Saturday Open Thread [11.14.2015]
Regarding the attacks in Paris last night that killed around 127 people (which I am sure may go up as 99 people were critically wounded out of 200 injured), we must resolve to stop terrorists whenever and wherever we find them. What does that mean though?
We already went into two Muslim countries to fight terrorism, spent 15 years there and tens of trillions of dollars, and accomplished nothing. Nothing at all. In fact, us being there made the problem worse. You cannot fight an ideology, or terrorism, like you would another country’s army. One is a philosophy, the other is a tactic. The terrorists would like nothing more than for the West to drop another 200,000 man army in the Middle East. It will be their greatest recruiting tool ever. And then they would blend into the civilian population, forcing us to kill and harass and terrorize civilians, thereby creating more terrorists who hate us for being their occupier.
So when I say we must fight terrorism, I do not mean fight it like a war.
No, the only way to fight them is containment, drone strikes and special ops that takes them out one by one. I know that is less satisfying to the red blooded vengeance we crave, but it’s the smart way to do it. And it is what we are doing. We have to, along with our allies, and Russia, redouble our efforts, and better coordinate strategy.
The dumb way is what the neocons in the Republican Party would have us do: putting an invading army of hundreds of thousands on the ground in Syria and Iraq.
Invasions can’t work against an highly mobile, loosely organized enemy that exists in multiple countries and locations. They’re extremists who employ guerilla tactics and are willing and eager to kill themselves as long as it takes out a few of their enemies.
It’s not conventional warfare. It never was. The more we treat it like that, the more resentment we create.
Agreed, Brian. I am at a loss as to how to fight people who consider killing themselves as part of their plan. When we treat this as a war we merely create more willing-to-die recruits.
Totally agree with containment and isolation. Petroleum reserves experts….tell me if we can quickly transition our middle east oil imports to other suppliers…..Canada, Mexico et al until we can get out of the oil business ?
We are compelled to provide major materials/armaments/air support to middle east actors willing to rid their area of the Caliphate (though tragically) these jihadists have probably as much right to change middle east borders as western colonialists did after the collapse of the Ottoman empire), which is one of the historic roots of our problem in that region.
We must, sadly, tighten both travel (to and from) to the middle east region, immigration of middle easterners and ramp up surveillance of actors identified as potential homeland security risks within our boundaries. Also, sadly, careful screening of displaced persons to whom we offer refuge with the current diaspora out of the middle east.
And, initiate severe trade and banking restricts in addition to oil on those middle eastern countries who fail to abandon support for jihadists from within their populace; ie: Saudi Arabia and the like.
Add to this major diplomatic and aid initiatives to partner with governments where jihadist groups are forming and operating within their borders.
Finally, way better intelligence gathering on the ground in countries of concern. This means learning from, yes, Israel who are among the best on that front.
We must engage the World Court to more publicly and aggressively put on trial these jihadist war criminals , including those we have taken out, as a clear statement to emulators that the world will not accept this kind of crime against humanity.
Interesting thought about oil. The US is relying on less and less oil imported from the Middle East as the years march on. I haven’t looked at the numbers in depth in a while, but a quick Google shows that in 2014, 27% of the oil consumed in the US was imported (and about half of the imports came from Persian Gulf nations and/or OPEC). We’re probably closer than ever to independence from Middle Eastern oil imports. Just need to push it over the edge.
The top 5 sources of foreign oil in the US: 1. Canada, 2. Saudi Arabia, 3. Mexico, 4. Venezuela, 5. Iraq.
.tell me if we can quickly transition our middle east oil imports to other suppliers…..Canada, Mexico et al until we can get out of the oil business ?
US oil imports from the MIddle East have been dropping for years. Oil is not the problem. That is hard for me to get my head around because I lived through two OPEC-driven oil crises, and “dependence on OPEC oil” is part of my psyche.
Currently the US imports 27% of our oil, lowest since 1985. Of our imported oil, 13% comes from Saudi Arabia and 4% comes from Iraq. The rest comes from Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico, plus marginal amounts from many other countries.
