2014: My Predictions

Everyone knows who the President of the United States. But after that, it’s a crap shoot. A Jimmy Kimmel (I think, maybe it was a Jimmy Fallon skit) revealed that some people in New York don’t know who Joe Biden is. And we know moving down the electoral ladder, from governor to U.S. Senator to your representative in Congress to your state Senators and Representatives and your local councilpeople, that the smaller and more local a position, the less likely it is that people are going to know who they are. So the people who have the most power to affect your daily and everyday life, i.e. your county and city councilmen and women, your state representatives and senators, are strangers to you. But everyone knows Obama.

As a local political blog, we strive to keep you informed as to who the most important politicians to you are. But even we fail at that sometimes. National political news is easier to follow, because you know the players and the players want to be known, and you have many people wanting to tell you the story. If you want to follow local politics, your choices are limited, hard to find, and often lacking much substance. And its hard to follow events because the players are lesser known to you.

So to help in that, let’s start in talking about and predicting all of the offices up and down the ballot. And as you see below, I have included all the statewide and county level Row offices, even though I think some of them should not be elected offices (yeah, we shouldn’t be electing sheriffs, treasurers, recorders of deeds or wills, at any level of government).

Now, El Somnambulo has already posted his predictions for you. And he, along with our illustrious founder, Jason330, are very pessimistic, in their attitude, and in some of their predictions. I am a little more optimistic and realistic.

Why?

Well, I have talked to some people in some of the campaigns, especially after the News Journal story came out that mentioned that both parties’ internal polls showed GOP Treasurer candidate Ken Simpler leading Democratic nominee Sean Barney. I was told that, as far as the GOTV and the Coordinated Campaign operations were concerned, the campaigns were hitting their targets and were doing good. To me, that is all that matters in an election. Enthusiasm also matters, but a superior GOTV can make up for that. If you combine the two, like Obama did in 2008, fuggedaboutit.

Delaware is a Democratic state. It’s Democratic Party is organized. It has a very good GOTV operation. Democratic party registrations outnumber Republicans by several magnitudes in many areas of this state. So for Republicans to win in this state, either Democrats stay home or Democrats vote for the Republican.

Delaware became a blue state in 1992. That was the year of the Grand Musical Chair Office Switch between then Congressman Tom Carper and Governor Mike Castle. Castle was term limited, and so, Castle decided to run for Congress and Carper decided to run for Governor. Governor Carper, along with Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton won the state, and Woodburn and Delaware’s electoral votes have been in Democratic hands ever since. Sure, we still elected Republicans statewide from time to time though. Treasurer Janet Rzewnicki (R) remained in office until 1998, when Jack Markell (D) unseated her. Senator Bill Roth (R) remained in office until Governor Carper came and took his job too in 2000. Congressman Castle (R) stayed in office until he ran for the Senate and lost to Christine O’Donnell in the GOP Primary in 2010. Insurance Commissioner Donna Lee Williams (R) remained in office until Matt Denn unseated her in 2004. Auditor Tom Wagner (R) is still in office to this day. But since 1992, we have not elected a new Republican to a statewide office.

And until that happens, it is awfully hard to predict it. Is this the year it happens?

El Som says yes. I am going to say no.

If Chip Flowers had remained in the race, and won the primary over Sean Barney, then I would be ready to agree with El Som. Why? Because, as I said, in order to get elected in Delaware, a Republican requires that either Democrats stay home or that Democrats vote Republican, sometimes both. And I think that would have happened if Flowers were the nominee.

With Barney as the nominee, while he is not setting the world on fire, he is also not actively turning off people. If Karen Weldin Stewart can get elected on a coattail affect, so can Sean Barney. If Richard Korn can come one percentage point away from defeating Tom Wagner in 2010, then my God, Brenda Mayrack will beat him in 2014. Come on, you naysayers. Wake up to some reality here.

So yes, I am predicting Barney and Mayrack victories.

And that is because I am assuming that the Democratic GOTV operation is operating as it always has.

There is also no Christine O’Donnell levels of enthusiasm among the GOP base for Tom Wagner, Ken Simpler, Rose Izzo or Kevin Wade.

Another assumption I am making in these predictions is that Sussex County Democratic Party Chair Mitch Crane is going to get a few of his candidates elected. He has assembled a great enthusiastic team downstate, and their optimism is infectious. Now, not all of his candidates will win, and some Democratic incumbents are going to get knocked off (Atkins, Venables). But Claire Snyder-Hall and Paulette Rappa are going to win. And so is Sheriff-candidate Beau Gooch.

In the local New Castle and Kent County races, I pretty much went with the incumbent, because, and this is where I said Delaware Liberal has failed, I am not aware of the local issues in those races. The ones that are contested that is. I am, like El Som, shocked that not a single New Castle County Councilperson is facing a challenger, given the number of controversial zoning and development issues they take on. It is almost criminal, and it must end. If these officeholders do not fear the voters because no one is running against them, then they will not listen to you at public meetings.

Other races of note where my prediction may or may not surprise:

* I so wanted to predict that Jonathan Gallo would defeat Bill Outten. I would not be surprised if it does happen. But Gallo may be the Trey Paradee of 2014.
* My upset of the year is Rob Keesler in the 4th RD. Not this may be a biased prediction, because Rob is a personal friend of mine, but the reports I receive from those on the ground (not just with his campaign) are good for him and bad for Brady. And I think this upset will do more to set the future of the Delaware GOP, and the Democratic Party as well, than Ken Simpler getting elected.
* I just don’t know who is going to win the 22nd RD three way between Joe Miro, John Mackenzie and Steve Newton. As a blogger, I am rooting for Steve Newton. As a Democrat and a progressive, I am rooting for John Mackenzie. As a predictor and a realist, Joe Miro will win. Either way, I hope I am wrong.

There are currently 13 Democrats in the Delaware Senate, and 8 Republicans. And there will be 13 Democrats and 8 Republicans in the Senate in the next session. The Dems pick up the 6th SD with Claire Snyder-Hall, and the Republicans pick up the 21st SD with Bryant Richardson.

In the House, there are 27 Democrats and 14 Republicans. And next session, there will be 26 Democrats and 15 Republicans. I have the GOP picking up the 4th RD, the 9th RD and the 41st RD (Goodbye Atkins). The Dems will counter with pick ups in the 11th RD and the 37th RD.

But those are my predictions. It is quite possible that Atkins holds on again, and that Keesler won’t win in the 4th, and Newlin and Rappa won’t win. The real true realist in me thus sees only a GOP pickup in the 9th RD with Kevin Hensley. So, again, 26 Democrats and 15 Republicans.

Here is the full chart, and the district maps are below too. Now go vote.