Thursday Open Thread [7.30.15]

Bruce Bartlett at Politico muses that as a moderate Republican who voted for Obama, he should hate Trump. Instead, he is rooting for him… albeit for ulterior motives:

The Republican establishment foresees a defeat of Barry Goldwater proportions in the unlikely event Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination. As Trump’s lead in the polls grows, so too does their panic. Yet, for moderate Republicans, a Trump nomination is not something to be feared but welcomed. It is only after a landslide loss by Trump that the GOP can win the White House again.

Trump’s nomination would give what’s left of the sane wing of the GOP a chance to reassert control in the wake of his inevitable defeat, because it would prove beyond doubt that the existing conservative coalition cannot win the presidency. A historic thrashing of the know-nothings would verify that compromise and reform are essential to recapture the White House and attract new voters, such as Latinos, who are now alienated from the Republican Party.

A best-case scenario would see the nation souring on the Democrats after three victories in a row, the most either party has achieved in the post-war era, and the election of a pragmatic Republican in 2020, unencumbered by the right-wing baggage essential for winning the nomination that dragged down John McCain and Mitt Romney.

The Trump phenomenon perfectly represents the culmination of populism and anti-intellectualism that became dominant in the Republican Party with the rise of the Tea Party. I think many Republican leaders have had deep misgivings about the Tea Party since the beginning, but the short-term benefits were too great to resist. A Trump rout is Republican moderates’ best chance to take back the GOP.

Donald Trump just outlined his health care plan live on @CNN: "Repeal and replace with something terrific."

— Chris Moody (@moody) July 29, 2015

Alright then. Why didn’t you say so?

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY— St. Pete Polls: Trump 26, Bush 20, Walker 12, Rubio 10, Carson 5, Cruz 4, Kasich 4, Paul 3, Someone else 16

Nate Silver: “Despite what you may have read elsewhere — or heard from the man himself — Donald Trump is not all that popular with Republican voters. Sure, he’s in first place in many polls. But Trump is near the back of the pack by another important measure… Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are barely better than break-even: 47 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. Among the 17 Republican candidates, Trump’s net favorable rating, +4, ranks 13th, ahead of only Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki.”

“And yet, in these same polls, Trump is the first choice of an average of 20 percent of Republican voters — the highest in the field, ahead of Scott Walker (14 percent) and Jeb Bush (12 percent).”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Reuters/Ipsos: Trump 20, Bush 11, Paul 7, Walker 6, Carson 5, Christie 5, Rubio 4, Huckabee 4, Kasich 3, Perry 3, Cruz 2, Fiorina 2, Graham 1, Santorum 1, Pataki 1, Jindal 1

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Quinnipiac: Trump 20, Walker 13, Bush 10, Carson 6, Huckabee 6, Paul 6, Rubio 6, Kasich 5, Cruz 5, Christie 3, Perry 2, Jindal 2, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Pataki 1, Santorum 1, Gilmore 0

Trump also tops the “no way” list as 30% of Republican voters say they would definitely not support him.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Morning Consult: Trump 24, Bush 13, Walker 9, Carson 8, Rubio 5, Christie 5, Huckabee 4, Cruz 4, Kasich 4, Paul 3, Santorum 2, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Jindal 1, Pataki 1, Perry 1.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—Quinnipiac: Clinton 55, Sanders 17, Biden 13, Chafee 1, O’Malley 1, Webb 1

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CLINTON V. TOP 3 GOP—Quinnipiac:

Clinton 48, Trump 36
Bush 42, Clinton 41
Clinton 44, Walker 43

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–BIDEN V. TOP 3 GOP—Quinnipiac:

Biden 49, Trump 37
Biden 43, Bush 42
Biden 43, Walker 43

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–SANDERS V. TOP 3 GOP—Quinnipiac:

Sanders 45, Trump 37
Bush 44, Sanders 39
Walker 42, Sanders 37

New York Times: “Despite Chris Christie’s intense focus on winning New Hampshire, many local Republicans are not exactly enamored with the New Jersey governor. Interviews over the last month with dozens of current and former New Hampshire Republican Party town and county chairmen and chairwomen, officials and voters struck three consistent concerns about the Christie campaign’s chances here: the size of the field, his brushes with controversy at home and, perhaps most worrisome for his campaign, his personality.”

ILLINOIS–SENATOR–Public Policy Polling: Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) 42, Sen. Mark Kirk (R) 36.

“There’s more bad news for Kirk: His approval rating has dropped to 25%.”