordon are likely to win.
Actually, the Smyrna/Clayton mafia pretty much IS what it used to be. Lumpy Carson, anyone? Running unopposed, a great relief to tavern-keepers up and down the RT. 13 corridor.
I like Trey, I just am weary of downstate races favoring any Dem.
You really think Parrott will beat Bennett in the 32d?
I was going to comment on that one too. Bennett is the favorite in that race.
Steve, thanks for pointing out a mistake in my post. I colored and labeled that race Lean R, and then I said I only saw 1 pick up opportunity for the GOP, in RD10. That is wrong. The Bennett race is a second pick up opportunity for the GOP, and yes, I think Parrott can beat Bennett. But then again, I could be wrong. Maybe the whole insidious and transparent seatwarmer plan for Andria to hold Brad Bennett’s seat for 2 years is not objectionable to the voters in the 32nd RD. In fact, Democrats in that district just voted for him, er ah, I mean her, by wide margins.
Alright so lets put some hypotheticals in here: Pires generates support in Sussex county, UD campus, Dover,. Party line GOP take 30% of the vote. Could Carper and Pires split the rest? I think Pires has an unlimited bank basically to, at very least, make Carper work for it. Townsend showed in Dover its possible to take out Markell’s cronies.
Valenzuela can and should make a run at Denn.
God bless Mobley if he could pull it out.
Gordon will win executive.
And I don’t get why GOP doesn’t throw all their money on Kovach. Who cares if he made a stupid political decision. He is where he is, Carney is a lacky at this point….a set up guy where Delaware doesn’t have any leadership (the House). So I would pour money on Kovach/Valenzuela to make nice showings if I was a SuperPac.
And where did you get the “to quote” VP Biden? Biden has nothing to do with Delaware politics anymore. He has to stop assassinations in Libya and so forth. His kids might but I don’t see much influence beyond them.
Alright so lets put some hypotheticals in here: Pires generates support in Sussex county, UD campus, Dover,. Party line GOP take 30% of the vote. Could Carper and Pires split the rest? I think Pires has an unlimited bank basically to, at very least, make Carper work for it. Townsend showed in Dover its possible to take out Markell’s cronies.
The way I read so far is that Wade and Pires are splitting the anti-Carper vote in Sussex. So actually, Pires is cutting into the 30% base vote you are talking about.
Pires is a businessman. The presidential race is proving that you cannot just spend a fortune and guarantee a win.
But yes, Carper will have to work a little bit harder this time. And he will do it. Thus, disproving Pires’ main charge against Carper (that he is ill) and thus discrediting Pires at the same time.
Finally, Carper is many things, but he is not a Markell crony. It’s the other way around.
Valenzuela can and should make a run at Denn.
Denn is immensely popular. Cheryl will get the typical GOP vote (35%). And that is because Cheryl has already destroyed her image by latching onto the lie that was “You Didn’t Build That!” bullshit campaign theme that has proved herself to be a liar. Plus, the abortion issue may have already irreparably hurt Cheryl among her base. So I see no scenario where she makes this a competitive race.
God bless Mobley if he could pull it out.
If Mobley pulls it out, God will have nothing to do with it.
Gordon will win executive.
Probably. But he won’t get my vote.
And I don’t get why GOP doesn’t throw all their money on Kovach. Who cares if he made a stupid political decision. He is where he is, Carney is a lacky at this point….a set up guy where Delaware doesn’t have any leadership (the House). So I would pour money on Kovach/Valenzuela to make nice showings if I was a SuperPac.
I am not one to advise the Republicans on how and where they should spend their money. Kovach was recruited to face Carney because the first reelection for a Congressman is usually when the freshman incumbent is most vulnerable. So I imagine that the GOP will be spending money on this race. And Kovach will get about 40% of the vote, a high watermark for the GOP statewide recently.
And where did you get the “to quote” VP Biden? Biden has nothing to do with Delaware politics anymore. He has to stop assassinations in Libya and so forth. His kids might but I don’t see much influence beyond them.
Bullshit.
If you think Joe Biden has nothing to do with Delaware politics anymore, whether behind the scenes or in the hearts and minds of a majority of Delaware voters, you are incredibly naive and misinformed. And if you think Vice President Biden of Delaware doesn’t say the word “literally” a lot, then, uh, you are not paying attention.
I agree that the Markell/Carper relationship is how you said it.
As for Pires, I’m saying that you could, if the SuperPacs wanted to invest that way, have the GOP candidate pick up 30-35% of the vote, and then voters have a decision between Pires and Carper. Would Carper win? Absolutely. Or…..
Do they make Pires the GOP candidate basically, bury Wade like they buried Montgomery after the Kevin Kelley thing failed, and live with actually replacing Carper with the “idea” of a trial lawyer/businessman from Dewey Beach? I like that idea personally.
Denn didn’t give a great speech at the RNC. Just saying. He’s popular because you see Markell/Denn signs when you get off 273.
But Gordon went to Sallies…..
But this I find most offensive “If you think Joe Biden has nothing to do with Delaware politics anymore, whether behind the scenes or in the hearts and minds of a majority of Delaware voters, you are incredibly naive and misinformed. And if you think Vice President Biden of Delaware doesn’t say the word “literally” a lot, then, uh, you are not paying attention.”
You have been fooled like everyone else in Delaware. While there was basically a gang war going in the Delaware this summer, he was setting up for this race (which is not over yet mind you). You think he actually cares about Delaware anymore? That’s why his sons are the AG/a lobbyist/etc. They are placeholders but they don’t answer to Biden. Look at Beau’s actual political career compared to his father’s. They couldn’t be more opposite.