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6
Agreeing with Richard Holbrooke, we also need to get out of Afghanistan, excepting a means to surveillance of training camps to eradicate; we are accomplishing nothing there and it is a quagmire beyond repair. Our only presence in Iraq should be for staging sites, supply lines to them, the embassy/green zone for intelligence staffers and special ops and both drone and air bases. Otherwise, just out.
Sorry guys Liberals do not have the answers. We are in this position partly because of Obama’s failed foreign policy.
Actually Liberals do have answers. WE are here because Republicans threw wrenches into government’s cogs and stopped government from working.
ISIS is the direct result of the neocon’s Iraq Invasion
No Republicans = Peace and Prosperity. As a test… try naming one thing Republicans have ever done right.
Passing this on.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/?utm_source=SFFB
Something for those serious about ISIS to read.
The answer to Deldem’s query over what to do, is to continue to drop bombs on them and fight through proxies until they lose their ability to recruit. When it becomes apparent to future jihadist wannabes that they are not the apocalyptic omen of the world’s end predicted in the Koran, and are just another very badly run Muslim radical state, their damage should be contained.
Kavips,
I was just about to link to the same exact article, it is an excellent read. Basically the author is like a modern day George Kennan calling for a new grand strategy of Containment. ISIL’s style of governance is full of internal contradictions (just like the Soviet model that Mr. X wrote about) and can only survive through either continual expansion or direct assault. Holding ISIL still within their current borders will make them appear like a “normal” Westphalian state as they slowly degrade into the 6th or 7th Century realm that they wish to be and they will fall apart under the weight of their own internal contradictions.
Obama in a dream world!
http://thinkprogress.org/world/2015/11/15/3722351/paris-attacks-syrian-refugees-obama/
@A “Obama in a dream world!”
Huh?
Just because a conservative is worried doesn’t mean there is real danger.
(It seems to me like just a conservative’s excuse for more racism.)
And just because a conservative is not worried doesn’t mean there is no danger (e.g. 90% of all gun deaths are family and friends — yet the fools still buy many many guns for their kids to find and play with).
LE: WHY take the chance? WHY not give humanitarian aid in their own country? WHY not help them re-build their homeland? Obama is trying to save his legacy, he is only thinking about his self!!!
Anonymous, you’ve been paying attention for the last 15 years right? “Why not help them re-build their homeland?”
Their homeland is not done being torn apart yet (hence the refugees?), and we don’t really have a stellar reputation for nation building. In fact, we suck at it.
I’m not quite sure how providing safe harbor for warzone refugees means the president is only concerned for himself.
Anonymous’ questions demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the situation and history. Basically, LE is correct when he says, “It seems to me like just a conservative’s excuse for more racism.” That’s exactly what it is. In Anonymous’ world Muslim = terrorist. It’s his worldview, which is very small.
We need more soft power to defund them and effort to interrupt the death culture brainwashing. I heard part of a documentary on NPR that said ISIS is paying fighters more than other groups. Where is that money coming coming from
Pandora your WRONG! Where are they getting their “vetting” info, Syria?
WHY take the chance? And WE are the ones, bombing indiscriminately with drones. This is pure gorilla warfare. They hide amongst innocent people. So you need special forces on the ground.
Pandora=my way or no way!
Jesus. Is that meant to be performance art?
the ideal, probably just pure fantasy: find some way to kill every single terrorist. every one, however ruthless we have to be. then, if we have to, kill every muslim who would the “turn to terrorism” as a result of that (i know, i know, it might be hard to figure that out, but it’s a fantasy). this would spare all the others, who can fight among themselves over there. i frankly don’t care what happens to them. many are complicit with the terrorists because their religion encourages fanaticism. historically, christianity also has encouraged fanaticism, but most christians (other than some republican presidential candidates) have become more civilized (at least a little).
of course, to get out of the middle-east completely means we cannot depend on middle-eastern oil. so whatever it takes to make that happen.
whatever we do, it must be in our self-interest — unlike the iraq invasion or any other nation-building. my fantasy might be impossible to achieve without consequences self-destructive to the u.s. but that should be our only concern.
just needed to work out a plan in my head to relieve the frustration. in reality, things seem hopeless right now. i feel a little better just for sounding off.
