Wednesday Open Thread [3.23.16]
National—Quinnipiac–Trump 43, Cruz 29, Kasich 16
National—Quinnipiac–Clinton 50, Sanders 38
Hillary Clinton won Arizona last night 58-40, while Bernie Sanders won Idaho and Utah by margins of 78-21 and 79-20, respectively. The blowout margins in Utah and Idaho means that Sanders, for the first time in a long time, gains in net delegates, closing the gap with Clinton by 6 delegates. On the night, Hillary wins at least 41 delegates in Arizona and 5 a piece in Idaho and Utah. Bernie gains 22 delegates in Arizona, and 18 and 17 in Utah and Idaho. Clinton still leads Sanders by over 300 delegates.
Doug Sosnik: “Until now, Trump has defied the laws of political gravity; but the fact that no major political party has ever nominated such an unpopular candidate for president is inescapable. The strategy that Trump used to appeal to Republican primary voters who are conservative and disproportionately white will work against him with the moderate, diverse electorate this November. It is difficult to understate the level of negative attitudes toward Trump.”
“Regardless of how you do the math, the current environment paints a picture of a Republican Party at the verge of implosion during the most critical period in the presidential campaign. Assuming little changes, years from now people will look back at the decisive nine-day period in mid-October last fall when the stage was set for the 2016 elections. In this narrow window, Hillary Clinton soundly routed Bernie Sanders in the first and single most important Democratic debate of the season, Vice President Biden announced that he wouldn’t run for president and Clinton publicly demonstrated her strength and fortitude during 11 hours of testimony in front of the House Select Committee on Benghazi—a hearing that resembled a Kangaroo Court.”
“Meanwhile, loudly and in full view, sitting high atop the polls facing little or no resistance, Donald Trump was gathering steam toward the Republican nomination and a backward-looking Republican Party was gasping its last breath. And the same Republican Party that once viewed Trump as a laughingstock is now intent on undermining his candidacy.”
Steve Waldman says something that I have half agree with when talking about both male and female politicians and how shouting makes them sound:
Truth is, most politicians in the television age – male or female — sound worse when they shout. Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis sounded absurd, like weak men struggling to be heard. Howard Dean became (unfairly) famous for a shout-burst. By contrast, the most effective moments during Bill Clinton’s speeches come when he gets intimate. Ronald Reagan understood that when you’re on TV – whether in a studio or via a speech – you’re entering someone’s living room. Even Donald Trump delivers some of his most extreme lines in a matter-of-fact conversational tone. […]
But with Hillary, it’s not even close: she sounds strong, smart and effective when she talks softly. When she shouts, Hillary sounds like she’s trying too hard to be a bellowing populist, something she’s not. So if she discounts this criticism as being mere sexism she’ll be ignoring some sound advice.
I think she sounds fine shouting, but when she speaks regularly or “softly” she sounds not only strong, but in command.
Washington Post: “There’s never been a presidential candidate like Donald Trump — someone so cavalier about the facts and so unwilling to ever admit error, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. At last count, nearly 65 percent (17 of 27) of our rulings of his statements turned out to be Four Pinocchios, our worst rating. By contrast, most politicians tend to earn Four Pinocchios 10 to 20 percent of the time. (Moreover, most of the remaining ratings for Trump are Three Pinocchios.)”
Rick Klein: “To know him is to love him or to hate him – and Republicans look likely to do some of both when it comes to Donald Trump, in the latest round of voting. Tuesday’s voting, in neighboring Arizona and Utah, appears likely to tell the GOP’s divide. Border-conscious and senior-heavy Arizona – home to Sheriff Joe Arpaio – seems poised to deliver all its delegates to Trump. Deeply religious and more pro-immigrant Utah – home to Mitt Romney – is likely to reject Trump overwhelmingly, with Ted Cruz in striking distance of turning the state into a winner-take-all.”
“Trump is likely to walk away with the most delegates from the day, again. But the day figures to provide little to no clarity, beyond revealing the disparate faces of the GOP of 2016. No players will be able to declare clean victories, and the long, ugly slog of the nominating race will continue.”
Speaker Paul Ryan is giving a speech today about the state of American politics and some are speculating that he just might offer himself up as a consensus candidate at the convention, but I highly doubt that. Regardless, should Ryan be the nominee, he would still lose to Hillary 43-35 according to Morning Consult.
Your Republican frontrunners:
Lyin' Ted Cruz just used a picture of Melania from a G.Q. shoot in his ad. Be careful, Lyin' Ted, or I will spill the beans on your wife!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 23, 2016
Pic of your wife not from us. Donald, if you try to attack Heidi, you're more of a coward than I thought. #classless https://t.co/0QpKSnjgnE
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) March 23, 2016
Hey, @tedcruz are our nearly 1k Muslim officers a "threat" too? It's hard to imagine a more incendiary, foolish statement
— J. Peter Donald (@JPeterDonald) March 23, 2016
That’s the spokesman for the New York Police Department. This is in response to Ted Cruz’s statements yesterday that police should “patrol and secure” Muslim neighborhoods in response to the Belgium attacks. Good for Mr. Donald.
