Thursday Open Thread [8.18.16]
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Economist/YouGov–Clinton 41, Trump 35
COLORADO–PRESIDENT–Quinnipiac–Clinton 49, Trump 39
IOWA–PRESIDENT–Quinnipiac–Clinton 47, Trump 44
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT–Quinnipiac–Clinton 50, Trump 38
INDIANA–PRESIDENT–Monmouth–Trump 47, Clinton 36
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT–PPP–Trump 45, Clinton 42
The Baghdad Bob culture of the Trump campaign, and of the right wing in general, will bring much delicious crying on November 8.
First Read says Trump knows he is losing: “These kind of shake-ups don’t happen when a presidential campaign is winning. The last time we remember when such an overhaul took place so late in the game was back in 2004, when John Kerry made significant changes to his campaign team. And here’s the current reality for Trump: He’s trailing in national polls by an average of about seven points, per RealClearPolitics; he’s behind in almost every battleground-state poll we’ve seen, including our NBC/WSJ/Marist polls from last week; and he’s losing to Clinton in the NBC battleground map.”
Campaign shake-up signals that Trump will finish race on his own terms https://t.co/dIlNMcu0jQ
— Robert Costa (@costareports) August 17, 2016
E.J. Dionne Jr. at The Washington Post talks about what our Olympians can teach us about politics:
The 2016 campaign is one of the least uplifting examples of politics in our lifetimes. I place most of the blame for this on Donald Trump, although examples of campaigns that were universally regarded as uplifting are rare. Trump’s rise itself reflects a deep cynicism about politics that we have allowed to fester. He praises himself for not being a “politician,” even though that is exactly what he is. In his manipulation of resentments and his indifference to truth, he represents the worst traits we associate with the breed.
But Trump is, finally, a symptom of our impatience with and disrespect for the messy but essential work that politicians do — and the fact that we are badly out of practice when it comes to reconciling (as opposed to sharpening) our differences.
I truly hope that our great Olympians consider joining the political fray down the road. But in the short run, we citizens and our leaders need to work as hard at the skills of self-rule as they do at their strokes, kicks, floor routines and overall fitness. We admire them for respecting the integrity of what they do. We need the same attitude toward politics.
If Trump loses big, how many GOP House members and legislators might go down with him? New at @FiveThirtyEight. https://t.co/QCgd2Eyybf
— Seth Masket (@smotus) August 17, 2016
David Atkins says that, as Trump’s Chances Dwindle, In Come the Conservative Fantasy Peddlers:
One of the curious hallmarks of modern conservative culture is the stubborn adherence to ideology and “known truths” even in the face of obvious evidence to the contrary. A half century ago the stereotype was that liberals were the starry-eyed purveyors of untested ideologies and assertions about the essential goodness of human nature, even as conservatives played the role of sober grandfathers who tempered liberal passions with doses of reality. This was never really the case even back then, but it was much closer to the truth than it is now.
Today, it is Republicans whose assertions about the nature of world consistently meet with rejection by reality. Supply-side economics is a proven failure. Climate change is real. Abstinence education doesn’t work. Giving money to the underprivileged doesn’t make them lazy, but rather strengthens the entire community. Tax cuts don’t spur growth, especially when given to the wealthy. Letting gay people get married doesn’t bring down God’s wrath on the nation. Wall Street doesn’t function well when it’s allowed to regulate itself. Letting the private insurance market dictate healthcare costs leads to worse outcomes. And so on.
Faced with these dilemmas, conservatives choose not to adjust to reality, but rather to ever more loudly assert the rightness of their ideological position. Liberals, on the other hand, have largely been chastened by the historical failures in implementation of state Marxism to apply a “use what works” mantra in picking whatever methods can be scientifically proven to lead to fairer outcomes.
The left's misplaced fears over Clinton's #NeverTrump outreach. https://t.co/60pyiv1wuO
— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) August 17, 2016
Remember Reagan Democrats? They were conservative working class whites who abandoned the Democratic Party for Reagan. We may be now witnessing the creation of Hillary Republicans, in that we are seeing college educated moderate whites who for some reason have long identified as Republicans now abandoning the GOP for Hillary. Nancy LeTourneau:
First of all, Donald Trump’s presidential nomination didn’t simply spring up out of whole cloth. As I pointed out yesterday, it has it’s roots in the Republican’s Southern Strategy, combined with their recent use of racism and nativism to stir up their efforts to de-legitimize the presidency of Barack Obama. The Republican embrace of post-policy paved the way for the candidacy of Donald Trump. Will they continue that strategy after he loses? That remains to be seen. But they’ve stirred up his supporters – who aren’t likely to go away once this election is over. In other words, the great Republican divide will still be with us after November. How that will affect the party affiliation of white college-educated voters is something to keep an eye on.
