The Polling Report [10.18.12]
According to the Hollywood Reporter, the ratings for the cable network coverage of Tuesday’s presidential debate have numbers surged ahead of the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. That’s good. Now we have to see if the President repaired any of the damage he did to himself in the polls. Obama has regained the lead in all national polls but the Gallup poll (which is now looking like an extreme outlier when compared to the other tracking polls) and Rasmussen (although Obama is improving in that poll as well).
Looking at the Gallup poll, while I will not parse that poll like my conservative brethen, I will point out something that is extremely interesting:
East– Obama 52, Romney 48 (O+4)
Midwest–Obama 52, Romney 48 (O+4)
South –Romney 61, Obama 39 (R+22)
West–Obama 53, Romney 47 (O+6)
Anyway, here is our map. No changes from yesterday despite more polls:
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 46 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 45
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 40 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48
YouGov: Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 43 (RV)
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (Grove Insight): Obama 47, Romney 44–SLIM OBAMA
CONNECTICUT (Siena): Obama 53, Romney 38–STRONG OBAMA
MASSACHUSETTS (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Obama 57, Romney 39–STRONG OBAMA
MONTANA (PPP): Romney 53, Obama 43–STRONG ROMNEY
NEVADA (Grove Insight): Obama 50, Romney 43
NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 48, Romney 45
The average of the two polls is Obama 49, Romney 44, or LEAN OBAMA.
OHIO (SurveyUSA): Obama 45, Romney 42—SLIM OBAMA
WASHINGTON (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 45–LEAN OBAMA
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama 49, Romney 48–SLIM OBAMA
STATE POLLS
CONNECTICUT (Siena): Chris Murphy (D) 46, Linda McMahon (R) 44–SLIM DEM
MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D) 53, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44–LEAN DEM
MONTANA (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 46, Denny Rehberg (R) 44, Dan Cox (L) 7–LEAN DEM
OHIO (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 43, Josh Mandel (R) 38, Scott Rupert (I) 4–LEAN DEM
WISCONSIN (The Feldman Group): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 44
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson (R) 46, Tammy Baldwin (D) 45
The average of these two poll is Baldwin 46.5, Thompson 45, or SLIM DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
WASHINGTON (PPP): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42
Any theories as to why Gallup is so different? were they really that butt-hurt by conservatives calling them bias that they “over corrected”? I mean, timeline makes sense. Conservative media alleges bias in polls for a week, suddenly Romney has a huge lead.
The regions you cite do not surprise me, except that I do think that in the west (outside of California) Romney would be doing better without Gary Johnson in the mix in New Mexico and Nevada. On the other hand he hurts Obama in Colorado and possibly Oregon so maybe it is a wash.
Hi from Australia, watching the polls with interest but for the life of me cannot figure out why anyone is given Mittens a chance. One one of the most clear polls of the college vote I found Mittens is in doubt in 117 races where as Obama is in doubt in just 59. It is impossible for Mittens to make up ground. Unless it is true that they will be running a huge ” you have no id so cannot vote”. With at least 20% of the US population already voted and 3/4 of those votes for Obama in all swing states how can they say Romney has a chance. Keep working hard, the world community is relying on you to win for sanity’s sake. Fight for every last voter, never give up! Go Obama!!!