How John Carney Can Jump-Start His Term, Reinvigorate Democrats, and Win a Special Election–All With One Move.
So, we’re facing a Special Election for State Senate. The candidates, D Stephanie Hansen and R John Marino, have been chosen by their respective parties. The election has been necessitated due to incumbent Bethany Hall Long’s winning of the Lieutenant Governor spot. She takes office later in January. The date for the Special Election has not been set, and it’s not clear whether outgoing Gov. Markell or incoming Gov. Carney will set the date.
Barring an unexpected flip, the winner of this seat will determine which Party controls the Senate. The Republicans are motivated as they can end umpteen years of Democratic control of the State Senate. They will have no problem motivating their voters.
The Democrats? If you are a Democratic voter and aren’t necessarily plugged into the party structure, what will impel you to come out to vote? I know that some of the usual suspects on the blog are minimizing this concern, I think it’s real and I think it’s a major problem for the special. Why should D’s come out to support the D candidate other than out of some sense of duty?
Unless…now hang with me for a minute. I think we can most all agree that the succession of D governors from Carper to Minner to Markell and now to Carney have been more closely aligned with the State Chamber of Commerce than with the traditional Democratic rank-and-file. Minner might have been a bit of an exception, but she decided to sell out and turned her second term into an Insider’s Paradise.
What if John Carney, who has already coopted the Chamber, if not vise versa, comes in and says, “We have done so much for business, it is past time that we do something for those who go to work everyday and struggle to raise their families. I call for a meaningful minimum wage increase, one that also incorporates a cost-of-living increase annually. I will not rest until this bill is on my desk.”
He can then plant himself in the 10th SD, along with all the D surrogates and warn against how the R’s controlling the Senate chamber kills any chance that Delawareans have to experience an increase in their paltry, and it is paltry, minimum wage. In other words, stand up and fight for something that pretty much any self-respecting D can relate to.
Make the Special Election about something that D’s really care about. Make the Special a referendum on Democratic values, in this case, a decent wage, all the while highlighting why D’s stand with the people and the R’s stand with the moneyed elites.
It’s not that big a stretch. By doing this, John Carney jump-starts his term, achieves a meaningful victory right off the bat, reinvigorates a Democratic Party struggling with post-election depression, and helps win a Special Election that will keep the Senate in Democratic control. Oh, and thereby collects a bleepload of political capital. It’s simple.
All we need is for a Democratic governor to act like a Democrat. Otherwise, explain to me again what will motivate D’s to come out to vote. If a Democratic governor intends to pursue the Chamber’s agenda, it doesn’t really matter WHO controls the Senate. But if D’s are going to reconnect to the rank-and-file, Gov. Carney can make it happen solely by governing like a D from jump street.
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I don’t think this will happen, but I agree that it needs to. Or something like this needs to, in order for us to win this seat and keep the senate. The message, which the lead democrats seems to think is irrelevant, is lacking thus far. Marino’s message is what our message should be. A message of binging young people in and getting them engaged, a message of a struggling working and middle class, and a message of a corrupt government full of nepotism. The problem is, and you are right about this in your article, the don’t actually care about progressive solutions to some of these issues. They are not going to raise the min wage, more likely they will get rid of it. They don’t care about the plight of the middle class suffering at the hands of nepotistic vultures, they just want their slice of the pie. We need a message, despite what I’m being told by others, and we need one that will galvanize and energize people to get out; not just fear! Even with the fear of TRUMP and the dems high registration advantage, trump still got 45% of the vote in that district!
And special elections are the purview of the motivated voter. So, 55D-45R in the general concerns me since our voters may not be motivated for the special absent a strong message. Not having a legit message to motivate D’s will prove electorally fatal.
It is my understanding that under Art. II, sec. 6 of our State Constitution the “presiding officer” of the affected chamber – not the Governor – gets to set the special election date in case of a vacancy occurring in that chamber during the time the chamber is in session. Ironically, if BHL would wait until the eve of her LG inauguration to resign her Senate seat, she would be able to – the next day after her swearing in – set the date for the special election to fill her vacated Senate seat. She would then be the “presiding officer” in the Senate as LG. If she would resign after the GA returns on the second Tues. in Jan. but before her inauguration, McBride – presumably by then the Pres. pro temp, would set the special election date.
If he wanted to drive turnout, he could also support Senator Henry’s expected bill on legalization.
Practically speaking, the D leadership will determine the date.
Although…and I don’t even remember what race it was, SB Woo, in his capacity as presiding officer, once set a date for a special election, and the D’s were monumentally pissed. Anyone with a longer memory than mine? The Holloway, Sr. race perhaps?