The GOP’s “Stop Trump” movement should be called the “Stop Pretending Trump Isn’t the Nominee” movement.
Sanders blow out wins that he is now, at least VP if not the nominee.
In a cagey political move, all nine of American Samoa’s delegates will be going o Cleveland as uncommitted. [Not that it matters because Trump is the nominee, but it is something for talking heads to talk about.]
Christine O’Donnell (accidentally?) making some sense on CNN.
It feels like Déjà vu. Nope. Sorry. Hillary should not pick Sanders as VP – just like Obama didn’t pick Hillary, despite the same sort of commentary. She should pick someone young and Hispanic… and, yeah, male. We haven’t reached the point where two women on the ticket would fly. I hated writing that sentence, but my gut tells me it’s true. Altho… this year who knows!
Sanders will not be the nominee, and he will not be the VP. I was saving this for tomorrow, but what the hell:
Ed Kilgore says the absolute peak of the Sanders campaign will come this weekend with caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington. But…
To win the nomination, Bernie will need to win California, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut by margins of 70-30. If he doesn’t he won’t be the nominee. Simple as that.
And Sanders as VP adds nothing to Hillary’s campaign. She doesn’t need him to win over Progressives and millennials. Further, why would he want the job? He would be much more effective as a Senator, with the independence to criticize President Hillary Clinton when he wants to. As VP, he will be muzzled forever.
Pandora, the only woman I would want Hillary to pick is Warren, and that ticket could work. But like Sanders, she would be more effective in the Senate.
My esteemed colleagues DD and Pandora (like all Democratic Establishment types everywhere) appear to be longing for 1988.
The Al Gore/John Kerry strategy of shooting for “50% plus 1” by heavily targeting one or two “swing districts” in Ohio with beige “centrism” is not going to cut it this year, and never really cut it anyway.
I prefer the Obama strategy of trying to win all the votes everywhere.
Clinton does need Sanders to win the under 40 vote. Not necessarily on the ticket, but certainly stumping for her. A place in the cabinet… perhaps Treasury… would be a fantastic palce for him, (although i know that doesn’t happen till later) and a good way for her to show good faith to everyone who is… “enamored with Sander’s single issue candidacy.”
I agree that Sanders or Warren on the ticket would significantly cut their power. Warrens should spend a lot more time beating up bankers in the Senate. If she isnt majority leader by the end of Clinton’s second term, she’d made a good replacement for The Notorious RBG (who will have earned a long at happy retirement at that point).
We also need to start building for a future, and a young progressive diverse VP candidate would do just that. Two 70 year old white candidates is not exactly screaming “we are the party of the future” in spite of Sanders’ appeal to younger voters.
so.. Corey Booker or Julian Castro.
“VP Corey ANYTHING” sounds like a frat-boy villain in an 80’s movie about freshman year.
“I think she sounds fine shouting”
Really? Would you program that into your GPS?
A Sanders GPS would only make left turns 🙂
.
LOL, Mike!
FYI: I am so over the voice thing. None of them (D or R candidates) have a good voice – except, maybe, Ben Carson. Altho, falling asleep while driving wouldn’t be good.
Several things about the snippets that DD provides above stand out:
Sosnik: the fact that no major political party has ever nominated such an unpopular candidate for president is inescapable. And yet, if Trump were not running, with his 57% unfavorable rating, Sosnik would have to be saying the same thing about Clinton’s 52% unfavorable rating (CBS). In March 2008 both Clinton and Obama shared a tie for highest unfavorable rating by serious presidential candidates at that point … 41%. So Clnton’s unfavorables have gone up by 11% in the intervening eight years!?
Also Sosnik: Clinton publicly demonstrated her strength and fortitude during 11 hours of testimony in front of the House Select Committee on Benghazi—a hearing that resembled a Kangaroo Court. Only the already politically committed on either side of the spectrum know or care about this; literally nobody voting in November will be thinking, “Man, Hillary’s coolness under pressure at the Benghazi hearings got my vote, by damn.”
Waldman: When she shouts, Hillary sounds like she’s trying too hard to be a bellowing populist, something she’s not. So if she discounts this criticism as being mere sexism she’ll be ignoring some sound advice. This is horse shit. Hillary cannot allow herself to be defined by thinking like this, and I don’t think that’s the problem, anyway. My problem with Hillary shouting is not that she’s a woman shouting, but that her shouting feels scripted (Teleprompter: start shouting now). Hillary being cool, calm, and collected sounds real; from all reports when Hillary really gets pissed in private she has a sailor’s vocabulary, so when she shouts on the campaign trail to me it feels … forced … and restricted. I’d actually respond better if she started cursing, but I realize that’s just me.
I think Clinton will and should pick whoever will help the ticket in order to win. Considering there are many qualified, personable, smart people around the nation, she should be able to find someone that will help her.
