Monday Open Thread [7.27.15]

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—NBC News-Marist: Trump 21, Bush 14, Walker 12, Kasich 7, Christie 6, Carson 6, Rubio 5, Cruz 5, Paul 4, Huckabee 3, Fiorina 2, Pataki 2, Perry 0, Jindal 0, Santorum 0, Gilmore 0, Graham 0

IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—NBC News-Marist: Walker 19, Trump 17, Bush 12, Carson 8, Huckabee 7, Paul 5, Cruz 4, Rubio 4, Perry 3, Christie 2, Kasich 2, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Jindal 1, Gilmore 0, Santorum 0, Pataki 0

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Mason Dixon: Bush 28, Rubio 16, Walker 13, Trump 11

All the other Republican candidates are polling in the single digits. […] When asked if they are considering a vote for Trump, a large majority (58%) said they were not. Only 27% gave an indication that Trump was under their serious consideration.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—CNN-ORC: Trump 18, Bush 15, Walker 10, Cruz 7, Paul 6, Carson 5, Huckabee 5, Perry 4, Christie 3, Kasich 3, Fiorina 2, Graham 2, Jindal 2, Santorum 2, Pataki 1, Gilmore 0

“The majority of those Republicans surveyed that wants Trump to remain in the race includes numbers of those seen as the core of the GOP primary electorate: 58% of white evangelicals, 58% of conservatives, and 57% of tea party supporters.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Economist/YouGov: Trump 28, Bush 14, Walker 13, Carson 7, Paul 5, Cruz 4, Christie 3, Fiorina 3, Perry 2, Graham 2, Kasich 2, Santorum 1, Jindal 1, Pataki 0

“There is clearly a core group of registered voters who identify as Republicans that has coalesced around Trump’s tough talk and proposals. He is even more clearly in first place than he was two weeks ago”

Yeah, we were all wrong when we said Trump was done last weekend. The only way to stop him now is to go nuclear on him. Let’s see if Bush has the guts.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—NBC News-Marist: Clinton 49, Sanders 34, O’Malley 5, Chafee 2, Webb 1

IOWA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—NBC News-Marist: Clinton 55, Sanders 26, O’Malley 4, Webb 2, Chafee 1

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—Mason Dixon: Clinton 58, Sanders 17, O’Malley 2, Webb 0, Chafee 0

NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–NBC News-Marist: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) 50, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 42

NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–WMUR: Ayotte (R) 45, Hassan (D) 43.

A new Pew Research survey finds the Republican Party’s image has grown more negative over the first half of this year, since they took complete control of Congress. Just 32 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Republicans, while 60 percent view them unfavorably. Meanwhile, Americans are nearly evenly divided on the Democrats, giving the Dems a 48% favorability rating and 47% unfavorable rating. A majority of Americans view the GOP as “more extreme” than Democrats. Democrats also win the empathy/honesty contest by double digits.

By 53% to 31%, the Democratic Party is viewed as “more concerned with the needs of people like me.” And the Democrats hold a 16-point lead on governing in an honest and ethical way (45% to 29%).

Molly Ball: “Trump has the Republican Party by the throat. It cannot figure out how to get rid of him. The party elites, those snobs in D.C. who do not respect or understand the people out there in America, are tearing their hair out over the damage Trump is supposedly doing to the party.”

“Yet the party has no power over Trump. He has the money, he has the press, he has the voters. If he does not feel the GOP is treating him fairly, he is considering running as an independent instead. In that case, polls indicate he would take a chunk of votes from the Republican candidate, and Hillary Clinton would win by a large margin.”

“So the party has to be nice to him; it has to let him on the stage. The 20 percent of the party that loves Trump may be dumb or racist or angry or wrong, but the Republican Party cannot live without them. The GOP is damned if Trump stays and damned if he goes, and no one knows how the show will end.”

How Dick Cheney watched the terrorist attack in New York City on 9/11: relaxed with his foot up on his desk.

Rick Klein: “We can only speculate about what kinds of props or insults Donald Trump is bringing with him to the Texas-Mexico border today. But the new ABC News/Washington Post poll out Thursday suggests the extent to which he may not need them. Roughly half of Republicans in the poll oppose a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants – and Trump gets support from a third of those voters. Think about that: In a 16-person field, the idea that any candidate could get 34 percent of that large a slice of potential voters suggests an extraordinarily powerful issue. That’s a much tougher sell in the general election, of course. But it’s a useful reminder that Trump isn’t operating in a political vacuum, or that his support is manufactured or meaningless. It also suggests that if Trump could go a news cycle or three without being, well, Donald Trump-ish, he could settle into a campaign trajectory that could last.”

Dan Balz: “Dissatisfaction and protest are roiling the politics of summer 2015. They are evident in the response to the angry rhetoric from Donald Trump, in the crowds that come to hear Bernie Sanders bash Wall Street and in the rallies demanding racial justice. For presidential candidates, there is no safe harbor. Ignore the mood at your peril; engage it at your peril.”

“The discontent is real, whether economic, racial or cultural. It knows no particular ideological boundaries. It currently disrupts both the Republican and Democratic parties. It reflects grievances that long have been bubbling. It reflects, too, the impatience with many political leaders — what they say and how they say it.”

The Social Security Trustees’ annual report for Social Security and Medicare was released last week, and it stated that President Obama and Obamacare have saved Medicare.

The Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund will have sufficient funds to cover its obligations until 2030, the same year that was projected last year, and 13 years later than was projected in the last report issued prior to passage of the Affordable Care Act. The projected portion of scheduled benefits that can be financed with dedicated revenues is 86 percent in 2030, declines slowly to 79 percent in 2039, and then gradually increases to 84 percent in 2089. The 75-year actuarial deficit in the HI Trust Fund is projected at 0.68 percent of taxable payroll, down from 0.87 percent projected in last year’s report. The improved long-term outlook for HI is primarily due to a change in the projection methodology that results in a lower estimate for long-range health care cost growth for HI and other parts of Medicare.

Medicare has 13 additional years of life after the passage of Obamacare due to the cost savings that Obamacare has already achieved for the program, referred to in the phrase “lower estimate for long-range health care cost growth.” So a vote for any Republican who wants to end Obamacare is a vote to end Medicare too.