Joe Biden was a liberal public defender and a friend to the blacks, short-cutter at Syracuse, and Catholic who basically became involved in politics in a miracle campaign.
Beau is basically a conservative in Dem clothes, which is fine, but that’s his legacy.
Hunter is an insurance lobbyist.
How do all those things REALLY square out? You think Tigani was the devil himself? Why don’t you guys just go interview Chris Tigani and figure out what has gone on in Delaware since Biden took office. I think it would be an amazing interview…..probably far more interesting than this DelawareDem party-line drivel prediction bullshit you put out as if you are some kind of “enlightened source” on the Delaware Democratic party.
I would not count on the ‘Smyrna/Clayton mafia’ to rescue Ennis this time. He has been a real let down since taking over from Jim Vaughn.
What Pit of Stupidity did this Alex idiot crawl out of?
Yeah, I am not even sure where to start in responding to his second comment. I can’t even make sense of it.
Alex, looking to replace George?:)
I’m just an independent non-partisan observer. And I’m voting for Obama and I did in 2008. But I voted for Bush in 2000 and in 2004 (2004 was a mistake, he was corrupted by then). I think Bush deserves more sympathy than he gets. He was dealt a shitty hand by Clinton for not taking out Bin Laden when he had an opportunity in the 90’s. Its like the Romney situation now, if you surround a guy like Romney with businessman who know nothing about war except how to profit from it, it creates really, really undesirable situations like the one yesterday.
My bet is that a significant amount of GOP in DC area would vote for Obama/Biden too if they weren’t restrained by party politics.
@jpconnorjr LOL no….I just find all this kind of fascinating
I can’t believe you guys don’t see that this Alex character is Alex Pires himself. I’ve heard him speak many times before and this sounds just like him. Good to see you out there campaigning Alex.
Whats with all the speeches to the 9-12 Tea Party crew? I heard your “I did build it” Obama pander to that crowd last week.
Hahahahah… Great campaign strategy. Roll out your campaign on Fox News, pander to tea baggers in a Presidential year in a state with a huge democratic majority, and attack the only strengths that Carper has (Athletic, Energetc, Hard worker/busy, nice guy) by calling him sick, lazy, and the most corrupt politician in the history of the state of Delaware (scary stuff).
Do us all a favor…. RUN A REAL RACE AND MAYBE PEOPLE COULD STOMACH VOTING FOR YOU!!!
And please stop with the documentary/reality show, you’re becoming a joke!!
Oh! Knowing is half the battle. No wonder Dick Jenson had him on.
Love The Truth, the whole Truth and never loving baggers. Not loving Carper much, either.
Valenzuela/Kovach haven’t won me over yet but I’ll give them a shot.
I will be doing my part to dent KWS/Gordon and I’ll push my family to do the same.
I think a Lopez victory in SD6 is entirely possible…as a middle of the road friend of mine said on Monday as we talked about Urquhart “People like me will vote for Lopez.” My question is about Urquhart supporters and the Libertarian candidate. How many of them will go Libertarian instead of for Lopez? Also, the district has around 1000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. If Dems can get out the vote in a big way that could work against Lopez, too.
Yeah – Alex is Alex Pires, dudes.
Amusing that Alex (Pires) thinks the UD campus will rally to him. Predominantly out-of-state students who can’t vote combined with the UD College Dems who obligingly rallied to Carper despite lacking any particular enthusiasm for him (which I’m not criticizing, btw, just stating). Doesn’t sound like a winning strategy, Mr. Pires.
Isn’t this outing?
Alex Pires has been here posting under his real, full name. So JTF doesn’t seem to know WTF he is talking about.
Trying to out people here is a banning offence, JTF, so stop.
“Banning offense”…. just because JTF stated that someone named Alex is Alex Pires; a US Senate Candidate?
Wow, some people are really getting drunk off power on this site. Thats what happens when you get a couple mentions in the newspaper. I think its an example of what happens when politicians get a little power. Hahahahaha… Thats some DeLuca stuff right there.
New catch phrase… “DON’T BAN ME BRO!!”
Just a refresher:
http://delawareliberal.net//about/
What about when contributors were outing John Adkins when he was on this site commenting a few years back. I guess contributors are held to a different standard than we commentators…. THE 99%
DON’T BAN ME BRO!!!
Ummm I’m not a lawyer like Mr. Pires… but that rule only covers
“any Delaware Liberal contributor or commentator that uses an anonymous or pseudonymous user name or handle,”
Last I checked, “Alex” does not fit that criteria as it is his real name and not an anonymous handle.
Can we get a jury trail for this?
Good thing you aren’t a lawyer.
If Alex were to self-identify as Alex Pires (which he hasn’t) you would be welcome to refer to him as Alex Pires. However, for all I know, this is Tom Carper pretending to be someone named Alex.
Did you not understand this? Alex Pires has been posting here as Alex Pires. He might be posting as Alex too, but I don’t know that and neither do you. So we’re done with this topic.
EXCEPT to note that The Truth and Sammy the Bull are really one person writing under two handles. Pick one name and stick with it.
@cassandra_m You got me, I’m “The Truth”. :). I work with an independent voting group in Maryland and I’ve been around Dewey a lot so I just like the concept of his campaign. He does have some pretty legitimate points about a number of things, like being paid per day you actually show up in Washington, DC to actually work and the insider trading allegations. Third-party politics has its benefits; I was watching Fox News today and the only person that made sense (to me) was Joe Lieberman since he wasn’t beholden to more powerful, senior members of his party.
I’m just not a big fan of cronyism. I know that El Sonambulo has his people, DelawareDem has his wishlist, etc. Delaware is an easy place to develop biases.
I think that you are incorrect in regards to the 29th and 32nd. The numbers in both districts support the Democratic candidate.