Monday Open Thread [12.21.2015]

Senator Lindsay Graham, who wants 500,000 American troops to occupy Iraq and Syria for all eternity and misses George W. Bush, and who, even given all that, was the sanest Republican running for President, is no longer running for President.

NATIONAL—FOX News: Clinton 56, Sanders 34, O’Malley 2
NATIONAL—ABC News/Wash Post: Clinton 59, Sanders 28, O’Malley 5
NATIONAL—PPP: Clinton 56, Sanders 28, O’Malley 9
NEW HAMPSHIRE—Boston Herald: Sanders 48, Clinton 46, O’Malley 2
IOWA—CBS News/YouGov: Clinton 50, Sanders 45, O’Malley 4
NEW HAMPSHIRE—CBS News/YouGov: Sanders 56, Clinton 42, O’Malley 1
SOUTH CAROLINA—CBS News/YouGov: Clinton 67, Sanders 31, O’Malley 2

NATIONAL—FOX News: Trump 39, Cruz 18, Rubio 11, Carson 9, Bush 3, Christie 3, Paul 3, Fiorina 3, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 1
NATIONAL—PPP: Trump 34, Cruz 18, Rubio 13, Bush 7, Carson 6, Christie 5, Paul 2, Fiorina 4, Huckabee 4, Kasich 2, Santorum 1, Graham 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE—Boston Herald: Trump 26, Rubio 12, Christie 11, Cruz 12, Bush 10, Kasich 8, Carson 5, Fiorina 6, Paul 3
FLORIDA—Florida Times-Union: Trump 30, Cruz 20, Rubio 15, Bush 13, Carson 8, Christie 6, Paul 3, Fiorina 3, Kasich 1
GEORGIA—FOX 5 Atlanta: Trump 35, Cruz 16, Rubio 12, Christie 6, Carson 6, Bush 6, Fiorina 5, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Huckabee 1, Graham 1, Pataki 1
SOUTH CAROLINA—Augusta Chronicle: Trump 28, Cruz 21, Rubio 12, Carson 10, Bush 10, Christie 6, Fiorina 5, Graham 2, Paul 3, Huckabee 2, Kasich 1, Santorum 1
IOWA—CBS News/YouGov: Cruz 40, Trump 31, Rubio 12, Carson 6, Bush 2, Paul 2, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Kasich 1, Santorum 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE—CBS News/YouGov: Trump 32, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Christie 11, Bush 6, Kasich 8, Carson 5, Paul 5, Fiorina 4
SOUTH CAROLINA—CBS News/YouGov: Trump 38, Cruz 23, Rubio 12, Carson 9, Bush 7, Paul 4, Kasich 2, Christie 1, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Huckabee 1

NATIONAL—FOX News: Clinton 49, Trump 38 | Clinton 45, Cruz 45 | Rubio 45, Clinton 43 | Clinton 46, Carson 44

The editors of The Progressive discuss the real rift between Clinton and Sanders in the Democratic Debate:

The best moment of the debate came when Sanders, channeling FDR, welcomed the hatred of big corporations and Wall Street. The moderator had asked Hillary if, as a Fortune Magazine headline put it, “business loves Hillary.”

“Everybody should,” she shot back—a perfect political answer.

The moderator put the same question to Sanders” “Will corporate America love a President Sanders?”

“No, I think they won’t.” Sanders replied simply. “So Hillary and I have a difference,” he continued. “The CEOs of large multinationals may like Hillary. They ain’t going to like me and Wall Street is going to like me even less.”

“The greed of Wall Street is destroying this economy,” Sanders added. […] The preposterous Washington consensus that you can be loved by Wall Street and, at the same time, serve the interests of ordinary citizens, is crumbling. So is the American myth of a classless society where everyone can get rich and we all play by the same rules.

It was Sanders’ second best moment during the debate (his first being his apology to Clinton that all his supporters and his campaign should take a cue on). I liked Hillary’s answer and I liked Sander’s answer. Hillary’s answer was perfect for the general election. Sander’s wasn’t, but he and his supporters don’t really care.

The Democratic Primary, and the Republican Primary really, are a showcase of the two theories of electoral politics. The first is that you need to moderate your rhetoric and/or positions in order to appeal to as many voters as possible in order to win a general election. The second says screw that, appeal solely to your base of support so that you can turn out as many of those supporters as possible. After George W. Bush and Karl Rove, the Republicans have fully embraced the second theory. They are constantly seeking the more and more conservative candidate.

Many progressive Democrats likewise want the Democrats to pursue the second theory, positing that there are more of us than them, them being non-progressives. I personally would choose a combination of the two: appealing to your base of support with policies and moderates with rhetoric describing your policies. And that is what I feel Hillary is doing.

E.J. Dionne Jr. asks “Which political party loves America?”

Not the United States that once existed, but the flesh-and-blood nation that we live in now. The debates we have witnessed — too few and far between for the Democrats, frequent enough for the Republicans to constitute a new reality TV show — have provided an incontestable answer to that question.

The Democrats embrace the United States of Now in all of its raucous diversity. Democrats are not free of nostalgia. They long for the more economically equal America of decades ago and celebrate liberalism’s heydays during the New Deal and civil rights years.