In fact, I would pick someone who is Hispanic and bilingual even if people would criticize the choice as pandering. I don’t care. Hispanics have a long history in the US as well as a large presence. The smart money would find someone who can share some of that cultural heritage. Plus, you know margaritas and carne asada in the White House. Clinton likes spicy food. A match made below the border!
I think that Presidential candidates being upside down on the favorability ratings is going to be a feature, not a bug any longer. That’s a function of the non-stop media bullshit, that seems to feature the oppo research of the day. The media narrative on HRC is largely negative and I don’t doubt that the new found Clinton Derangement Syndrome on the right and a part of the left is helping.
Clinton publicly demonstrated her strength and fortitude during 11 hours of testimony in front of the House Select Committee on Benghazi
I didn’t see all of this, but what I saw of her here *was* impressive. If her folks don’t create an ad using this material, they should be sued for malpractice.
For the record, I would not program any of their voices into a GPS if I had a GPS. On the other hand, some people use Bob Dylan’s voice on their GPS, so it’s obviously a matter of taste. I just can’t stand people saying bullshit things like “I think she sounds fine shouting.” Really? You like shit sandwiches, too? If you prefer I can just post “I call bullshit,” but that’s so 2004.
Very few people sound good shouting. The only way to sound good at high decibel levels is to bellow rather than shout, and even as a male one needs a deep voice for that.
When they’re complaining about your tone of voice, it’s because they can’t say anything to refute what you’re saying.
But, again, I make these comments because I can’t stand what a sanctimonious ass Del Dem is about his fave candidate. Even if he DOES think she sounds fine shouting, lots of other people don’t. Denial is not a strategy.
Also, Cassandra is right. Decent advisers (which I’m not sure she has) should already have produced an ad showing the GOP’s useless flailing and her steady demeanor at that hearing. What Steve said about only junkies following this stuff is true of almost everything until it’s in a political ad.
LOL. Sanctimonious ass. That is how I feel about purity troll Berniebros.
I thought a Berniebro was someone who used sexism and misogyny to attack Hillary. “Purity troll” is a slur used by Hillary supporters to attack Sanders supporters who have policy differences with Hillary.
The issue is your attitude, not mine. You’re the one who has to lie to make his points.
And my apologies for not adding the “hole” to your title.
@AAA Decent advisers (which I’m not sure she has) should already have produced an ad showing the GOP’s useless flailing and her steady demeanor at that hearing.
I wouldn’t. All that would do is re-introduce the non-issue of “Banghazi” to a voting populace that knows literally nothing about it. I can see the Trump/Cruz response now: “Yep, footage showing Hillary boldly lying about how her mismanagement allowed four brave Americans to be killed in Benghazi. For details about the Hillary cover-up, go to …”
One of the rules of political advertising has to be, don’t mention your opponents’ hair-brained attack points unless they do.
Who says you put their attack points in the ad? You air their insults, not their attack points.
And if there’s anything the public is sicker of hearing about than her emails, it’s “Benghazi.” Everybody already knows about that one, and the only people who hate her for it will vote for Trump anyway.
And the general public has heard of it. You vastly underestimate the amount of GOP/Fox bullshit that gets into the political bloodstream. That’s why her negatives are so high and have increased so much since she left the office (almost four years ago now). Remember, acknowledging that success is why Ryan is speaker instead of McCarthy.
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/258940-after-benghazi-hearing-polling-up-for-clinton-emails
Good point, Steve. But I do think that a skilled editor and writer can just as easily spin some footage to show just how presidential she was in the face of the GOP lies, misogyny and all around wingnuttery. This wouldn’t have to be a TV ad, either — this might be the kind of thing to put on the internet and let it get shared everywhere.
Still — there may be better examples of HRC leaving a GOP battlefield taller then when she started.
@DD: Pointing out Hillary’s shortcomings falls well short of making one a Berniebro, particularly when one is interested only in Bernie’s agenda rather than his candidacy.
Do all opponents require an epithet?
Stupid labels like you’d give to your pet
Whether Hill Shrills or Bernie Bros
Everyone surely knows
Our most childish needs must be met
there once was a “man” named Don Trump
who’s really a big steaming dump
His fans’ mouths, they do froth/ when he mentions a mosque
this fall, we’ll beat his white rump.
GPS voice: The Daleks: “Turn right, death to earth scum!”.
Merging on to Interstate I-95. IN 50 PATHETIC HUMAN UNITS OF MEASUREMENT, ACCELERATE! ACCELERATE!
The Trump GPS could be fun….”you missed the turn you loser! I can tell you, I know EXACTLY where we’re going….you’ll know when we get there…you’ll see….I’m the greatest direction-giver you’ve ever seen, believe me….there is no one who can give directions like I can…”
Well, aren’t you on a roll today!
everything is such crap, no recourse but to retreat into humor.
I am so stealing that Trump GPS app. I would never get to where I was going but it would be amazing, the best ever. People will come up to me and tell me how great it is.