Open Thread for Wednesday, September 28, 2016
A note on all this polling, it was all performed before the debate.
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Quinnipiac–CLINTON 47, Trump 46
NATIONAL–Monmouth–CLINTON 49, Trump 46
NATIONAL–NBC News/SM–CLINTON 51, Trump 44
PENNSYLVANIA–Harper–CLINTON 45, Trump 43
PENNSYLVANIA–Gravis–CLINTON 46, Trump 43
PENNSYLVANIA–Mercyhurst–CLINTON 42, Trump 41
FLORIDA–FL Chamber–CLINTON 45, Trump 42
MINNESOTA–KSTP/SurveyUSA–CLINTON 49, Trump 43
IOWA–Loras–CLINTON 42, TRUMP 42
NORTH CAROLINA–High Point–CLINTON 43, Trump 42
NORTH CAROLINA–Gravis–CLINTON 44, Trump 43
MASSACHUSETTS–UMass Amherst/WBZ–CLINTON 46, Trump 33
NEW YORK–NBC4/WSJ/Marist–CLINTON 52, Trump 31
OHIO–Ipsos–CLINTON 46, Trump 43
VIRGINIA–Ipsos–CLINTON 47, Trump 40
NORTH CAROLINA–Ipsos–CLINTON 49, Trump 43
FLORIDA–Ipsos–CLINTON 49, Trump 45
Politico: “As threats emanated from Trump Tower on Tuesday that the Republican nominee was preparing to name-check Bill Clinton’s mistresses — alleged or otherwise — Hillary Clinton’s aides and allies huddled hopefully in Brooklyn, eager for another opportunity to expose their opponent’s thin skin and rile up the female voters both campaigns need for the win.”
“Democrats know any resurfacing of Bill Clinton’s affairs can weigh their candidate down. But every time those sex scandals have come up, voters’ sympathy for Clinton has driven her poll numbers higher, and her team is counting on that again.”
The Arizona Republic endorsed a Democrat for the first time since the newspaper’s founding in 1890.
Clinton retains her composure under pressure. She’s tough. She doesn’t back down. Trump responds to criticism with the petulance of verbal spit wads.
That’s beneath our national dignity. When the president of the United States speaks, the world expects substance. Not a blistering tweet.
Former US Senator John Warner (R-Virginia) will also endorse Hillary.
First Read: “Maybe the most damaging part of last night’s debate for Trump was that it only extended the tax and birtherism stories, which are bound to come up again at the VP and second presidential debate over the next two weeks. On taxes, not only did Trump suggest that he’d release his taxes if Clinton releases her emails (so it’s not the audit after all?), he also seemed to admit that he indeed pays no taxes.”
“And on birtherism — Trump’s longstanding charge that President Obama wasn’t born in the United States and thus potentially illegitimate to be president — he (falsely) accused Clinton’s ’08 campaign of starting the issue. He also said he brought it to an end after getting Obama to produce his birth certificate. But he never apologized or explained what changed his mind (from 2011-2016 to two weeks ago) that Obama was indeed born in the U.S.”
Ed Kilgore asks what happens if the debate doesn’t move polls off the average +2-3 point lead Clinton has at the moment:
If Clinton does not make significant gains, we will have strong evidence that the best remaining strategy for her campaign is to focus on base mobilization — making sure her supporters get to the polls. That would be bad news for Clinton, but not devastating, because she has an advantage in the field operations and voter-targeting that are essential to getting out her vote.
There is also a weird dynamic at play with younger voters that might be hurting her, especially after tonight: Many left-leaning millennials seem to think Clinton’s already wrapped up the presidency, and are planning not to vote, or to cast a ballot for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Media gabbing about Clinton’s big win at Hofstra won’t exactly galvanize such voters to make a stand for HRC.
BuzzFeed: “Each time Hillary Clinton baited him, Trump reacted, resulting in a series of Trumpian moments that are sure to give the Democrats fresh ammunition against him with just a few weeks to go before Election Day.”