Republicans hate America and Americans. Indeed, that reminds of this…

Rebecca Traister called the behavior of the moderators “maddening” during the third Democratic Debate Saturday night:

This is the third debate in which there have been no questions acknowledging the national crisis in reproductive care; tonight, as in the other debates, Clinton reflexively mentioned efforts to defund Planned Parenthood, and Sanders briefly acknowledged the mass shooting that recently took place at a Planned Parenthood clinic.

But instead of making inquiries about anything so real as limited access to abortion and birth control services, especially for poor women and women of color, Raddatz made the mind-boggling choice to ask about the candidates’ spouses, beginning, of course, with Hillary. Since First Ladies have traditionally played hostess and dealt with domestic responsibilities, Raddatz began — in what felt like a slow-motion car crash of a query — what role would Clinton’s husband Bill play?

The degree to which this question sucked is hard to describe.

David Ignatius on why, no matter what he says, President Obama can’t seem to calm down people who are determined to Not Be Calm.

Obama’s speech was a homily to American values. He welcomed new citizens from 25 countries to the fellowship defined by our Constitution and Bill of Rights: “You don’t look alike. You don’t worship the same way. But here, surrounded by the very documents whose values bind us together as one people, you’ve raised your hand and sworn a sacred oath.”

Obama delivered a blunt message to those who are embracing Donald Trump’s counternarrative of nativism and intolerance: “The truth is, being an American is hard. Being part of a democratic government is hard. Being a citizen is hard. It is a challenge. It’s supposed to be. There’s no respite from our ideals. All of us are called to live up to our expectations for ourselves — not just when it’s convenient, but when it’s inconvenient. When it’s tough. When we’re afraid.”

As Obama prepares to begin the last year of his presidency, he stands in an unusual position on the national stage: He is the rationalist, a creature of intellect rather than emotion. Dry as a bone, often disdainful of politics, averse to selling his policies (and also not very good at it), he is sometimes his own worst enemy. But compared with our other recent two-term presidents who stumbled as they neared the finish line, Obama seems to be gaining strength.

Reason vs. rhetoric. Logic vs. Fear.

Politico: “Hillary’s Clinton’s team is genuinely jittery about the sneak peek taken by Bernie Sanders staffers into their secret voter file. The unauthorized fishing expedition into the database housing the names and demographic information of voters Clinton plans to target – which led to the sacking of a top Sanders staffer and the suspension of two more — has embittered the campaigns against one another, even if the two principals made nice on the debate stage Saturday night.”

Right now, the polling average and the conventional wisdom says Bernie Sanders is likely to win New Hampshire given his lead there. Martin Longman says, well, don’t count on that.

As a warning, however, I remember when Bill Bradley was similarly well-positioned to win New Hampshire before he got his clock cleaned in Iowa and his advantage disappeared overnight. I think it’s probable that Sanders would win the primary if it was held next week, but the race there is tight and probably fluid enough that Iowa could flip things against Sanders.

And Iowa is looking pretty bad for Sanders right now, mainly because Clinton is consistently polling over 50% in a three-way race.

Stuart Rothenberg writes at Rothenblog that “While 81 percent of Democrats responded that they had a positive view of their own party in the late October 2015 survey, only 65 percent of Republicans had a positive view of their party. And while only 5 percent of Democrats had a negative view of the Democratic Party, a considerable three times that of Republicans, 15 percent, had a negative view of the GOP…And among independents, whom you probably assumed were the decisive group? More independents did have a more positive view of the Democratic Party than the GOP (24 percent to 15 percent), but neither number was very good. And just as important, independents had almost identical negative views of the two parties, with 38 percent having a negative view of the Democratic Party and 40 percent having a negative view of the GOP…Just as I reported in that March 2014 column, the Republican brand is now dramatically worse than the Democratic brand because Republicans have a much more negative view of their party than Democrats have of theirs.”

“Christian conservative activists whose support has been hotly pursued by Republican presidential candidates have begun to quietly coalesce around Sen. Ted Cruz — a major boost for his efforts to present himself as the leading challenger to front-runner Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.

“Members of this core GOP constituency have long been torn between several favorites in the party’s crowded field. But many organization leaders have decided in recent days to line up behind Cruz because they consider him the best-funded and most electable social conservative in the race… He won the backing of a key evangelical coalition after a secret Dec. 7 meeting in which top national activists agreed to roll out a stream of endorsements, many timed for maximum impact between now and March 1, Super Tuesday.”

David Wasserman on the GOP’s diploma divide: “The latest polls of the Republican presidential primary show a party badly divided by education: Donald Trump’s strong showings are entirely attributable to huge leads among voters without a college degree, while voters with a degree are split among several candidates.”

“But the Republican Party’s ‘diploma divide’ isn’t new: It was central to the 2012 race, with roles reversed. That year, Mitt Romney’s nomination was attributable to GOP voters with college degrees, while voters without a college degree were split. Ultimately, the 2016 race may come down to which side of the diploma divide unites the fastest and most thoroughly once voting begins.”

“Donald Trump is like that stray dog anybody can pet and it will follow you home. Putin praises him so he loves Putin. It’s embarrassing and sad. He’s a seriously damaged individual who is deeply insecure and needs attention and praise and the source doesn’t matter.” — GOP strategist Stuart Stevens, quoted by Politico.