The Polling Report [10.8.12]
A lot of polling firms went quiet in the middle of the week in order to go into the field fresh on Thursday to gauge the debate impact. Romney has definitely gotten a bump, but what is encouraging is that it is not at the expense of Obama. Obama’s numbers are holding, so Romney is just picking up undecideds. We should get a clearer picture of the battleground since Mitt Romney lied his way to a debate win last Wednesday.
Indeed, I have a question for Republicans and conservatives. If you have to lie about your policies, plans and ideologies in order to win, what does that tell you?
In some polls, notably the PPP poll out of Virginia last night, the Romney lies only served to make him more likable among Democrats and Independents, and they allowed Romney to win the debate. Interestingly though, while Virginia independents think Romney won the debate 71-17, it doesn’t mean they are voting for him. They are splitting their vote at 46% a piece. And while more Democrats may find Romney likeable now than before, they are not voting for him.
“Despite earlier predictions by the Romney campaign that they would be competitive in traditionally blue states like Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, they are putting no serious effort into any of them. Moreover, the Paul Ryan pick gave Romney only a short-lived bounce in Wisconsin. The latest polls in the Badger State show Obama with a healthy advantage in the state. This has left Romney has a very narrow path to 270, and no room for error. If Romney loses Ohio and Wisconsin, he would have no choice but to win almost every single other battleground state to win.”
So here is where we stand:
Please note, our dear conservative trolls, that we do not include the following biased pollsters from your side of the aisle: Rasmussen and We Ask America. If you want to live in your fantasy world where the electorate is all Republican and thus Romney is winning, please do so, but not here. We will stay with the credible pollsters as judged by Nate Silver.
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 45
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 44 (LV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47
COLORADO (Selzer): Obama 47, Romney 43
MONTANA (The Mellman Group for JET PAC [DGA]–D): Romney 48, Obama 44
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43
WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 47
SENATE POLLS
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 41
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 45
(MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England University): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45
Florida went light red breifly over the weekend on the intrade map. Now it is back to light blue:
At IEM Obama dipped to below 70 after the debate, but recovered to about 72. 70 seems to be a floor that is holding pretty well right now.
That is because, and as Steve Singser says at the Great Orange Satan, we should have seen it coming, but the Republican polling outfits (Rasmussen and We Ask America) flooded the zone with new polls in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and a few other places showing Romney leading in order to drive the narrative of a massive debate bump and to change the state of the race.
But now that more credible polls are being released finding the opposite, things are calming down.
The debate clearly sent a shock wave through the system, but I don’t think it knocked down any buildings. Who knows what another shock wave could do?
This election needs to be one thing – not close. If it is close, the GOP has already said that they are willing to cheat.
FWIW – I think that the underlying Team Obama strategy all along has been to “get to 50% plus 1.”
I wish it was “11th dimensional Vulcan chess,” but you go to war with the President that you have, not the President that you wish you had.
jason I think incumbency inherently makes your election strategy more conservative (not in a political sense) because you have a lot more to lose. IIRC the two major innovations Obama brought to the campaign in 2008 were, first, pursuing all the votes in the primary process (especially the caucuses that Hillary ignored) and running a 50-state strategy in the general.
The 50-state strategy wasn’t on the table this time for whatever reason, and he reverted to a more Clintonian (Bill not Hillary) battleground state strategy. From a process perspective I think that’s a dangerous move for him, because no matter what the polls say up till election day anything can (and will) happen if the margin is under 5% in your favor in too many volatile states.
Essentially he’s running a four-corners offense trying to hold a five-point lead for the entire fourth quarter.
That said, you’re right: “losing” the debate is not going to matter as long as he doesn’t look that bad twice.
Right. Because if he just barely ekes out a win and his Senate coattails evaporate, when he extends the Bush tax cuts again we will all just be relieved Romney didn’t win.