“When Clinton said he’d wanted to take advantage of the real estate crisis, he said that was ‘called business, by the way.’ He wouldn’t say if Russia is responsible for hacking Democratic email systems, instead raising the specter of a hypothetical 400-pound hacker. He said not paying federal income taxes ‘makes me smart.’ He defended not paying contractors who have worked on his properties. He rekindled a feud with Rosie O’Donnell, whose appearance he has insulted, saying she ‘deserves’ it. And he defended his long-running questioning of President Obama’s birthplace, arguing that he actually cleared up the controversy by getting Obama to release his birth certificate.”
“Trump, in other words, handed reinforcements to the Clinton campaign in several different areas: foreign policy, Trump’s treatment of women, his business dealings, and to what extent he pays taxes. Democrats in the post-debate spin room were openly celebrating the material Trump had handed them for future attack ads.”
Donald Trump insisted that Hillary Clinton did not get under his skin during their first debate and suggested that he may ‘hit her harder’ in their next encounter by raising the subject of former President Bill Clinton’s infidelities, the Washington Post reports.
Said Trump: “I really eased up because I didn’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings.”
John Fund asks if Trump realizes he choked: “Past presidential campaigns have often seen candidates recover from poor performances in the first debate. Ronald Reagan’s halting performance in the first debate in 1984 led to him delivering a devastating line in the second debate about taking advantage of Walter Mondale’s ‘youth and inexperience.’ George W. Bush blew his first debate with John Kerry in 2004, only to recover and win reelection. Barack Obama was rated the loser by two out of three CNN viewers in his first debate with Mitt Romney in 2012 and then staged a famous comeback.”
“But Donald Trump should realize the common denominator in all those success stories: Reagan, Bush, and Obama realized they had all “choked” (to use a favorite phrase of Trump’s) and prepared like hell for the next round.”
Donald Trump “failed to shore up support among suburban women — a key demographic that has been cool to him–by struggling to deflect Democrat Hillary Clinton’s attack on his treatment of women, strategists in the businessman’s own party said the morning after the first presidential debate,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Politico: “Overall, roughly 80 percent of insiders — with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans responding to the post-debate survey — said Clinton did the better job at the debate, including 99 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans. Only 21 percent — 1 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans — picked Trump as the winner.”
Donald Trump “lashed out wildly on Tuesday in the aftermath of a disappointing first debate with Hillary Clinton, scolding the moderator, criticizing a beauty pageant winner for her physique and raising the prospect of an all-out attack on Bill Clinton’s marital infidelities in the final stretch of the campaign,” the New York Times reports.
“Having worked assiduously in recent weeks to cultivate a more disciplined demeanor on the campaign trail, Mr. Trump decisively cast aside that approach on Tuesday morning.”
Washington Post: “Despite his apparent sniffles throughout the night, Trump said he did not have a cold or allergies. He blamed the noises on his microphone, which he said could not be heard well in the room.”
Donald Trump “beleaguered after an erratic performance in Monday’s debate — with viewership as high as 100 million — retreated to his Fox News and Twitter cocoon. There, he took potshots at debate moderator Lester Holt and cited unscientific Internet surveys to prove he’d outperformed Hillary Clinton. And his advisers hinted that he might consider skipping the next showdown between the candidates, set for Oct. 9 in St. Louis,” Politico reports.
“It was a scarcely concealed defensive posture from the Trump camp, which found itself defending Trump against accusations of sexism (even as he redoubled his criticism of a former Miss Universe he had previously called ‘Miss Piggy,’ saying on Tuesday she had gained ‘a massive amount of weight’). His surrogates, too, joined the pile-on against Holt, describing “hostile” questioning about his position on the Iraq War, his role in the birther controversy and his refusal to release his tax returns.”
In Trump’s childlike mind, Bill Clinton’s infidelities are a real game changer. An atomic bomb that will level the Clinton campaign. Is is possible that he doesn’t know that for 40 years, the Clintons have been trouncing people who went there?
Trump is a serial adulterer himself, which will surely come up if Trump goes there.
Denying he sniffled sums him up. It’s so stupid and easily disprovable. It also demonstrates why Trump behaves the way he does – Real men don’t have sniffles?
