Wednesday Open Thread [8.12.15]
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—Boston Herald/FPU: Sanders 44, Clinton 47, Biden 9, Webb 1, O’Malley 0, Chafee 0.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Rasmussen: Trump 17, Bush 10, Walker 9, Rubio 10, Carson 8, Huckabee 3, Cruz 7, Paul 4, Christie 4, Kasich 4, Fiorina 9, Perry 1, Santorum 1, Jindal 1, Graham 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Boston Herald/FPU: Trump 18, Bush 13, Kasich 12, Walker 4, Christie 3, Paul 6, Carson 4, Cruz 10, Rubio 4, Fiorina 9, Huckabee 3, Jindal 1, Pataki 1, Perry 1, Graham 1
IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Suffolk:
Trump 17, Walker 12, Bush 5, Carson 9, Cruz 7, Rubio 10, Huckabee 2, Fiorina 7, Paul 2, Kasich 3, Jindal 1, Perry 1, Santorum 1, Christie 2, Graham 0
MISSOURI–SENATOR–PPP: Sen. Roy Blunt (R) 40, Sec. of State. Jason Kander (D) 35.
Kander is little known, and those numbers for Blunt are life threatening for an incumbent. Put Missouri on the target list.
“I think that if no one stands up to a bully, a bully will just keep doing what they’re doing. We’ve got an empty suit here, full of bravado but not full of anything really meaningful for the country.”
— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), quoted by National Journal, on Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
An empty suit bully is the GOP Brand now. It is what the base wants.
As you saw above, Sanders is now leading Clinton among “likely voters” in that Boston Herald/FDU poll. I will need to see some other more established “gold standard” polls confirm that. Recent polls did have him within 5-10 points, though. Regardless, I do agree with Harry Enten that Sanders has a ceiling.
Support for Sanders rocketed up in Iowa but has leveled off since June. The story is nearly the same in New Hampshire. Sanders rose from June to July in the Granite State, but his ascent slowed. So what’s going on? Sanders is maxing out on gains simply because of increased name recognition. Different pollsters ask about favorability and name recognition in different ways — making comparisons tricky — but the University of New Hampshire (UNH) polled Democrats in the state in April, June and July. Sanders’s favorable rating went from 45 percent in April to 66 percent in June and then to 69 percent in July. The share of respondents with a neutral opinion or no opinion of Sanders fell from 44 percent to 24 percent and then to 20 percent during that period. In other words, between April and June, Sanders was picking up low hanging fruit: The liberal wing of the Democratic Party learned about Sanders and liked him. But now, most voters who are predisposed to like Sanders already know about him.
“When you’re dealing, and that’s what I am, I’m a dealer, you don’t go in with plans. You go in with a certain flexibility. And you sort of wheel and deal.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the New York Times, on his presidential campaign not releasing any policy proposals.
That’s not going to fly for long among Republican base voters. Trump will have to be stridently anti-choice, anti-Obamacare, pro-war, pro-theocracy in order to win the nomination. So far, he’s got the anti-black, anti-brown people and anti-woman thing down. But that’s not enough. And I still want to know how he is going to make Mexico pay for the Huge Wall in such a way that they will enjoy it.
Nate Silver says the “election” recent polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways:
They contemplate a vote today, but we’re currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.
They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.
They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.
They contemplate a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.
They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.
“This is why it’s exasperating that the mainstream media has become obsessed with how Trump is performing in these polls.”
The Washington Post reports that former Texas Governor Rick Perry has stopped paying all of his campaign staff, which is a sure sign that a campaign is not only floundering but about to go under. Prior to Citizens United, Perry might have already dropped out. But now Super PACs prop up dying candidates. Indeed, Politico says that three candidates are being sustained by Super PACs when their campaigns should already be over:
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“Yet unlike previous cycles, the tiering of the 2016 Republican presidential field appears unlikely to result in the quick exit of the GOP laggards. That’s because each is the beneficiary of super PACs that in many cases have raised orders of magnitude more than the campaigns themselves.”
Harry Enten looks at the polling since last week’s debate and finds Carly Fiorina the biggest winner: “She gained ground in every poll taken after the debate. In five of the seven polls, the gain was 6 percentage points or more.” The big loser was Scott Walker: “This one surprised me a little, but the polling is clear. Walker is the only candidate who lost ground in every single post-debate poll.”
Trump?
“The polling is a bit split on Trump, but there is enough evidence to say — at the very least — that he didn’t gain any ground. On average, Trump lost about 2 percentage points off his standing, and that includes a Morning Consult poll that found him gaining 7 percentage points — a result no other poll came close to.”
This is surprising. “Walker is the only candidate who lost ground in every single post-debate poll.”
Walker is pretty much designed to appeal to the brainless fools who vote in GOP primaries. I guess his brand of crazy is too calibrated and silky smooth for a GOP base that wants its crazy covered with a lot of sharp edges and soaked in dangerous viruses.
“An empty suit bully is the GOP Brand now. It is what the base wants.”
So true.
Breaking, DOJ/FBI seazing Hillary’s server. uh oh.
However, polls taken just seconds after the FBI walked out of the Clinton’s House with Hillary’s server show Clinton beating any GOP nomineed 80 to 20. (I think they mostly polled the Clinton’s staff and the neighbors and some of the secret service agents) I guess something’s got to give.
First… seazing? Republicans who scream that people should know the English language should, you know, know the English language.