I don’t think Carney is especially troubled by the thought of an R Senate.
The message, which the lead democrats seems to think is irrelevant, is lacking thus far.
Seriously? The candidate just got selected last Wednesday and most of us are still engaged with the holiday.
Does anyone here have any data on whether or not people in the 10th are going to be motivated by promises of an increase in a minimum wage?
Sen. Henry’s bill, as currently proposed, is a path to legalization, but may not be the best for the State. Compare the initiatives that legalized in Colorado with the one in Washington State, for example. Colorado’s gives permits for grow houses, vendors–more than one per county–lab reports for quality, and a 25% tax on cannabis. It set up a bureaucracy to administer the bill. In Washington State, the Liquor Control Board has added cannabis as another product line.
A quick look at Sen. Henry’s bill seems to legalize one sales center per county. Is it necessary to set up a new state monopoly to legalize but severely limit the number of outlets that can sell the product? Would it not be easy enough to set up regulations for vendors and allow private businesses to compete for several licenses in each county?
I want to see cannabis legalized, but, even more importantly, right a wrong that has prevented farmers from growing a cash crop that could help feed their families and grow the economy: low-THC content, non-psychoactive industrial hemp. Hemp was used for many years as a standard in rope, maritime uses, clothing, oil, and even foods up until about World War 2, when DuPont got the government to outlaw it because it competed with their new product, nylon, also used for rope.
Two years ago, the Assembly voted to study it, but limited the studies to qualified educational institutions, such as UD. The hoops needing to be jumped were so extremely burdensome, that nothing has happened on the topic since.
With a down economy and a looming budget deficit for the State, shouldn’t farmers willing to take the chance in Kent or Sussex be able to buy the seed, harvest it, and then benefit from a cash crop that would be easy to grow, improve their soil, feed their families, and be renewable?
It is only because of the cannabis laws that an industrial hemp crop cannot be grown. That should change, and one of the fine educational institutions in our State needs to be encouraged to step up to the plate and study it.
So, let’s see. A national Pew poll shows support for a $15 minimum wage at 58% yes-41% no. A CBS NYTimes poll shows support for a $10.10 minimum wage at 71% yes and 26% no.
But let’s not run on a Democratic issue with such support. Let’s base our campaign on–what exactly?
And, yes, Cassandra, seriously. Regardless of when the candidate was chosen, we’ve known since Nov. 10 that there was going to be a Special Election. Maybe someone is working on a serious strategy that will drive the D’s out in droves.
That’s what I’m trying to do by suggesting this course of action. Anyone with another plan is encouraged to lay it out there.
I’ll bet we run on “Our candidate is slightly less terrible than the Republican.”
That always wins. On paper.
process and decision should have occurred MUCH earlier – I don’t care to hazard who and why this occurred vis a vis timing or for that matter assign responsibility. We all can remember the disaster for the NCC President of Council special election not so many years ago. The lack of motivation, organization, driving message- was striking. What are the concerns of the 10th Senate super voters? are those issues more reflective of Bruce Ennis’s district or Brian Townsend’s district or somewhere in between. Please tell me that polling has been done- Stephanie Hansen is a very good candidate- hopefully the organizers and organization can match getting the needed voters out.
So we don’t have any data on what voters in the 10th might be motivated by, then.
Message and strategy comes from the candidate, who hasn’t been one for a complete week yet.
process and decision should have occurred MUCH earlier
It would have been good to have this done earlier, but I don’t know what might have delayed that. But certainly the Ds are not especially good at succession planning outside of the played out your turn business.
The Dems already shot themselves in foot. The candate they chose is extremely flawed. She was a terrible council president, who was married to the swamp king himself , Chris Roberts and his dad who also sold his office to the highest bidder. She is not from the MOT area but from Bear. It is simply time to drain the swamp in Dover. Why would any one vote for this failed council member. Haven’t the Dems learned any thing from the Clinton presidential run.Why saddle the party with the tittle of Pro Corruption.
I figured that would be the game plan. I assume Stephanie has an answer for that, but we all know what having answers counts for.
It is a strange district. It includes most of the Newark Charter 5 mile radius, the over 55 communities near Middletown, a piece of the 301 bypass, Newark and Glasgow high schools. Population centers above the canal in Newark and below in Middletown. This will be a tough one for the Ds, especially once the ideas on how to plug a $350 million budget deficit start floating out.
The typical R game plan. Define your opponent and get D’s to stay home.
It works, especially when the D’s do nothing to motivate their voters. Check out this year’s rust belt results, if you need proof.
But let’s wait and do some polling on minimum wage before we act like Democrats. Or at least Democrats before the Third Way took over the Party. That’s the ticket.
via Puck.
