Monday Open Thread [10.22.12]
Here’s some more on the Gallup Outlier Situation.
Ryan Lizza: “In recent years, as the electorate has become more polarized, campaign tacticians have become more focussed on getting their own voters to the polls than on persuading others to change their allegiance. This year, the Obama campaign has a two-part strategy. First, they made what the campaign manager Jim Messina calls a ‘grand bet,’ spending heavily on a summer airwave blitz, with ads designed to soften up Mitt Romney in the eyes of voters; second, they have created a volunteer army on the ground to carry victory home.”
The Los Angeles Times Editorial Board:
On economic issues, the race between Obama and Romney presents a stark choice. Romney wants to cut taxes, spending and regulations in the hope that the mix of stimulus and austerity will spark growth and reduce the federal deficit. Obama wants to trim spending but raise taxes on high-income Americans, shrinking the deficit without sacrificing investments in the country’s productive capacity or curtailing Washington’s role in protecting the vulnerable. […]
Voters face a momentous choice in November between two candidates offering sharply different prescriptions for what ails the country. Obama’s recalls the successful formula of the 1990s, when the government raised taxes and slowed spending to close the deficit. The alternative offered by Romney would neglect the country’s infrastructure and human resources for the sake of yet another tax cut and a larger defense budget than even the Pentagon is seeking. The Times urges voters to reelect Obama.
I’m not a Democrat. I’m, like Norman Lear, a compassionate conservative. And the only compassionate conservative running is Obama. — Richard Dreyfuss (@RichardDreyfuss) October 20, 2012
Finally, as we now two weeks out from the election, although I do loving polling, they become less important than the ground game. And that is why the Obama campaign’s early voting and registration efforts are so important. Booman looks at Nevada’s numbers:
– Statewide, Nevada Democrats now have a 90,187 raw vote advantage. And yes, that makes for a 7.17% advantage. Back in March, Democrats only had about a 4% statewide edge. And it was even smaller earlier this year.
– In Washoe County, Republicans’ voter registration edge has narrowed even further. It’s now a mere 1,169 raw votes, or 0.005%. In March, Republicans had a 1.76% edge.
– In Clark County, Democrats are closing with a 127,471 raw vote lead, or a 14.96% advantage. In March, Democrats had an 11.68% advantage countywide.
– In NV-03, Democrats are closing with a 7,066 raw vote lead, or a 2.11% edge. In March, Republicans actually had a tiny 0.01% edge.
– In NV-04, Democrats are closing with a 41,094 raw vote lead, or a 13.27% advantage. In March, Democrats had a 9.91% advantage.
In North Carolina, where polls show it to be a close race that probably favors Romney in the end, we get some great news from their registration and early voting numbers. Indeed, antedoctal reports from North Carolina Democrats have always been pretty great, in contrast to polling.
North Carolina began in-person early voting on Thursday, and oh what a difference a day makes. In one day, over 150,872 people voted in-person, which is the Democrats preferred method of early voting in North Carolina. The party registration numbers were upended. As of Wednesday, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats 52 percent to 27 percent and as of Thursday, Democrats outnumber Republicans 47 percent to 35 percent. But before we call North Carolina for Obama, registered Democrats had healthy early vote leads in 2008 and 2004.
North Carolina has an innovation unavailable elsewhere. In-person early voting is called “one stop” voting in the state because a person can register and vote all in one stop at an early voting polling location. Over 100,000 people took advantage of this in 2008. Unregistered voters don’t even make registered voter poll screens, much less likely voter screens. It will be worthwhile to watch if one stop voting moves the North Carolina polling as early voting progresses.
Stepping back from the ledge now. Thanks!
Im going to be on “the ledge” until enough time has passed AFTER Obama is re-elected for Scott Walker, Rick Scott, John Kasich, and Tom Corbit to “find” some extra boxes of pro-romney ballots.
This morning I told my Dem but mostly non-political wife that if Romney won, the middle class would continue to shrink and we wouldn’t see real prosperity again in our lifetimes. That made a pretty good impression on her. But when I told her our son had to register for the draft in four years, that really got her attention. I think she’ll stay awake for the foreign policy debate tonight. Now THERE’S a women’s issue.
I doubt the draft is comming back. it’s FAR too unpopular and any party that brings it back would face electoral oblivion in the following election.
OH HEY SB!
Good to see you out here on the ledge. I’ve got your lawn chair ready and I’ve made us come coffee.
What movie do you want to watch first? We’ve got some time until we stop holding our breath in mid December.
The Medical Society of Delaware http://www.medsocdel.org is sponsoring debates tonight which are excluding all 3rd party candidates. It is a private group, but everyone should know that a large, state doctor’s organization has no interest in fairly presenting all ballot qualified candidates.
Just got an anti-Bullock pro-Protack robocall from a 202 area code.
Have you ever found yourself in a room at a table with attractive, intelligent and interesting people? Let’s say a third of that room was packed with the same. And a organizer that was illegally fired in the name of profit. And some lawyers.
Well, if you have the opportunity to pour yourself into a chair in such a room then you’re about to experience a DL gathering. They don’t do balloon animals, though. They’ve got haircuts and drink IOUs. Wit, sarcasm and fine table manners. A good time will be had by all.
And how awesome was it that Joe Cass himself came out to hang with us! It was a great time and so glad to see you and the entire crew.
I had a great time! Thanks for the scathingly kind words! 😉
Himself. That’s like centuries old Irish wife scathing her husband cliche. “Oh! He, Himself was kind enough to remove the dishes before he pissed in the sink!” Really, that is how angry Irish wives address their husbands!
“I dinna piss on the china!!”
“Himself” is a “person of importance”. Sometimes it’s friendlier
unless you spend a lot of time pissing in the sink. Then you wouldn’t hear that version much. 😉
And now the angry Irish women pile on. I know what it means, YOU know what it means and nothing between the two shores will change the definition. I do appreciate your nice spin, heragain. Or could you be the rare flower that blooms when the grass is high?
http://www.curiosityshoptea.com/store/product/9309/Irish-Himself-Mug/
However, Wikipedia agrees with you about the tone,
Reflection for emphasis
The reflexive version of pronouns is often used for emphasis or to refer indirectly to a particular person, etc., according to context. Herself, for example, might refer to the speaker’s boss or to the woman of the house. Use of herself or himself in this way often indicates that the speaker attributes some degree of arrogance or selfishness to the person in question. Note also the indirectness of this construction relative to, for example, She’s coming now
“‘Tis herself that’s coming now.” Is í féin atá ag teacht anois.
“Was it all of ye or just yourself?” Ar sibhse go léir ná tusa féin a bhí i gceist?
I only report it as I’ve known it. May be more insulting than I’ve seen it, ymmv.
“everyone should know that a large, state doctor’s organization has no interest in fairly presenting all ballot qualified candidates.”
Good for them. Why waste their time?