I’d like to say that it boggles my mind that “professional” campaign managers/strategists and a major party nominee think it’ll be a good idea to attack the wife for her husband’s infidelities… But of course it doesn’t boggle the mind and fits perfectly within the SOP for Trump.
Trump’s campaign managers are making a TON of money off of his campaign. They will ALL get jobs at Fox… or maybe the expended Breitbart media after this shitshow is over.
Let’s all pause for a moment and realize that this election won’t solve anything in this country.
Let’s all pause for a moment and realize that a majority of white Americans will vote for Donald Trump. That’s going to cause a major problem moving forward. Why should any minority trust any white person given that fact?
Anonymous, for the win…
Here’s an illustration of my contention that police are only nominally under civilian control:
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/louisiana-deputies-throw-tantrum-after-teen-football-players-protest-national-anthem/
If they want to pretend they’re military, perhaps they should have to take the same oaths member of the military do.
The mere act of saying they will not perform their duties should be grounds for dismissal.
I hope Hillary shows up at the next debate in the same pantsuit dyed in the blood of her vanquished enemies.
Trump was the bull and Hillary was the red cape. And Trump snorted, charged and played the part beautifully.
Attacking Hillary for her husbands indiscretions is a fools errand. You know Camp Hillary has already prepped a perfect focus group tested response for such an occasion.
25 Logical Reasons to Vote for Donald Trump
Anonymous,
I don’t think anyone here thinks this election will solve anything. I thought that in 2008, and again in 2012, but like any virus, the GOP keeps coming back. This is the problem with Democrats, liberals and ESPECIALLY progressives. Elections are not the end all be all FINAL BATTLE where after we win there are fireworks and then the movie credits roll. Nope. Elections are battles in the long war. You win an election to either advance or protect the territory you have. If you lose an election, you give up the ground you gained and are on the run. If you want to protect everything accomplished in the last eight years and earn the right to nominate at least three to four Supreme Court justices in the next two years, then you have to vote for Hillary Clinton.
@DD: It has nothing to do with politics. Politics is far too small an arena for what I’m talking about.
White America will vote for Trump. Think about that without using a political prism. What’s that say about White America’s relationship to white supremacy? What’s that say about White America’s willingness to accept Others as equals?
Did anyone watch Gary Johnson’s Town Hall tonight? Oh my. Another person walking onto a stage unprepared.
@B “Trump’s campaign managers are making a TON of money off of his campaign.”
But when he loses, he’ll claim that they didn’t do a good enough job and stiff them all.
I think Johnson’s VP candidate Weld said Clinton was qualified to be POTUS and Trump was not..
White America will vote for Trump.
Not all of White America. There is a committed to GOP slice of white america who have always been especially susceptible to the racist dog-whistling, the nationalism, and whatever other resentments a candidate can aggravate. This isn’t going to change because government changes. It will change when this group ages out and has much less influence.
So, there are no White Americans, that are Democrats that are racist?
“So, there are no White Americans, that are Democrats that are racist?”
Of course there are. We used to call them Reagan Democrats; now their children are voting for Trump.
@cassandra: It is a given that 60% of whites will vote Republican in any given presidential election. I realize that it’s more like 50% if you strip out the South, but Trump nevertheless will capture 60% of the white vote.
That means only 40% of White America does not believe in white supremacy.
“So, there are no White Americans, that are Democrats that are racist?”
In that case you are claiming that the percentage of whites who adhere to white supremacy is even higher. You must be so proud.
I am white. I am a Democrat. I am voting for Clinton. So is LiberalGeek, Nemski, Unstable Istope, Jason330, Brian, El Som, and Pandora. All white people. All Democrats or liberals. All Clinton supporters. This overgeneralization of the White vote needs to stop. It splits 60-40 for the GOP, even this year (because whatever gains are made among the white working class are being offset by losses among the college educated and professional whites).
@ aonymous. See, I’m not racist or into white supremacy.
“Well, I believe in the soul. The cxxk, the pxxxy, the small of a woman’s back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days. [pause] Goodnight.”