“I don’t think Carney is especially troubled by the thought of an R Senate.”
Bin. Go.
And neither is the House leadership ala Big Val and Pete
Thanks to Rufus for at least trying to answer my question. The point being, of course, that whatever gets focused on to motivate voters needs to be focused on voters in the 10th not on some generic Dem.
Gee, I never thought of that. Nice to have my own personal little troll, though.
It’s pretty plain you hadn’t thought of it. It’s why you were pretty testy about being asked about it, yes?
C’mon, El Som. You know Cassandra decides what the salient points are and determines the parameters of the discussion. She’s the ultimate arbiter here. Also a mind reader apparently. If you deviate from the prescripted topics you didn’t answer her question or the most dreaded of clichéd mistakes, moving the goalposts.
You kids are extremely entertaining solely because you don’t know why. The more seriously you take yourselves the funnier and funnier it gets.
I pray for even more self-righteous sanctimony in the New Year, because not only do I need a regular fix, I need heavier doses. My tolerance is sky high.
I’ve been involved in a bleepload of special elections. Some wins, some losses. Special elections created due to death, resignation, removal from office (Atkins and this guy Richard Meyers who never got sworn in b/c he stole money from his civic association), and ascension to another office.
I think I have experience to share on what has worked and what hasn’t worked.
However, this blog has become little more than a chance for people to dismiss ideas. It sure as shit ain’t a place where anything that could be construed as liberal or progressive can be promoted w/o disparagement from the Self-Anointed.
I’ve thought through this idea, and I think it is perhaps the only way that D’s can win this seat. I know from experience how the R’s run in these contests and how the D’s won in the few instances that they’ve actually won.
The 10th SD is not a western Sussex district and doesn’t vote like a western Sussex district. It’s also a district, though, where party affiliation is not the be-all and end-all. How the bleep should I know? Well, because I worked on three senate redistrictings, have looked at the election results through the years, and have, I think, as good a handle on this district as anyone this side of Liberal Geek, who also knows the district well. Kowalko and Jaques, both of whom have sizable segments of the 10th RD, are strong supporters of minimum wage increases. They represent over 20,000 of the 34,000 registered voters in the 10th SD. They know, but Cassandra wants polling results. Why? Maybe she knows better than people who actually understand the district. Actually, she’s just in permanent troll mode now.
So, when someone with no knowledge decides she’s gonna play word games just b/c she gets her kicks that way, there’s no point in even offering up anything any more.
2016 was the year when people on this blog were shouted down by other people on this blog. Having proven to have been wrong every step of the way, the shouters are still trying to shut up the dissenters. No wonder traffic is down 300,000 since 2012.
You broke it, you bought it.
If you boys could step up your game you would not have to work so hard at denigrating my arguments. But I never expect much from the kid’s table Vanella.
Citydems made similar points and yet here you are pretending that I am trolling.
I’m not drinking the kool-aid here, fellas, so as long as that is what you are serving up, you can expect me to point that out.
Nobody can top you at the insult game, Cassandra. Pretty much all you being to the table any more. There were more facts in my most recent post than anything you’ve brought here.
But I forgot. It’s only YOUR version of what passes for facts that matter.
Hard to argue with someone more concerned about winning arguments than winning elections.
“But I forgot. It’s only YOUR version of what passes for facts that matter.”
And now you know how the rest of us feel when we read your posts. Because only someone who can’t stand to have his echo chamber not echo for him could possibly object to someone asking rational questions and then procede to find fault with daring to challenge the only experience that matters. To you, at any rate.
Rational questions. You haven’t asked one yet in this post.
And, of course, you haven’t responded to any of the information in the post.
But, it’s not about that at this point.
Not surprised you missed the one Rufus K took a shot at. Takes a lot of energy to puff yourself up to pretend your “experience” can’t be challenged. Even by a rational question that might undermine your one size fits all approach.
You’re officially full of it. I went back to look at what Rufus K wrote. It was a description of the district. No questions. A good description, I might add. Here it is:
“It is a strange district. It includes most of the Newark Charter 5 mile radius, the over 55 communities near Middletown, a piece of the 301 bypass, Newark and Glasgow high schools. Population centers above the canal in Newark and below in Middletown. This will be a tough one for the Ds, especially once the ideas on how to plug a $350 million budget deficit start floating out.”
I’ve pointed out how the district has a majority of its voters represented by Kowalko and Jaques, over 20K of the 34K voters. I agree w/Rufus K that this will be a tough district to win. Hence, the purpose of my post. How to win it. I asked for alternatives.
