Rest in Pieces Mr. and Mrs. “Centrist”

I have been saying that building a strong Democratic brand based on traditional Democratic values is the way to get rid of corrupt Republicanism. I’ved called out Democratic politicians claiming to be “moderates” and “centerists” as con artists trying to play both side of the street. Now the data is in and my wild-eyed liberal partisanship has been validated.

On a panel at a Chicago convention of political scientists recently, Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz explained what’s happening.

“Independents made up 35 percent of the 2006 voters, more than either Democrats or Republicans,” Mr. Abramowitz said, based on his analysis of data from the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. “But most of these independent identifiers were not true swing voters – most of them leaned toward one party or the other, and these leaning independents voted overwhelmingly for their preferred party.”

Mr. Abramowitz added this key point: “Moreover, Democratic leaners were just as liberal as other Democrats, and Republican leaners were just as conservative as other Republicans.”

Sure, millions of Americans refuse to register with either of the major parties, and they avoid the labels “liberal” or “conservative” to describe themselves ideologically. But what matters more than how they fill out registration forms at their county board of elections or define themselves when pollsters call is the policy opinions and attitudes they espouse and how those opinions translate into votes.

On that score, Mr. Abramowitz demonstrates that not only are liberals and conservatives voting more predictably for Democrats and Republicans, respectively, but their social and economic attitudes are becoming more internally consistent. He says it is easier today to predict, say, how a voter feels about stem cells based on her position on tax policy.

“To a much greater extent than in the past, voters’ opinions on economic, cultural and foreign policy issues are closely interconnected with Democrats overwhelmingly on the liberal side of almost every issue and Republicans overwhelmingly on the conservative side of almost every issue,” Mr. Abramowitz says.

What are the implications for this fundamental, potentially transformative shift in the American electorate?

For starters, the major parties’ appeals to centrist voters will become less effective and efficient, and should be de-emphasized in favor of a strategy that favors identifying and mobilizing base voters.