Second, Republicans who can’t even update their browser think emails will be a thing. That said, if the GOP wants to make emails a thing… bring it.
Gotta have a candidate, Rusty. Can’t beat somebody with nobody. Quick — which GOP candidate is less a sleaze and more trustworthy than Hillary Clinton? Your squeeze Carly Fiorina makes Hillary look like Mother Teresa. She’s Donald Trump with tits.
so, turning over servers is now seazing? (really?) I guess that’s like how 2 men getting married nullifies rick santorum’s marriage.
If the FBI had a warrant and showed up in Chappaqua, that would be seizing (that’s the correct spelling, Rusty).
But I am glad she turned it over. It won’t end the conservative conspiracy theorists, because no facts end that (see Birthers).
And by the way, if Rusty et al want to create a scandal over having a private email address, they better condemn Condi Rice and Colin Powell too, both of whom had private email addresses that they used exclusively as Secretary of State.
That’s not going to fly for long among Republican base voters. Trump will have to be stridently anti-choice, anti-Obamacare, pro-war, pro-theocracy in order to win the nomination.
You misunderstand his supporters. At the moment, his supporters are pure id voters. All emotion (fear, anger, distrust) and actively fact-free. They like it there. It will be attractive to the tea-partiers that are sick of coming up with “justifications” for their beliefs against “liberal facts”. There is a path to victory for Trump that I didn’t see before. He will get the vote of every Republican that has every lost an argument to a liberal and wanted to punch them in the face.
As for Sanders, he has gotten the low-hanging fruit. But I think he CAN steal voters away from Hillary. Whether he does or not, I don’t know. It’s a confidence game. Obama was able to beat Hillary because his victory in Iowa emboldened voters that a black guy seriously could win the nomination. If Sanders can really win one of the first 3 or 4 (and he does have a shot in his neighboring state of New Hampshire), I think it could shift people’s calculus.
For many people, he represents an ideal liberal candidate, which we have been told can’t get elected. Honestly, 8 years ago, I wasn’t sure that a black guy could win the presidency. But here we are.
“He will get the vote of every Republican that has every lost an argument to a liberal and wanted to punch them in the face.
They are legion.
Re Sanders: If Dem primary voters worry that Clinton will be hurt by “servers” and trustworthiness issues, you may see some of them liking O’Malley. Sanders is still the longest of long shots.
“Breaking, DOJ/FBI seazing Hillary’s server. uh oh.”
Haven’t you learned anything over the years, Rusty Dils? The Clintons are above the law. The reason all these liberals are so confident about Hillary is that they know she is above the law….and they are perfectly fine with it, by the way.
I think the rest of America may be getting fed up with it though.
FBH, That the Clinton’s brazen through GOP bullshit is the annoying thing. You and Rusty, no doubt, much prefer the typical Dem reaction of lying down and waiting for the kicking to stop.
Actually, we are used to Republicans saying that Clintons broke a law (Benghazi, embezzlement, murder, rape, etc.) that most people have learned that Republicans are usually full of shit when it comes to Clintons (and Obama). Once people realize that most of what they say is shit, they will cease to exist. So keep pushing on that button.
“That’s not going to fly for long among Republican base voters….”
Really? The party that ran Palin isn’t going to run with an empty suit?
We can only hope that Joe runs! Run Joe Run!!!
@Geezer
“Your squeeze Carly Fiorina makes Hillary look like Mother Teresa. She’s Donald Trump with tits.”
What a sexist remark!
He may be able to pull off being more moderate on social issues and leading with macho chants about how he’s going to kick China’s and Mexico’s asses and satisfy the the sexual regressives with that instead
Because Mr. Internet has figured out where I live, every page I visit has a link to this lovely site:
http://american-security.co/
Can 80,000 trolls combine to roll Rev. Mr. Coons?
@Anonymous-
I don’t claim to speak for Geezer, but the deal is this:
If you run with the big dogs, you’d better have some thick skin and some fucking TEETH.
Fiorina was an incompetent CEO at HP. The HP/Compaq merger was NOT a success.
Ms. Fiorina is not so bright.
How is it that the shooting on 7th St. is not being discussed here?
My son and my former employer both WITNESSED this shooting. Former employer’s property (the entire 400 block of W. 8th st) backs up to the house where the shooting occurred and he also owns the parking lot on the north corner of 7th and West St.
WPD claims to have a “person of interest”. NO cops talked to the 3 white dudes who witnessed the shooting, and the WPD only listened to one older AA woman who *insisted* they listen to her identify the shooter.
Theo Gregory is a moron, but he can’t be any worse than DPW. That guy is clueless.
My wife works about 3 blocks from that scene. I rode my bicycle to the office today right past there. I feel you, LeBay. Although I’m not sure what point you’re making.
DP Williams is out of his depth certainly, but does that mean anything in this specific incident?
WPD interviewed an insistent black woman at the scene but not white people. Do you really think they don’t want to solve this? You must know more investigation goes on than you are privy to….
I’m just not clear what you are trying to say.
“Because Mr. Internet has figured out where I live’
No John, you tell them where you live, or rather your computer tells them. Delete your history, cookies, and temporary files and there won’t be any information for sites to read.
An arrest has been made:
http://www.wdel.com/story/69941-new-castle-man-charged-in-fatal-triple-shooting-in-wilmington
Thanks, puck. And there you have it. Perhaps the insistent black woman provided all the information necessary. Maybe we can also use the adjectives brave and helpful.