Instead, you offer ad hominem attacks of my ‘experience’ which, however flawed it may be, is real experience in special elections. Not some word from on high, just an attempt to share my experience.
Folks, this entire thread and the ritualistic hijacking of a piece designed to provoke ideas, symbolizes DL jumping the shark this year. Once jumped, you can’t unjump it.
Not to interfere with you two bickering at each other, but I’m still curious as to whether or not the legalization bill suggested by Senator Henry might be another issue in this race, and whether or not Ms. Hansen would support it if she were to win. I’m told Mr. Marino would not.
It seems to me that the first step for Democrats in holding the seat is to recognize that Marino’s message will be that a divided Senate would be a benefit to Delaware. He’s going to run on the fact that it was Democrats who blew a $200-350 million hole in this year’s budget and placed schools, roads, and police in jeopardy of being underfunded. (It does not matter if this is the truth or not–we have already discovered that this year.)
Then if his handlers are smart they will pick up two items from Colin Bonini–civil asset forfeiture and legalization–which are both items that seem to play well with swing Dems and Independents, particularly if one could come up with some stats (no matter how questionable) about how many people in this district have lost property or how many young people have been hit with convictions for marijuana use, effectively ruining the rest of their lives as the remainder of the nation marches forward–and his legalization argument would be along the lines of Colorado with attendant tax boom.
He would then point out that the time to worry about social legislation is over–that DE already has marriage equality and transgender rights, and what has that all done for the economy of the State? If the Dems attempt to run the $15 minimum wage, he should come back using stats about jobs lost when the minimum wage goes up, and claim to voters that it will cost, say, 1,000 people in the district their jobs if this goes through. Again, it doesn’t matter if these are real facts. It just matters if he can get them out there, and as we all know he will have money to do so.
In the meantime I would target every family with kids in Newark Charter and tell them that with the incoming charter-friendly US Secretary of Education Delaware needs Republicans in charge of some part of the government if they don’t want to see all the US DOE money dry up as it will to a completely Democratic state. He’ll point out that this isn’t a threat, but a political reality–that DE benefited grandly from RTTT $$ because we were all Democratic with a Democrat in the White House, and we can hardly expect to be at the front of the line any more, but we can keep from being at the back of it. And that their child’s education depends on it …
Finally he’ll emphasize that with the budget gap, John Carney in office, and Dems in control of the GA, the only way to avoid new taxes instead of emphasizing budget discipline is to have Republicans in charge of the Senate to rein in their “tax and spend.” (Note that he won’t care that this contradicts a major point above–different audiences, slick rationalization.)
He will then predict that his opponent, as a BHL protege, can be expected to try dirty tricks in the 10 days before the election, and that they have to be on guard for it.
That’s what I’d be doing if I were his campaign manager.
The Democratic problem in this district is that there is no particular and compelling reason to vote for Hansen except to save the Senate for Democrats and keep Marino out. We already know that this is a losing strategy this year. Honestly, the fact that she hasn’t already hit the ground with a campaign slogan and agenda (as far as I’ve seen, anyway) is an indicator that the Democrats are in deep shit in this special, and Marino needs to be treated as the favorite if you want to have a chance to hold the seat.
Of course there’s always the chance that Marino won’t be savvy enough to run a strong campaign, but I wouldn’t want to bet that way.
That description of the district was more on point than the Pew poll you cited. You could have avoided this if you could deign to answer the question posed rather than pretend it wasn’t worth your time.
So if you are turning up your nose at a reasonable question, you’ve just seen how your 2017 will go.
Steve, one would hope he’s that smart with regards to taking advice from Senator Bonini. Thus far, he is not. That leaves an opening for Ms. Hansen if she’s prepared to use it.
@Will M–I’m only pointing out that with the right moves the special is his to win or lose–he’s in the driver’s seat if he plays it correctly.
If he doesn’t–and this is politics, so who knows?–then he lets his opponent back in the game.
If I were the GOP I would have used some of the money to buy him a first-rate campaign manager and told him he was a soldier, not a general, if he wanted to be in the General Assembly.
Being the DE GOP I doubt they’ve done that. But I wanted to point out just how fragile the Democratic hold on this seat really is.
His refusal to play on those issues is already inviting a Libertarian challenger into the race, so he might just lose it if the margins are anything like his 2014 run. Special election, I know, so those numbers aren’t likely to hold up. Still an opportunity for Ms. Hansen that might work better for her than raising the minimum wage.
As a former cop, I doubt that civil forfeiture or legalization would make it on to his platform. I’ve also seen a bunch of his posts on Facebook about how anti-transgender rights he is.
