Tuesday Open Thread [9.8.2015]
Donald Trump “continues to dominate the race and confound his rivals by skating over pitfalls that would be expected to doom any of them. They are no longer counting on Trump to be the architect of his own demise. Jeb Bush has begun attacking Trump directly, while others, such as Gov. Scott Walker, have sought to appear much more forceful so as not to be totally overshadowed by the tough-talking real estate mogul and reality TV star,” the Washington Post reports.
“Long shots, such as Sen. Rand Paul and Gov. Chris Christie, have indicated that they plan to be more assertive in the second debate. And, unlike the first go-round, this one is likely to include former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina, who has shown a willingness and ability to hit hard. The newfound aggression, however, has not improved the standing of many candidates, leaving them eager for a breakout moment at the Sept. 16 event at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif.”
Politico: “Something has changed for John Boehner. Figures in his close-knit circle of allies are starting to privately wonder whether he can survive an all-but-certain floor vote this fall to remain speaker of the House. And, for the first time, many top aides and lawmakers in the House do not believe he will run for another term as House leader in 2017. The Boehner era might be coming to an end, they say.”
This is the 157th story on Boehner’s job being in jeopardy. It is the 157th because no one likes Boehner, but no one wants to try to lead that horrible evil fractious Republican caucus, and no tea party conservative has the courage to take Boehner on directly.
“Congress returns from its long summer vacation Tuesday to an all-out, three-week sprint to avert a government shutdown – and no apparent plan yet to quell the conservative rebellion over Planned Parenthood that has dramatically increased the odds of a closure,” Politico reports.
“The mad dash – just 10 legislative work days to solve the shutdown crisis, in between major votes on the Iran nuclear deal and the first-ever papal address to a joint session of Congress – presents a major test for Republican leaders in both chambers who vowed to end crisis-driven legislating. The smart money is on Congress doing what it typically does when it’s up against a deadline: Find a short-term fix and delay the fight for later. But the dynamics are so fluid and passions high that no one truly knows how it will wind up on Sept. 30, the final day of the fiscal year and last day to extend funding or have the government close its doors.”
Hillary Clinton “is rolling out a policy plan Tuesday aimed at lifting the veil on some of the wealthy donors who have bankrolled political campaigns while taking advantage of laws that allow them to remain anonymous. The disclosure rule is the only thing you can do until we get a Constitutional Amendment.
IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—NBC/Marist: Trump 29, Carson 22, Cruz 4, Walker 5, Bush 6, Fiorina 5, Rubio 4, Huckabee 3, Paul 5, Jindal 4, Kasich 2, Christie 2, Santorum 1, Perry 0, Graham 0
IOWA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—NBC/Marist: Clinton 38, Sanders 27, Biden 20, O’Malley 4, Webb 2, Chafee 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—NBC/Marist: Trump 28, Kasich 12, Bush 8, Fiorina 6, Carson 11, Cruz 5, Walker 4, Paul 5, Christie 5, Rubio 3, Huckabee 2, Graham 1, Jindal 1, Perry 0, Santorum 0
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—NBC/Marist: Sanders 41, Clinton 32, Biden 16, Webb 1, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Florida Times-Union: Trump 29, Carson 25, Bush 19, Rubio 6, Fiorina 5, Cruz 3, Kasich 3, Huckabee 2, Walker 1, Paul 0, Christie 2, Jindal 1, Perry 0, Graham 0
GEORGIA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—FOX 5/Morris News: Trump 34, Carson 25, Bush 11, Huckabee 5, Walker 2, Cruz 6, Kasich 3, Rubio 2, Christie 2, Paul 0, Fiorina 5, Perry 0, Jindal 0, Graham 0
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—Florida Times-Union: Clinton 52, Sanders 20, Biden 15, O’Malley 1, Chafee 4, Webb 1
GEORGIA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—FOX 5/Morris News: Clinton 51, Sanders 24, Biden 15, Webb 0, O’Malley 0, Chafee 5
Donald Trump is not a self made man. He is not rich because he is a brilliant businessman. He is rich because his father was rich.
“Donald Trump knows the United States will never deport eleven million undocumented immigrants or do away with birthright citizenship. But what if we did—what would be the political impact if Trump and other angry nativists in the GOP actually achieved most or all the changes they desire, cutting immigration back sharply?”
“We already know, because something very similar happened once before in American history. Ninety years ago, two Republican presidents—Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge—and a Congress dominated by Republicans enacted equally harsh policies against immigrants. Their success helped usher in the longest period of one-party rule in the 20th century. But it was the Democrats, not the GOP, who benefited, in one of the most whopping instances of unintentional consequences in American political history.”
First, this assumes that Trump wins the Presidency. I really don’t care much about what happens after than, since I assume I will be killed in a concentration camp that Generalissimo Trump will set up shortly after he takes office.
Chris Cillizza: “The summer of Trump looks poised to turn seamlessly to the autumn of Trump. His numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire — as well as nationally — look to have topped off a bit of late, but a) that still puts him in a very strong position, and b) his numbers haven’t dropped off in any meaningful way.”
“Trump’s immigration stance makes him appealing to a large number of conservatives, and his willingness to say whatever he is thinking at any moment conveys a sense of freedom that attracts less partisan Republicans. Trump’s, um, trump card in the race might actually be his unwillingness to accept big-dollar contributions; that’s his biggest applause line at many of his events.”
Hillary Clinton has the most progressive anti-drug plan that has come along in decades.
Today’s Republican Party is enslaved to Movement Conservatism, and Trump trumpets the rhetoric of that movement in crude sound bites. Since the 1950s, Movement Conservatives have been determined to roll back the business regulations of the New Deal. But those protections are popular. So to undermine them, Movement Conservatives hammer home the idea that legislation protecting workers, people of color, or women is socialism, a con that sucks money out of the pockets of hard-working whites and siphons it into the pockets of grasping workers, shiftless blacks, or slutty women. […] Trump’s danger to the Republican Party is not simply that he rips the veneer off the racism, sexism, and religious hypocrisy of Movement Conservatism, exposing its rhetoric about taxes and lazy takers for the elitism it is. Trump also articulates the anger of a generation of voters who see that they have been taken for a ride. Movement Conservatives promised voters who were falling behind in the modern world that if they voted Republican, tax cuts and a smaller government would create a roaring economy and they would prosper.