Next time, GOP should try nominating a solid family man with a business background who also spent time as a moderate blue state politician.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) August 17, 2016
Jeet Heersays that if Donald Trump is going to lose, he is going to take the entire GOP down with him. That is fine by me.
[T]here is one Biblical champion that Trump resembles closely: the mighty hewn Samson. Like Trump, Samson was famous for his hair, fought against foreign domination of his nation, was quick to vengeful anger, and had a weakness for female beauty.
But for Republicans, there’s one aspect of the Samson analogy that should be particularly worrying. When Samson was captured by the Philistines, he pulled down the pillars of their temple, preferring to die while destroying his tormentors rather than live in captivity. If Trump feels trapped by his alliance with the Republican Party, he may very well unleash the Samson Option, going down in a glorious defeat that takes the GOP with him.
The Samson Option has emerged as a hypothetical scenario because the Republican National Committee is considering scissoring Trump’s purse strings. As Politico reported yesterday, “Publicly, Republican Party officials continue to stand by Donald Trump. Privately, at the highest levels, party leaders have started talking about cutting off support to Trump in October and redirecting cash to save endangered congressional majorities.” Chatter about a divorce has also been fueled by a letter from more than 70 Republican politicians and strategists calling on the RNC to abandon Trump and focus on down-ballot races.
While severing financial ties to Trump might make sense as triage for a party trying to save as many candidates as possible during an electoral slaughter, it carries a significant risk. Trump already has only minimal loyalty to the GOP. Unlike most politicians, he has no need for the party in his post-election career. He is in a position to wreck retribution on the party, destroying it from within if he feels betrayed.
What Michael Steele says is “the Achilles heel of the modern-day Republican Party” https://t.co/cVxM7AJaiN
— Jonathan Capehart (@CapehartJ) August 17, 2016
Perhaps you heard that Mein Fuhrer Trump is announcing an ideological test for immigrants who want to enter this country.
Trump is also expected to propose creating a new, ideological test for admission to the country that would assess a candidate’s stances on issues like religious freedom, gender equality and gay rights. Through questionnaires, searching social media, interviewing friends and family or other means, applicants would be vetted to see whether they support American values like tolerance and pluralism.
Now, I wonder what the right answers are? I assume Trump’s answers would favor religious freedom, gender equality and gay rights because he assumes all Muslims are against them, or at list the strident ideological extremists are. But would his own Republican Party pass that test?
Harry Reid, ever the Senate Troll Master, wonders if Donald could pass his own test, or any Citizenship Test.
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) thinks Donald Trump needs to take a test before he is elected president…
“Since Donald Trump wants to impose new tests on immigrants, he should take the one test every immigrant has to pass to become a United States citizen. He would almost certainly fail, given his general ignorance and weak grasp of basic facts about American history, principles and functioning of our government,” Reid said. “The fact is, Donald Trump is nothing more than a spoiled, unpatriotic drain on society who has earned nothing and helped no one.”
Downticket GOP is freaking out about Trump’s hire of Breitbart exec. Note some of the quotes are attributed to anonymous Repub officials who have already endorsed Trump:
The campaign shake up means Trump is not pivoting, but doubling down on racist white supremacy and outrageous daily statements. That means complete disaster for all Republicans everywhere.
I’m thinking it’s safe for me to vote for Jill Stein
How long will Carper, Coons, Carney be able to go on touting bipartisanship?
No it’s not. If you want Trump to be obliterated, everyone must vote for Hillary. For Trump and Trumpism to be obliterated not only in the media’s mind, but also in their mind, we need outrageous margins we have not seen since 1964. 65-35. 70-30. Yes, even in Safe Democratic Delaware.
But whatever, go vote Stein. But realize, by voting for Stein you make yourself irrelevant for the next four years. You don’t build coalitions and allies by leaving coalitions and betraying allies.
Here is what I don’t get about the extreme left. In my limited experience, Green Party People tend to prize ideological rigidity in a way that is anti-democratic and obviously self-defeating.
