Reverse Bradley Effect
This is a direct pickup from Kos Diarists Olon:
In FiveThirtyEight.com’s article about early voting today, there was a comment that deserves higher status than a comment.
The user’s profile states that he is an Engineer in Atlanta. I found what he had to say about African American turnout in this election very insightful:
I’m pretty sure the fear we are seeing among down-ticket Republicans is an acknowledgment that the wedges they’ve used to peel minority votes from Democrats in the past just won’t work this year. Kenyada writes:
I suggest that the pollsters throw out all data for African American voting in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. This election is very different for AAs. In previous elections, the majority of us voted against Bush, but there was a wedge created by the Repulsicans when they appealed to the black church, and paid off black preachers. Particularly in 2004, where the pulpit of the black church became just another campaign stop for high level Repulsican candidates, including Bush.
In 2008, however, there is a ground swell in the black community, and silence from the megachurch leaders, lest they suffer the price of empty collection plates. In the past, we always had to choose the better of two representatives of the status quo. Change was not an option. This year the choice is as clear as a bell. You should see the lines in Atlanta for early voting. And the faces of the people waiting in lines stretching 60 to 100 minutes in length tell the story. “This one is for Florida in 2004!”… “This one is for Fannie Lou Hamer in 1964!”… “This one is for Katrina!”
I’m not sure you understand. This vote is 400 years in the making. Pollsters don’t seem to take that into account. My 82-year old mother had to be rushed to the hospital last Sunday – congestive heart failure. One of the first things she asked when the oxygen mask was removed was “Will someone please get me an absentee ballot. I don’t want to miss the election.” Committed? Nah, black folks are passionate about this one. This is not only a vote for a candidate; it is a vote for America, the America we heard about from our parents and their parents, across the generations. Freedom and Liberty sound so trite these days, but I remember those words spoken by my Dad on his way to the March on Washington. January 20th will be a dream fulfilled. And if you are expecting only a 95% response on Election Day, you are misinterpreting the sound of the drum.
I just read this at kos! Beautifully written from the heart.
I just got a chill.
I agree and (not to beat up on Hillary Clinton people) but this is something that I think Clintonistas never understood.
Damn, how are we supposed to keep the brothas down now?
My thought of a Reverse-Bradley effect takes into account the “no one knows how you vote once the curtain closes” method, which was the Bradley Effect. I say this, because I know of one person who is about as lily-white Republican as they come. He/She claims loudly that he/she is voting McCain. I know for a fact (via candid conversations) he/she will be choosing Obama once the curtain closes. So, my point is this: your stereotypical McCain in-the-public supporter will actually vote for Obama once no one is watching.
This doesn’t have the story-telling imagery as is included in this post, but both are factual and I think harbingers of Nov 4.
I think the McCain camp understands this and this is why they are not running the Rev. Wright tapes.
I’ve met Republicans who say that as well. This summer, during my time in Red Country! – it was amazing how many of my Republican friends confided in me. Guess I was the liberal therapist!
Best story: The husband and wife who whispered to me (separately) that they would be voting for Obama, but hadn’t told each other!
Pandora:
Holy crap! It’s like the couple in the Pina Colada song! They just haven’t met on their cheating-date yet.
If you going to vote for Obama…
but you say you’re voting for McCain…
Wait…no. I don’t know a damn thing about that. Nevermind.
LOL, Smitty!
If you like answering calls at 3am…
Living high on campaigns…
Next lines, anyone?
Then you’re “The One” that I’ve looked for
Let’s both not vote McCain.
(sappy accompaniment)
How sad is it that we all know this song? Great lines, LG!
Also, I do believe we’ve hijacked this thread. Sorry, Jason.
No worries. Smitty is the king of using 1970’s song parodies to hijack threads.
His rif on Terry Jask’s “Season’s in the Sun” used to lampoon U.S. Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho is a classic of the genre.
Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran!
(That was an actual parody song, if you don’t remember – back when Ahmadinejihad and his terrorist buddies were holding our embassy staff hostage.)
Geez Rex, what a buzz kill.
Has anyone here voted yet ?? Wife and I have last tuesday.
Not me. I actually can’t wait to stand in line!