Mouse you make a great point. What has been said is that their using black market oil, to fund their cause. So, cut off that oil and cut off any aid to anyone who is buying that oil or funding them. We have intelligence, just like the info., we had, but choose not to use and gave that info to France.
It is performance art, Jason. Basically Anonymous’ plan boils down to kill/destroy/ban all Muslims. Better not take chances! He’d be the first to flip out if that standard was applied across the board. Only certain groups deserve “individual” status in his world.
Pandora:
I NEVER USED “KILL/DESTROY/BAN ALL MUSLIMS”, THEY ARE YOUR WORDS!! Give them humanitarian supplies in their land. As it stands right now, how can you vet them? Answer the question. Pandora. You, won’t, because it is only your way or no way.
Gorilla warfare, dude.
I know, right?
also, what john oliver said.
Conflict begats instability which begats refugees. The problem we have is that this is not a single event called the “Syrian Refugee Crisis” for which we have an immediate or long term solution. What are we going to do when the more of the Middle East falls into instability? When the creek turns into a river and the river into a flood and finally when the flood turns into a tidal wave?
When there are few refugees, it is relatively easy for nations to absorb them, but when it’s a flood, not so much. And it is highly inefficient to continually move masses of people between one place on earth to another place, and then another, and another.
As of October, there were approximately 1,172,753 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Think about it – Lebanon, hardly a bastion of stability! Lebanon borders Syria. As the ISIL state expands its brutal empire, where are they going to go? And how many Lebanese (4.47M) will be added to the ranks of that mass of humanity with nowhere to, no land to call their own, culture destroy, families decimated.
It’s relative for every country to say, they’ll take a few, but when they do and they realize they haven’t made a dent, what then?
Except for periods when many of the nations were a dictatorship, the periods of stability in the Middle East, North African and the Near East has been abysmally short. While the current refugee situation is deplorable, the worse is yet to come and the nations of the world need to collectively restore stability by whatever means necessary.
I’m not against accepting Syrian refugees. However, I am against accepting Syrian refugees and then declaring “Mission Accomplished.” We suck at nation building, but we had better learn how to do it very quickly because winter is coming.
Yea right.. Delaware Dem’s better start demonstrating they have answers for DE.. LOL
kavips says:
November 14, 2015 at 8:08 pm
Actually Liberals do have answers. WE are here because Republicans threw wrenches into government’s cogs and stopped government from working.
ISIS is the direct result of the neocon’s Iraq Invasion
No Republicans = Peace and Prosperity. As a test… try naming one thing Republicans have ever done right.
I already answered the question above.
“I am at a loss as to how to fight people who consider killing themselves as part of their plan. When we treat this as a war we merely create more willing-to-die recruits.”
I don’t know how you stop people willing to die for their cause. I can venture a guess… do there what we’ve done here. Build tract homes (complete with cul-de-sacs) install cable TV along with Walmarts every 10 miles and make sure they have money to buy things. Right now recruits are coming from people with nothing to lose. Take a page out of our book. Flat screen TVs and Soda Streams, baby!
Unless we are willing to bomb everyone (including the innocent men, women and children) off the face of the earth then there isn’t really another solution. If you think there is, name it. And if you’re okay with bombing them to oblivion then you aren’t that different than ISIS.
TK:
“Delaware Dem’s better start demonstrating they have answers for DE.. LOL”
They have a tendency to hid their answers, apparently.
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/opinion/editorials/2015/11/15/what-our-state-government-hiding-you/75727558/
Concerning the Middle East, BOTH side need to start working together and come up with a solution. The current Administration has no open mind, just his way.
you mean like a mind open to genocide?
The fact that some commenters here almost immediately contextualise this topic in a partisan political way is indicative of something very important… I’d ask you to guess what it is but I’m not confident you have any idea.
Can I guess?? Is it because racism is correlated with partisan political views?