In the very same way that Republicans cleave to supply-side economics even though it is a proven failure, deny climate change, claim that abstinence education works, etc. Green Party people willfully operate under the delusion that their rigidity (and its continuing failure) is a virtue. That somehow, in spite of all the evidence, rigidity will win out. The human animal is a group animal that thrives on social interactions. We prizes stories of growth and change, and love discussions, compromise and togetherness. The tenacity that Greens put into isolating themselves from normal political discourse is simply odd. I think it must be evidence of something, but what?
Diminished intelligence? Childhood trauma? Who knows? But I wish we had people who were both politically leftists and not so eager to opt out of the system and live the lives of political hermits and shut ins.
I don’t think Mouse is a Green Party member. He/she is just voting for Stein because they cannot support Hillary.
From last night’s reading. File under “Nothing new under the sun.”
“[William Tecumseh] Sherman took part in the funeral of President Taylor as a mounted aide. ‘Hardly was General Taylor decently buried in the Congressional Cemetery,’ he [Sherman] recalled, ‘when the political struggle recommenced.’ He seized the occasion to again advise [his] brother John against the life of a politician, writing in July [1850]: ’I hope the political history of the past year will make a strong impression on your mind not to seek honors or distinction through that channel.’ His perspective is understandable. The history of the past year had been tense, emotional and raucous. Hot-tempered representatives sometimes expressed themselves in unacceptable language, and fistfights actually broke out on the floor of Congress. Both senators from Mississippi engaged spectacularly in unbecoming behavior. Henry S. Foote brandished a loaded revolver during a passionate debate in the Senate, while Jefferson Davis ‘invited’ Congressman William Bissell of Illinois to meet him somewhere outside the District of Columbia to settle a dispute – clearly a challenge to a duel (which was illegal). Cooler heads finally managed to avert that confrontation.”
-McDonough, James Lee, ‘William Tecumseh Sherman; In the Service of My Country,’ (W.W. Norton & Co., 2016), pg. 152
Actually, mouse is just looking for attention.
“How long will Carper, Coons, Carney be able to go on touting bipartisanship?”
Until people stop telling pollsters that’s what they want. The 3 C’s say that because people say they’re sick of the squabbling in Washington, and our boys think that means “don’t upset the Republicans.”
In short, they’re doing what they hear the people say they want. Put all three of them together and you still don’t have a full set of balls.
“But realize, by voting for Stein you make yourself irrelevant for the next four years.”
Really? And here I thought we cast our ballots in secret….
I hate to break this to you, but as far as Washington is concerned, we’re irrelevant, period. You’re not going to get special attention because you voted for the winner.
The only suspense left in this election is how much down-ballot damage Trump will cause. My focus is not on destroying the GOP itself but rather the destructive belief system of movement conservatism. The entire science-denial trend started with their economics. When reality didn’t match the predictions, it was reality, not the predictions, that had to change. Even after Kansas (and Louisiana, and Wisconsin) they believe that claptrap.
Or do they? This Ian Millhauser piece looks at the polling numbers, and finds that only a minority of Republicans support Paul Ryan’s budget proposals. The only GOP group that gives it above 50% approval is the $250,000+ plus crowd.
In short, now that the base has been told it’s OK to say out loud what they used to dog-whistle, it’s going to be difficult to placate them with the thin gruel of shovel-up economics.
https://thinkprogress.org/why-trump-can-bully-paul-ryan-and-get-away-with-it-in-one-chart-a9f56fb95ba2#.fnzyzkknx
I’m a boy mouse. It’s kind of that I don’t really like her personally and see her fostering the same old policies of hegemony for the 1% and the war pigs and I’m not digging the status quo. I’m not really into political parties. The dems have hosed delaware. There’s really no good choice I can be enthaustic about
And I do attention, especially from girls. I’m still on the fence. I think it’s a very reasonable place to be all things considered. Not sure what it has to do with me wanting attention though. Or is that some kind of attack to shame me into the status quo lol
” If you want Trump to be obliterated, everyone must vote for Hillary. ”
It’s hard to have a country like ours without an aberration or two cropping up every hundred years or so. If he is an aberration, then when he loses handily, everyone can go about their business and feel relieved that they dodged a bullet.
I believe that Trump is not an aberration. Rather, he is a manifestation and he needs to be completely and thoroughly repudiated. If not, the risk is that the abstract ideas that embody the Trump candidacy, are not as abstract as we want and need them to be. What he stands for cannot be given any traction whatsoever.
