Saturday Open Thread [10.25.14]
Politico reported yesterday evening that the lawsuit — which was supposed to challenge Obama’s executive orders regarding Obamacare (and appease the impeachment caucus in the lead-up to the midterm elections) — hasn’t actually been filed yet. Now isn’t that emblematic of everything the Republican Party stands. Lots of sound and fury signifying nothing of substance.
“The blunt math: Our present ratings leave Republicans with 49 seats and Democrats with 47 seats, with four Toss-ups: Georgia and Louisiana, which both might be heading to overtime, and Colorado and Kansas, where incumbents Udall and Roberts are in deep trouble — especially Udall — but retain a path to victory. To claim a majority, Republicans need to win half of the Toss-up states. Democrats need to win three of them to achieve a Biden Majority (a 50-50 draw with Vice President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote giving Democrats the edge). Given the playing field, this arithmetic certainly advantages the GOP, but there is at least some chance that Democrats might pull off the unexpected.”
Based on Colorado’s new vote by mail system, I agree with those that say the polls are underestimating Udall’s support. I still think he will win. I think Louisiana is gone, but I think Iowa will be won by Braley and the Democrats. So the GOP needs a net 6 seats to win a majority. That is their 45 seats plus 6 to equal 51. And they need to get to 51 to overcome Vice President Biden’s tie breaking vote. Right now I think it is a nearly guaranteed bet that the GOP will win Montana (Democratic Senator Baucus retiring), West Virginia (Democratic Senator Rockefeller retiring), and Louisiana (I think in Louisiana’s runoff system, incumbent Democrat Mary Landreiu will win a plurality on election day and then go down in the runoff against the Republican Cassidy).
45 + 3 = 48.
What does that leave?
South Dakota — I have no idea what is happening here. One poll as the Republican up big, and all the others have it a pretty close three way race. Let’s assume the GOP pulls this out. 49.
North Carolina — Democratic incumbent will win. 49.
Iowa — Democrat Bruce Braley will pull this one out. 49.
Arkansas — I don’t know. This is a close one. But let’s say the state’s red lean overcomes the Clinton’s. 50.
Colorado — Like I said, I think Udall wins. 50.
Alaska — This is another one that the conventional wisdom, and some recent polls, say the GOP should win. But the state’s Governor’s race has been turned upside down by an Independent/Democratic fusion ticket, which will defeat the GOP Governor, and a new Republican internal poll by Hellenthal Associates (R) poll finds Sen. Mark Begich (D) leading challenger Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 39%. So I am going to predict that Begich hangs on. 50.
So the GOP fails to get to the needed 51. But even if they did, they are in trouble in three of their own seats (Georgia, Kentucky and Kansas). Right now, I think the Dems win Georgia without a runoff, and the Independent Orman wins in Kansas. So now the GOP is back down to 48. Even if they convince Orman to caucus with them, they are only at 49. So I guess Larry Sabato thinks Alaska, Colorado and Iowa all are going to the GOP. I disagree. 😉
The famed “lawsuit” is going as predicted, nowhere fast. Expect it to resurface post election. Not watching the polls myself but will wait for the actual election, many races remain too close to call. Should be a nail biter regardless.
Aside from more subpoenas and even fewer judicial appointments, what’s the difference? The Democrat Party has given the minority Republicans veto power in the Senate. The Democrat Pary always loses when it wins and the Republicans always win when they lose.
Ugh. I really hate it when you refer to it as the Democrat Party, no matter your reasons.
It’s like fingernails on a chalkboard Jason. Stop it.
The party of bellicose, angry, uneducated, misinformed, fearful with lost of racial resentments