But Steve’s right about one thing for sure, this year the rules are changed. A Republican can change their stripes day-to-day and incur no political cost.
@DelDem–Speaking as someone who has stepped up to defend both cassandra and pandora more often than most anybody else, here’s what I’m tired of …
… reading about your goddamn contributor infighting over who should leave the blog. Fight over the goddamn issues and spare us the rest. Go have a DL contributors’ dinner at some bar, get splooshed, hash it out and then get back to us.
Otherwise stop hijacking your own goddamn threads with high school melodrama we don’t actually give a shit about.
I’m with you on the hijacking. But won’t tolerate the modified gaslighting either.
And my excuse this morning is a 3 hour wait on my plane to come home. It’s this or listening to the guy across the aisle yell at the AA agent.
@cassandra–It’s this or listening to the guy across the aisle yell at the AA agent.
Given how this thread is going, I am thinking that the guy yelling is going to be looking better and better.
Aside from that–gaslighting–it’s unfortunately the new normal in American politics. What’s fascinating is how quickly Democrats have picked it up from the GOP.
The guy yelling may be escorted off of this plane.
Democrats can’t afford to gaslight one another especially when the topic is getting Ds out to vote for a special.
And I suspect the big topic is going to be the current revenue deficit as a commenter above noted. Which strikes me as a way to deflect from more interesting issues.
@cassandra–hidden in this sentence is the key to Dems winning this special–Democrats can’t afford to gaslight one another especially when the topic is getting Ds out to vote for a special.
The key for Dems in this one is unromantic turn-out. The Dems should be following the model Bryan Townsend used to win his first election–relentless canvassing and quiet, under-the-radar campaigning. Hansen has to approach this election as the underdog running against an incumbent in a district with a narrow Dem registration edge and a lot of Independents more unmotivated to care than up for grabs. She wins by turning out her vote, not based on the strength of a message.
Given that she really doesn’t yet appear to have a message, that’s how she wins–getting the D’s, door by door, apartment by apartment, to come out and vote. Tell people in apartment houses at their front door that you support a $15 minimum wage–that will work. She’s not, from all reports, a charismatic “big message” candidate, so she has to play “small ball” to win.
One of those more interesting issues, which would actually serve to close the revenue deficit, is legalization. It could also be argued that it would benefit the environment for more Delaware farmers to grow hemp vs more environmentally damaging crops. If Ms. Hansen’s background is in environmental issues, that may be right up her alley. If Mr. Marino’s law enforcement background and the DEGOP’s lack of intelligence precludes him from making that leap, I’m still hoping to get some insight from Delaware Liberals as to how that issue might play in the 10th SD and ideally whether or not Ms. Hansen would go there.
Well said Steve Newton. Thanks for the needed slap across the face. I lost my temper at one of El Som’s post denigrating his own blog. I am deleting my anger posts. My apologies to all.
Who cares about this special election. Tell me more about the kid’s table. I’m jonesing. I’m dope sick and need more of your sanctimony. You’re so incredibly wise and politically successful! Please give me more. I’m dying here.
Also, maybe professors Newton & Marshall can elaborate on this highjacking metaphor. It’s so creative and illustrative.
LOL, RE Vanella. Sanctimony is a two way street here. Bernie Bro Purists and us traitorous pragmatists can be equally self righteous.
Ah, the Bernie Bro epithet. That’s the stuff. Yeaaaa. I mean Cassandra has much better goods, more pure. But when your in the sickness you’ll take what you can get. Tell me more about your losing strategies… But not too much.
I see you did not object to the Purist label though. #truth.
Your worthless ideas and meaningless rhetoric humor me more than I can even describe. This is my New Years resolution; to make your boring nonsense exciting. I take solace in your application of the Cassandra defense. Make a dumb and empty claim and find meaning in me ignoring it. Plus a hashtag! You’re so clever.
Will, my group and I are going to sit down and talk to Mrs Hansen next week and I just put your question about the legalization bill into the list of questions we’re sending to her.
We can only hope that the Republicans WIN and keep a better check on the Dems and not allow them to waste the Taxpayers monies, on stupid deals like the past administration put together. Bloom Energy, Sevone, Fisker, Astra Zeneca.
Thank you, Josh. What is your group and will you be publishing her answers anywhere?
I’m part of Delaware United. I’m not sure if we’re going to publish any of her answers or not, nevertheless when I know more about her stance I’ll let you know somehow.
Cool. I’m Will Jones on FB if that helps.
Amen.
We can only hope that the Republicans WIN and keep a better check on the Dems and not allow them to waste the Taxpayers monies, on stupid deals like the past administration put together. Bloom Energy, Sevone, Fisker, Astra Zeneca.