In science (including social science) and engineering we employ extreme cases as a methodology to test theories. While Trump is not an experiment, he certainly is an extreme case. And this particular extreme case is here and now.
Petulantism, by those who take a purist approach this election, dismisses the forces that actively seek to undermine the nation by labeling them fringe players, who once they are beaten will simply disappear, their voices reduced to a faint murmur. They perceive their actions, whether it’s seizing federal property, grazing cattle, shooting people in church, and playing constitutional sheriff, as aberrations by small minded people who will eventually fade away.
I am not usually disposed to hyperbole and I believe that this is a civil war. A war for the heart and soul of our nation. It is not being fought on battlefields by armies, but it is being fought at the ballot box, in the media, in legislative houses, and in communities, by those who hold deeply contrasting values and principles about who we are as a people and a society.
Someone famous said it better than I: “Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.” Trump is our test, the extreme case testing whether we will endure.
Never before have I felt this strongly about an election and the outcome. It has always been the lesser of two “evils,” who will do the least harm, who will provide the greatest stability and steady hand for incremental progress.
Not today. Not this year. Not this election. For me, November the 8th will be the most serious and most important vote I have ever cast in my life.
I completely agree, Dave, even though I am prone to hyperbole.
The Democrats need to be punished. They have sold out to the 1% and mostly have the same policies as the republicans outside of devisive social issues. There’s no one in the Dem leadership calling for the policies that Sanders professed and that’s where I am. If we keep voting for Democrats just because the republican are nasty nutcases, there’s no incentives for the Dems to do do anything except serve the people who pay
“My focus is not on destroying the GOP itself but rather the destructive belief system of movement conservatism. ”
If the GOP is destroyed there will still be plenty of destructive economic beliefs to go around, having been successfully implanted in Democrats. And I’m just talking about current Democrats, not counting the conservatives who will start running as Democrats once the GOP loses its electoral future.
A Democratic government will still be obstructed by conservatives, but the obstructionists will be other Democrats.
@puck: Probably true. That’s why I want the ideology, not just the GOP, destroyed.
Conservatives are opposed to things and stand for almost nothing
“The Democrats need to be punished.”
Given Trump, this comment demonstrates the problem. It’s like saying, “Should I vote for rescuing a drowning baby or having a ham sandwich?”
That said, I really can’t worry over who you’ll vote for. You still need (for some reason) to be convinced. And if you can’t see the difference between this election and other elections, I’m not sure what to say. Vote as you please, but constantly commenting on your indecision is asking us to persuade you. Like I said, if you can’t see the difference now then there’s no persuadable argument.
You also might want to come up with an answer for when you grandchildren asked who you voted for in 2016. 😉
good one, pandora.
Why do I always lose in interacteractions with women? It’s not a matter of convincing me. It’s obvious that voting for Clinton over Trump is the thing to do. My concern is do we vote for a status quo democrat or do we try to push the party into being more about average people, energy policy and jobs or do we just say well they are better than the nutty Republicans and keep voting the binary choice. I want clean renewable energy now in full force, I want to be out of endless middle east wars, I want to assure I can collect my social security before billionaires get more tax cuts, I want to be able to send my kid to college without her or I going into horrendous debt, I want a living wage job for my kid after we spend 100K for college and I want average and low skill Americans to live in dignity without having to collect welfare so Walmart et al can make billions in profits. I believe Clinton is not on board with any of these in a meaningful way so I am very conflicted about voting for her over Stein who is in my camp on all these issues. I know the arguments and what is at risk. I just need to decide what to do and it’s not an easy decision for me.
How does voting for Stein send this message? I never understand that reasoning. This tactic worked in the Dem primary (because it was, ya know, the Dem Primary), but how does voting for Stein (whose vote total will be minuscule) accomplish moving Ds leftward? Stein would have to win a huge percentage of votes to even be mentioned, right? More likely, Stein would be ignored and the narrative would be that Hillary didn’t win by a big enough margin so she has no mandate; that Stein and Johnson voters show that the D platform is too liberal – Trump was a problem candidate, but with Hillary not blowing him out of the water we need to be more moderate. We’ve seen this before.
And while you are answering pandora’s question — I am wondering how someone who is on the ballot in about half of the states can win anything (or more appropriately, damage Clinton) when she’s not in a position to capture any electoral votes.