Crash Davis, Bull Durham
“This overgeneralization of the White vote needs to stop.”
Really? Why? When six out of 10 whites vote for a white supremacist, do you really think “just stop” is going to convince non-whites to trust us?
I’m white, too. But if I weren’t, wouldn’t my interactions with whites be poisoned by the fact that there’s a 3/5ths chance (ironic, isn’t it?) that the person I’m interacting with considers me inferior?
It made little difference that whites vote Republican when the only choice was a political one. This is different. If whites won’t reject a white supremacist candidate, they must approve of his position, no?
It must be made clear to white Republicans (as if there’s any other kind) that a vote for Trump is a vote for white supremacy. That’s what they’re endorsing. That makes them as guilty as he is.
@OA: A vote for Trump is a vote for white supremacy. This has been made exceedingly clear over the past few months.
This is definitely the year of the white (mostly male) voter – which, imo, are receiving far too much attention. But given the race and gender of the majority of our punditry I’m not surprised. The over-generalization of the white voter has been fostered by pundits stuck in the “both sides do it” (ex. Trump wasn’t prepared for the debate, but, on the other hand, Hillary was over-prepared) nonsense and the need to keep up the horse race.
“@OA: A vote for Trump is a vote for white supremacy. This has been made exceedingly clear over the past few months.”
This is exactly correct. Trump isn’t running on policies – and who knows what they are since they keep changing. Go speak with Trump supporters, the only Trump “policies” they discuss are bursting with every ism imaginable. It’s ugly – and out in the open. If you’re supporting Trump – everyone knows why.
@cassandra: It is a given that 60% of whites will vote Republican in any given presidential election. I realize that it’s more like 50% if you strip out the South, but Trump nevertheless will capture 60% of the white vote.
And white voters as a percentage of the electorate declines every year. According to the WaPo, Trump is overperforming (over Romney) in the white, working-class male vote only. Which explains why they are working so furiously to GOTV for white people in rust belt states. He is underperforming Romney in all other white voter categories.
Still, my only point is to note that as white voters decrease in (voting) number, the chance for America to make more fundamental change goes up. But more importantly, what this data tells me is that it is crucial for Democrats to address the economic insecurity and the sense that the system has gotten completely away from them that is the real problem of some of these voters.
@cassandra: I’m no longer so sure that the economics are the real problem. No matter what one’s economic worries, they shouldn’t make one despise Hillary Clinton, who did nothing to cause them that the Republicans didn’t do sooner and more (Clinton backed NAFTA, which had universal Republican support, as part of his Third Way strategy).
Granted, much of the hatred is the result of a 25-year propaganda campaign — most people, when challenged, can’t really come up with valid reasons for even dislike let alone hatred. And some, like me, when challenged realized that they are holding her responsible for her husband’s missteps (like NAFTA, the crime bill, etc.)
Yes, whites are decreasing as a percentage of the voting public. Eventually they will become a minority themselves — and let me predict right now that they will be the most troublesome minority group in the history of the US.
I guess what I’m saying is that I fear the aftermath of this election no matter what happens.
I’m not sure that economics are the real problem, either, except that if some of these folks had a reason to reduce their own economic (and even political) anxieties, they wouldn’t have as much motivation to indulge in the racist, sexist, isolationist, nationalist bullshit. A core group of these folks hated Barack Obama and still do. But both Hillary and Obama suffer from the propaganda campaign meant to undermine Democrats.
And some of these folks will just have all of this racial and sexist baggage. But there is no doubt in my mind that the current iteration of the GOP is a primary enabler if this stuff and they have been for decades. It is just now completely out in the open. And as long as the people the GOP look to for validation say that this behavior is OK, it won’t stop.
George Will writes about the Rise of Trump Indicating the Decay of America and I tell you that there wasn’t a single point in reading that where I didn’t think that the decay is largely on the conservative side of the equation and They Built That. On purpose.
Well, here’s the evidence, if anyone still needs it, of what’s behind Trump and Trumpism both:
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/29/1575870/-Shocking-video-of-Trump-explaining-his-dangerous-theory-that-people-like-him-have-superior-genes