Delaware Dem

Primary Day Open Thread [9.9.14]

Here is the state of play in the US Senate. The GOP needs to gain, or net, 6 seats to win 51 seats, which will be enough for a Republican majority. Remember, if they win just 50, chances are highly likely that Vice President Biden will have the tiebreaking vote and thus give the Dems the majority.

They have three seats already in their pocket: West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. They need three more. Their targets, and of course, the competitive races are Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado and Alaska.

The Dems have been doing well in Alaska and Colorado, so let’s assume we win those two races. The recent poll out of Iowa looks good for Braley, so let’s assume for now that the Dems retain that seat. That leaves North Carolina, which a recent poll paid for by the NRSC shows a tied race (which may mean that in actuality Hagan is leading), Arkansas and Louisiana. The GOP appears to have taken a consistent lead based on all the polls above in Arkansas, though it remains a toss up. In Louisiana, we have two polls showing both a Landreiu and a Cassidy win, so that is a toss up.

The GOP needs to win all three. And they need to do so while retaining all their seats. They seem to be doing a good job of that in Kentucky recently, with McConnell taking a consistent lead over the Democrat Grimes, but that is still a competitive race that could go either way. And the Dems still lead in Georgia.

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