I voted for Perot/Stockdale. Ticket got nearly 20,000,000 votes and impacted absolutely zero. Let’s not pretend voting Green or staying home sends any kind of message. I understand the theory and that’s fine. I respect it ideologically also. But it won’t do what you think it’ll do. It’s like calling a coin toss “edge.”
Look, I’m not bragging about it. In fact I’m not necessarily proud of my decision this time round, but you’re not voting for a moral messiah are you? You’re voting for President of the United States. I don’t particular like HR Clinton. Who cares?
This is the conclusion I’ve come to, so, just vote for the regular person who can run the executive branch, shame the orange TV clown and move on.
Everybody treats one presidential vote every four years like a fucking test of their personal ethics and morality. It isn’t.
“Everybody treats one presidential vote every four years like a fucking test of their personal ethics and morality. It isn’t.”
Exactly.
“I know the arguments and what is at risk. ”
If you know the arguments and what is at risk, then you either suffer from paralysis by analysis or have a decision framework that is not data driven.
Trump and his supporters much be demonstratively and completely repudiated. The outcome must leave no room for doubt that he and his have been rejected by the nation. Consequently, the vote must be so overwhelming that it is self evident and not subject to debate.
If you do not accept that premise and conclusion then you will contribute nothing to the outcome. This election is not just about who wins the Presidency. It is about sending a message that Trump and Co. are not who we are.
You want to send a different message. You want to be the mouse that roared. I get it. But that’s not the battle being fought today. You and others want to make it a different battle but you don’t get that choice. It’s already been made. The only choice you get today is to tell the world that we are not Trump.
And make no mistake, the world needs to hear that. Our nation needs to hear that. Our people need to know that.
Well, I was thinking that maybe the Democratic leadership might think: Hey if we actually worked for average people instead of the 1% war machine and corporate contributors, we might have picked up that 5% of the vote that Stein took. I realize I may be wrong though. And I agree that this might be a special egress case with the carnival barking mouth piece for bigotry. I just want to move beyond we have to vote for the corporate Democrat to save the nation from the nasty Republican.
And I’m not even sure Trump is the problem. He’s a stooge channeling and parroting the worst prideful ignorance, bigotry, fear, dogma and hate possible. The angry white trash in this nation won’t be deterred by a humiliating defeat. They will say it was rigged or have some other BS to justify why the talk radio ideology was defeated. It is important to show the rest of the world we are not the white trash nation of Trump and his rubes though. I hate having women upset with me. I better re-evaluate again lol
Mouse, when the polls showed the percentage of the public being against the ACA did the press make a big deal about the percentage of people that said the ACA didn’t go far enough? Nope. Protest votes don’t send the message we hope they send.
And Dave’s correct. The entire world is watching us and they (as well as us) need to see us kicking Trump to the curb – soundly, with no room for debate.
Mouse, can I ask for a favor? My replies to you weren’t gendered. Can you cool it with the “women” comments? I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make with them.
mouse- if we operated under a parliament/coalition style government, then I’d tend to agree; 5% of the vote might get a major party’s attention. But we run on a plurality takes it all system. I say this as a fervent Berner who would much rather would have seen Sanders take the nomination. I’m still miffed about that, but I am also miffed that Trump and his ilk have commanded so much attention and garnered the GOP nomination. I can’t, no matter what or who I believe in, in good conscience and *knowing the type of electoral system we have in this country*, walk into a voting booth and side-step the opportunity to reject Trumpism outright.
Delaware will go to Clinton no matter what, but for me contributing to the size of the margin that breaks to Clinton is my way of telling Trumpism to GTFO and don’t come back. My ‘protest vote’ is voting down Trump and everything he stands for.
Of course, sorry if my comments were taken as sexist. Just been a tough week for me in that area and I was trying to myself laugh.
Sorry you’re having a bad week.
The whole “Trumph” movement is people are sick and tired of the status quo. People are just ignoring the Clinton foundation, taking money from foreign governments, which will influence our own elections. Now, I understand the audience that I’m talking to here, but people outside the US, are laughing at BOTH the candidates!!
It is a shame!
@Toa “The whole “Trumph” movement is people are sick and tired of the status quo.”
Do you really believe that? That is NOT who they are.
“Trump, hillbillies and race”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-hillbillies-and-race/2016/08/18/4a1606aa-656a-11e6-96c0-37533479f3f5_story.html
Most apropos line:
“The rage that is fueling the Trump phenomenon is … about a way of life under siege,…”
…and it’s a way of life that deserves to be cast to the dustbin of history.